--- title: "🔥 [Review] SMIC: Suffocating Low Volume — Eye of the Storm or a Dead End?" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/38681587.md" description: "📉【Admitting Mistakes and Making Corrections】First, a Mea Culpa (my fault). In my analysis at the beginning of the week, I predicted that this week could see a strong rebound to the 72.00 level to test the pressure of the MA60. The market is always the best teacher—the K-line movement was weaker than I expected, with the bulls already exhausted around 71.95. Admitting misjudgment is part of trading; we respect the market. But precisely because of this weakness, an extremely fascinating "technical singularity" has emerged in the current market situation..." datetime: "2026-02-12T04:22:06.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/38681587.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/38681587.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/38681587.md) author: "[三鹿奶粉](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/18038012.md)" --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/38681587.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/38681587.md) # 🔥 [Review] SMIC: Suffocating Low Volume — Eye of the Storm or a Dead End? 📉 **【Acknowledging Mistakes and Making Corrections】** First, a Mea Culpa (my fault). In my analysis at the beginning of the week, I predicted that this week could see a strong rebound to the 72.00 level to test the pressure of the MA60. The market is always the best teacher—the K-line movement was weaker than I expected, with the bulls already exhausted around 71.95. **Admitting misjudgment is part of trading; we respect the market.** But precisely because of this weakness, the current market situation has presented an extremely fascinating **"technical singularity."** 🧬 **【Current Technical Structure: Extreme Compression】** Look at today's 15-minute K-line chart of $SMIC(00981.HK). The Bollinger Bands have narrowed to an extreme. - **Drying Up of Volume**: Trading volume in the first two hours today shrank significantly year-on-year; main capital is in a "dormant" state. - **Entangled Moving Averages**: On the daily chart, the stock price is sandwiched between the MA5 (69.87) and MA10 (70.36). In technical analysis, this is called **"Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP)"**. 👉 **A Vivid Analogy**: The current stock price is like a **"spring pressed underwater."** Today's (Thursday) drowsy movement is actually storing energy. Both bulls and bears are waiting for a trigger, neither daring to fire easily today. This calmness is usually a **precursor to a trend change**. ⏳ **【Time Window Script: Friday's Liquidity Test】** According to my **Time Cycle Model**, this week's **Volatility Spike** will occur **tomorrow (Friday)**. If today is "dawdling," tomorrow is likely the "decisive battle." - **Scenario Projection**: Due to heavy Overhead Supply, it's difficult for the market to directly V-reverse. Main players are highly likely to use the weekend effect to conduct an **"ultimate washout"** on Friday. - **Key Action**: Watch for whether there will be a **volume-driven break below 69.00**. Such a rapid sell-off is often intended to wipe out margin positions and stop-loss orders, thereby creating blood-stained chips. 🛡️ **【Contrarian Trading Strategy & Iron-Clad Risk Control】** For friends who like **Contrarian Trading**, tomorrow might be the only "sweet spot" this week. - **Focus Zone**: If panic selling occurs during the session, the **66.50 - 68.00** area is the lower edge of the previous high-density chip concentration zone, possessing strong support attributes. - **⚠️ Risk Warning (Must Read)**: 1. **Don't Catch a Falling Knife**: Contrarian trading is inherently counter-trend, with low win rates but high payouts. 2. **Position Management**: **Absolutely no heavy positions!** It is recommended to use a 10%-15% observation position for trial and error. 3. **Stop-Loss Principle**: If it effectively breaks below **65.00**, it means the trend has completely collapsed. You must exit unconditionally without any illusions. 🧠 **【Trader's Notes】** Trading is not about predicting the future, but about preparing for various possibilities. Today, not only must you control your hands, but also **"you can even turn off the software."** Don't wear down your mentality in today's garbage time. Save your bullets for tomorrow's real **"golden pit"** (or "trap"). Let the market come to you. 🧘‍♂️ ### Related Stocks - [SMIC (600810.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600810.CN.md) - [SMIC (00981.HK)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00981.HK.md) - [SMIC (688981.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/688981.CN.md) - [Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (HSMD.SG)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HSMD.SG.md)