Coinbase (Trans): Last Year Was an 'Investment Year,' This Year Will See Prudent Cost Control
" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/38719968.md" description: "Below is Dolphin Research's transcript of Coinbase's FY25 Q4 earnings call. For the earnings analysis, please refer to 'Weak Market + Poor Performance: When Will Coinbase Hit Bottom?'1. Key Earnings Highlights:a. Capital Management:i. Buybacks: $1.7bn spent on share repurchases in 2025 (fully offsetting SBC dilution).ii. New Authorization: BOD approved additional $2bn buyback program.iii. Asset Accumulation: Committed to using cash flow for opportunistic Bitcoin purchases..." datetime: "2026-02-13T07:38:17.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/38719968.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/38719968.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/38719968.md) author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/news/dolphin.md)" --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/38719968.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/38719968.md) #Coinbase (Trans): Last Year Was an 'Investment Year,' This Year Will See Prudent Cost Control
**Below is Dolphin Research's transcript of Coinbase's FY25 Q4 earnings call. For earnings analysis, see** [**Bad Market + Bad Earnings: When Will Coinbase Hit Bottom?**](https://longbridge.cn/topics/38718107?channel=t38718107&invite-code=355628&app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&locale=zh-CN) **I. Key Earnings Highlights** **1\. Capital Management:** a. Buybacks: $1.7bn spent in 2025 (fully offsetting SBC dilution). b. New authorization: BOD approved additional $2bn buyback program. c. Asset accumulation: Committed to buying Bitcoin dips with cash flow. **2\. 2026 Q1 Guidance:** a. Trading revenue: ~$420mn generated as of Feb. 10. b. Subscriptions & services: Projected at $550-630mn (impacted by lower rates and crypto price declines). c. Opex: Expected to remain flat at $925-975mn for T&D + G&A. **II. Earnings Call Details** **2.1 Management Commentary** **1\. Everything Exchange** a. Vision: "One platform for all assets". Now offers derivatives, prediction markets, and ~10,000 US equity tickers. b. Users increasingly cross-trade crypto with commodities and stocks. Q4 derivatives volume and revenue hit records. c. Echo acquisition aims to tokenize private equity; engaging SEC on compliant tokenized equities. **2\. Stablecoin & Payments** a. USDC custody at all-time high, supporting $75bn market cap. b. "AI agents will default to stablecoin payments". Bots already settling via Base chain (cost <1¢, instant). c. 2026 focus: Expand utility via deeper payment platform integration. **3\. On-chain Ecosystem** a. Base becoming "home" for AI on-chain activity with rising volume. b. 2026 plan: More DeFi features in main app to boost self-custody adoption. **4\. Institutional Services** a. Custodies ~12% of global crypto assets (more than next 4 competitors combined). b. Partners include 5 G-SIBs and 150 govt agencies with strong stickiness. **2.2 Q&A** **Q: CLARITY Act progress - any breakthroughs?** A: Optimistic about material progress in coming months. Senate and agencies making good progress. Industry united on core demands - a win-win for banks, crypto firms and citizens. Focus remains on customer priorities: preserving crypto advantages while ensuring fair competition. Given GENIUS Act passed just 6 months ago, we're ensuring no conflicts with existing laws. Confident in positive outcome. **Q: Base's contribution to 2026 subscription revenue?** A: Clarification: Base monetization has direct/indirect paths. Sequencer fees go to "other trading revenue", not subscriptions. Indirectly, Base powers full-stack products (e.g. USDC activity drives interest income). No specific 2026 target, but goal is attracting quality users/developers. **Q: Developer incentives?** A: Multiple approaches: Base Grants funding, improved toolkits (especially for agent wallets), and potential Base token. Helping devs grow across payments, trading and DeFi. **Q: Most exciting underappreciated opportunities?** A: Two standouts: 1) Everything Exchange's vision for 24/7 global transparent trading. Goal is tokenizing all tradable assets to democratize access. 2) Stablecoin payments - still early stage. Global payments follow least resistance - stablecoins dominate on speed/cost/coverage. Just 0.5% of GDP is on-chain today; could reach 10-20% in 10 years. **Q: Everything Exchange monetization timeline?** A: Diversification remains core. 2026 focus: expanding tradable assets. Derivatives leading growth post-options integration. Prediction markets and equities launched recently - will share details after full quarter. 12 products now generate >$100mn annually (6 over $250mn). Flywheel: more assets → more user retention → more monetization. **Q: Would CLARITY Act hurt USDC revenue if rewards banned?** A: No. Senate draft discusses reward limits vs. House bipartisan version. Ironically, ban would boost our margins as we currently rebate most Circle economics to users. But we oppose this - regulated stablecoins need global competitiveness. **Q: Buybacks/M&A in downturn?** A: Strong $11bn cash position. Repurchased $1.7bn (8.2mn shares) from Q4 2025-Feb 10 2026. 2025 saw 10 deals including Deribit (largest crypto acquisition). Will continue Bitcoin accumulation, buybacks and opportunistic M&A. **Q: Prediction markets adoption?** A: Fully launched 2 weeks ago - early but strong interest. Super Bowl drove first-time usage. Partnered with Kalshi (non-exclusive) but could build own platform. **Q: Crypto winter indicators?** A: Avoid predictions. Actually "enjoy" downturns for focused building and cheap Bitcoin/stock buys. Current metrics healthy - users net buying. Volatility more psychological than fundamental. **Q: 2026 spend prioritization?** A: 2025 was heavy investment year (marketing, USDC rewards, M&A costs). 2026 more cautious - Q1 opex flat. Will stay flexible adjusting to market conditions. **Q: Yesterday's trading halt - technical or systemic?** A: Isolated technical issue (retail/Prime only) unrelated to volume/market. Resolved quickly. Ongoing infrastructure upgrades improve resilience. **Q: Everything Exchange customer acquisition?** A: "Asset accumulation flywheel": Trust → custody → multiple products → higher retention. Crypto upgrades global finance - better services drive asset growth. **Q: 2026 M&A focus?** A: 2025 saw 10 deals accelerating roadmap. 2026 priorities: Everything Exchange capabilities, on-chain infrastructure, stablecoin/payments. **Q: Base's value amid L2 competition?** A: Base leads as "universal tool" - payments, trading, DeFi at L1 security + L2 speed. Adding privacy features and exploring token to boost ecosystem. **Q: Stablecoin growth drivers?** A: Recent pause due to: 1) Risk-off reducing speculative activity. 2) Shift from reserves to higher-frequency payments/remittances. 2026 optimism from: Deeper product integration and GENIUS Act adoption (150 companies onboarded in 3 months). US regulated stablecoins must stay competitive globally via rewards. **Q: USDC balances update?** A: No Jan/Feb 2026 data. Refer to shareholder letter for YE 2025 details. **Q: Fee compression from Simple to Advanced/Coinbase One?** A: More volume shifting to Advanced/One. Members get low/zero fees but we earn spreads. No timeline but One membership growth is key focus. **Q: USDC commercialization timeline?** A: Focused on building payment verticals. Competing with Circle in some areas. 2026 goal: Make Base's USDC the best for biz payments. Revenue lags adoption curve. **Q: Retail trader activity?** A: Historically HODL in downturns, trade more in high volatility. Current active retail users net buying dips. Diversification (stocks, derivatives etc.) reduces cycle dependence.