--- title: "📉 SMIC Review: The suffocating moment after extreme volume contraction, should we run or stay?" description: "💥【First, stand straight and take the hit】As usual, start the review by looking at the wrong questions. Yesterday, I predicted that $SMIC(00981.HK) would have a small positive candle for a "techni" type: "topic" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/38687144.md" published_at: "2026-02-12T08:27:38.000Z" author: "[三鹿奶粉](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/18038012)" --- # 📉 SMIC Review: The suffocating moment after extreme volume contraction, should we run or stay? 💥 **【First, Stand Straight and Take the Hit】** As usual, start the review by looking at the wrong answers. Yesterday's forecast was that $SMIC(00981.HK) would have a small "technical rebound" green candle today, but the market turned out weaker than expected. The main players chose **"playing dead with shrinking volume"**, with a daily amplitude of only 2.3%, closing stuck at 69.80, neither reclaiming 70 nor breaking below 68. To friends who were expecting a rebound today, my apologies. The market voted with its feet, and we must respect the price action. 🙇‍♂️ 🔍 **【Hardcore Breakdown: The Calm Before the Storm】** Today's price action is exactly like **"the last second before the pressure cooker valve pops"**. 1. **Volume Halved**: Turnover plummeted from 6.1 billion yesterday to 2.8 billion. This shows both bulls and bears are sharpening their bayonets in the trenches, neither daring to fire the first shot. 2. **Moving Average Strangle**: The daily close at 69.80 is precisely stuck below the MA5 (69.86) and MA10 (70.36). Overhead, the MA60 (71.60) acts as a **"high-pressure red line"** suppressing any rise. 3. **Bollinger Bands Extremely Tight**: The 15-minute Bollinger Bands have narrowed to their limit. **Technical common sense tells us: extreme convergence is inevitably followed by abnormal divergence.** ⚖️ **【Tomorrow's Script: Doomsday Roulette vs. Golden Pit】** Based on the current time cycle and chip structure, **tomorrow (Friday) will be the volatility extreme point for this week**. This "dead silence" won't last long; the trend change is coming tomorrow morning. 🔴 **Script A: Panic Stampede (High Probability)** - **Logic**: A prolonged stalemate must lead to a fall. If the morning session cannot break above 70.20 with volume, disappointed profit-takers and stop-loss orders will join forces. The main players will likely use the weekend effect to **"dig a pit downward"**. - **Key Level**: Watch this week's low of **68.25**. Once effectively broken, panic selling will gush out instantly. 🟢 **Script B: Desperate Counterattack (Low Probability)** - **Logic**: Only after completing a wave of "bloody washout" will big money enter to create a V-shaped reversal. - **Opportunity Point**: If a sharp drop with shrinking volume appears in the **66.50 - 67.50** range, that might be a gift from the main players to left-side traders. 🛠️ **【Operation Tips & Strict Risk Control Orders】** 🗡️ **Aggressive Players (Right-side Followers):** - If the morning session breaks below **68.20** with volume and the bounce is weak, don't harbor illusions. This is a signal to exit short-term positions. - Defensive Level: Only stabilize above **69.00** to pause. 🛡️ **Conservative Players (Left-side Ambushers):** - **Catching Falling Knives Warning** ⚠️: Left-side trading carries extreme risk, equivalent to picking up coins on railroad tracks. - **Position Control**: If you want to bet on that "golden pit", **position size is strictly prohibited from exceeding 20%**. - **Sniper Point**: Place limit orders around **66.50**. Remember, wait for the price to fall and hit your order; don't chase the buy. - **Stop Loss**: If the close breaks below **65.50**, unconditionally admit the loss and exit. 💡 **【Final Summary】** Candlesticks don't lie; the position at 69.80 is walking a tightrope. Before 10:30 AM tomorrow, it is recommended to **watch more, move less**. Let the bullets fly for a while; don't fall in the "garbage time" before dawn. The stock market carries risks; invest with caution. The above is only a technical review and does not constitute investment advice. ### Related Stocks - [00981.HK - SMIC](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00981.HK.md) - [688981.CN - SMIC](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/688981.CN.md) - [HSMD.SG - SMIC HK SDR 5to1](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HSMD.SG.md) --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.