--- title: "馃搲 Chinese New Year锝淗ang Seng Tech: The \"Double Dip\" Scenario After Volatility Convergence" description: "馃晵 Phase 1: February 16th (Monday 路 Half-day trading)銆怟eywords: Low-volume inducement 路 Oscillation around the central axis銆慣echnical pattern: Currently, the $Hang Seng TECH Index(STECH.HK) daily char" type: "topic" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/38720090.md" published_at: "2026-02-13T07:44:35.000Z" author: "[涓夐箍濂剁矇](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/18038012)" --- # 馃搲 Chinese New Year锝淗ang Seng Tech: The "Double Dip" Scenario After Volatility Convergence #### 馃晵 Phase 1: February 16th (Monday - Half Day) **\[Keywords: Thin Volume Inducement 路 Oscillation Pivot\]** - **Technical Pattern:** Currently, the $Hang Seng TECH Index(STECH.HK) daily chart is in the inertia zone of a bearish MA5/MA10 death cross. New Year's Eve has only a half trading day, and with the absence of mainland capital inflow, trading volume is expected to be extremely thin. - **Market Outlook:** This low-volume environment is highly prone to creating "false prosperity." RSI is consolidating near the low level of 40, and a low-volume "small hook" rebound may occur. - **Trading Signal:** Any price increase at this time is a **window to reduce positions**, not a signal to chase the rally. #### 馃晵 Phase 2: February 20th (Friday) **\[Keywords: Volatility Eruption 路 Breakout Reversal Day\]** - **Technical Pattern:** This is a core **"energy release point."** Based on the previous consolidation pattern, the ATR volatility has been suppressed to a critical level. - **Market Outlook:** Due to the accumulated selling pressure being released on this day, it is highly susceptible to a **gap down open** or a **one-sided decline**. If it breaks below the previous low, the technical picture will enter an accelerated downtrend channel. - **Risk Warning:** Beware of cascading technical stop-loss orders on that day. Do not easily try to catch the "falling knife" during the session. #### 馃晵 Phase 3: February 23rd (Monday) **\[Keywords: Divergence Trap 路 Resistance Level Pullback\]** - **Technical Pattern:** A typical "price rising with volume resistance" structure. The index may then pull back to test the MA10 (around the area) and face resistance. - **Market Outlook:** This is a highly deceptive rebound. The market may seem to be recovering in sentiment, but technically, the Money Flow Index (MFI) remains in an outflow state. This is the so-called **"reconfirmation after a bear trap."** - **Trading Signal:** It is recommended to take profits on rallies, or use it as a secondary short entry point within this downtrend channel. ### 馃徆 Trading Styles and Tactical Drills #### 1锔忊儯 Trend Followers (Aggressive) - **Logic:** Follow the downward slope of the MA20. - **Entry Point:** If it breaks down with volume on Feb 20th, enter a short position at market price. - **Stop Loss:** Exit if it stabilizes above the resistance. #### 2锔忊儯 Ambush Strategists (Left-side Trading - Risk Warning 鈿狅笍) - **Logic:** Bet on a pullback near the previous low, at the "bearish sentiment exhaustion point." - **Risk Warning:** Left-side trading is counter-trend gambling with a win rate below 35%. The downtrend channel is not yet broken, avoid heavy positions! - **Position Suggestion:** Use no more than **15%** as a test position, and must set a hard stop-loss. If there is an extreme high-volume bearish candlestick on Feb 20th, any bottom-fishing is strictly prohibited. #### 3锔忊儯 Profit Protectors (Conservative) - **Action:** Stay completely in cash over the holiday, or reduce positions to below 20%. - **Logic:** The volatility risk in international markets during the Spring Festival cannot be hedged. Wait until Feb 24th when A-shares resume, liquidity returns, and the MA5 line flattens out before looking for more certain opportunities. ### 馃挕 Yinyuan's Trading Journal Review The Hang Seng Tech Index is currently on the eve of breaking a **"false equilibrium."** Technically, it shows that major funds are locked in, but the MA20 moving average overhead acts as a heavy resistance. **In a nutshell:** The New Year's Eve rally is the "face," the slaughter on the fourth day is the "substance." In the absence of incremental capital, any rebound is for a deeper bottom test. > 鈿狅笍 \[Disclaimer\] The above analysis is purely technical speculation and does not constitute any investment advice. HK stocks are highly volatile, and liquidity is extremely poor during holidays. Please strictly enforce stop-loss discipline! ### Related Stocks - [07226.HK - XL2CSOPHSTECH](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07226.HK.md) - [STECH.HK - Hang Seng TECH Index](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/STECH.HK.md) - [03067.HK - ISHARESHSTECH](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03067.HK.md) - [07552.HK - XI2CSOPHSTECH](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07552.HK.md) - [03032.HK - HSTECH ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03032.HK.md) - [03033.HK - CSOP HS TECH](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03033.HK.md) - [513130.CN - Huatai-PB CSOP Hang Seng Technology ETF(QDII)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/513130.CN.md) - [03088.HK - CAM HS TECH](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03088.HK.md) - [159742.CN - Hang Seng TECH ETF I](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/159742.CN.md) --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.