---
title: "📉 SMIC Review: The suffocating moment after extreme volume contraction, should we run or stay?"
description: "💥【First, stand straight and take the hit】As usual, start the review by looking at the wrong questions. Yesterday, I predicted that $SMIC(00981.HK) would have a small positive candle for a &#34;techni"
type: "topic"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/38687144.md"
published_at: "2026-02-12T08:27:38.000Z"
author: "[三鹿奶粉](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/18038012)"
---

# 📉 SMIC Review: The suffocating moment after extreme volume contraction, should we run or stay?

💥 **【First, Stand Straight and Take the Hit】**  
As usual, start the review by looking at the wrong answers.  
Yesterday's forecast was that $SMIC(00981.HK) would have a small "technical rebound" green candle today, but the market turned out weaker than expected. The main players chose **"playing dead with shrinking volume"**, with a daily amplitude of only 2.3%, closing stuck at 69.80, neither reclaiming 70 nor breaking below 68. To friends who were expecting a rebound today, my apologies. The market voted with its feet, and we must respect the price action. 🙇‍♂️

🔍 **【Hardcore Breakdown: The Calm Before the Storm】**  
Today's price action is exactly like **"the last second before the pressure cooker valve pops"**.

1.  **Volume Halved**: Turnover plummeted from 6.1 billion yesterday to 2.8 billion. This shows both bulls and bears are sharpening their bayonets in the trenches, neither daring to fire the first shot.
2.  **Moving Average Strangle**: The daily close at 69.80 is precisely stuck below the MA5 (69.86) and MA10 (70.36). Overhead, the MA60 (71.60) acts as a **"high-pressure red line"** suppressing any rise.
3.  **Bollinger Bands Extremely Tight**: The 15-minute Bollinger Bands have narrowed to their limit. **Technical common sense tells us: extreme convergence is inevitably followed by abnormal divergence.**

⚖️ **【Tomorrow's Script: Doomsday Roulette vs. Golden Pit】**  
Based on the current time cycle and chip structure, **tomorrow (Friday) will be the volatility extreme point for this week**. This "dead silence" won't last long; the trend change is coming tomorrow morning.

🔴 **Script A: Panic Stampede (High Probability)**

-   **Logic**: A prolonged stalemate must lead to a fall. If the morning session cannot break above 70.20 with volume, disappointed profit-takers and stop-loss orders will join forces. The main players will likely use the weekend effect to **"dig a pit downward"**.
-   **Key Level**: Watch this week's low of **68.25**. Once effectively broken, panic selling will gush out instantly.

🟢 **Script B: Desperate Counterattack (Low Probability)**

-   **Logic**: Only after completing a wave of "bloody washout" will big money enter to create a V-shaped reversal.
-   **Opportunity Point**: If a sharp drop with shrinking volume appears in the **66.50 - 67.50** range, that might be a gift from the main players to left-side traders.

🛠️ **【Operation Tips & Strict Risk Control Orders】**

🗡️ **Aggressive Players (Right-side Followers):**

-   If the morning session breaks below **68.20** with volume and the bounce is weak, don't harbor illusions. This is a signal to exit short-term positions.
-   Defensive Level: Only stabilize above **69.00** to pause.

🛡️ **Conservative Players (Left-side Ambushers):**

-   **Catching Falling Knives Warning** ⚠️: Left-side trading carries extreme risk, equivalent to picking up coins on railroad tracks.
-   **Position Control**: If you want to bet on that "golden pit", **position size is strictly prohibited from exceeding 20%**.
-   **Sniper Point**: Place limit orders around **66.50**. Remember, wait for the price to fall and hit your order; don't chase the buy.
-   **Stop Loss**: If the close breaks below **65.50**, unconditionally admit the loss and exit.

💡 **【Final Summary】**  
Candlesticks don't lie; the position at 69.80 is walking a tightrope.  
Before 10:30 AM tomorrow, it is recommended to **watch more, move less**. Let the bullets fly for a while; don't fall in the "garbage time" before dawn.

The stock market carries risks; invest with caution. The above is only a technical review and does not constitute investment advice.

### Related Stocks

- [00981.HK - SMIC](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00981.HK.md)
- [688981.CN - SMIC](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/688981.CN.md)
- [HSMD.SG - SMIC HK SDR 5to1](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HSMD.SG.md)

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> **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.
