--- title: "Tearing off the fig leaf of the 'Stock God': Why are geniuses often just lucky, while the naive investors are just unlucky?" description: "After reading Chapter 2 of "The Psychology of Money": In the arena of investment, to avoid being taken advantage of, you must engrave this sentence in your bones: "Everything is not as goo" type: "topic" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/38739043.md" published_at: "2026-02-14T01:42:02.000Z" author: "[哆啦A梦の彼女](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/12269917)" --- # Tearing off the fig leaf of the 'Stock God': Why are geniuses often just lucky, while the naive investors are just unlucky? Reflections on Chapter 2 of "The Psychology of Money" > In the brutal arena of investing, to avoid being a naive investor, you must engrave this phrase into your bones: "Nothing is as good or as bad as it seems." #### Faced with account gains and losses, we always like to find a simple "cause and effect" to comfort ourselves. But the harsh truth is that every outcome in life is largely guided by mysterious forces beyond personal effort.   1. The Coin Toss of Fate: Luck and Risk are Identical Twins Luck and risk are essentially the same force acting in opposite directions. Bill Gates is undoubtedly a supremely intelligent genius, but in 1968, he happened to attend Lakeside School, one of the very few schools in the world that had a computer—a "one-in-a-million" stroke of luck. Now consider his equally smart, exceptionally business-savvy best friend, Kent Evans. He had the chance to become a co-founder of Microsoft. But he died in a mountain climbing accident before graduating high school, also a "one-in-a-million" probability, bearing the extreme fatal risk. In the roulette of life, they tossed the same coin; one encountered luck, the other encountered risk. 2. Between "Ruthless Decisiveness" and "Hopelessness," there is only a millimeter's distance. We always try to replicate the "success traits" of business giants, ignoring that if the outcome had been slightly different, these traits would become eternal evidence of guilt. Railroad tycoon Cornelius Vanderbilt built his vast commercial empire by flouting the law. Because he won, we praise him for having "visionary, rule-breaking foresight"; but if he had gone bankrupt back then, he would be a notorious criminal in history books. Mark Zuckerberg famously rejected Yahoo's $1 billion acquisition offer and is now hailed as a "genius who stuck to his beliefs"; conversely, Yahoo's rejection of Microsoft's high-priced offer is mocked across the internet as the act of a "greedy fool." The line between "bold innovation" and "reckless stupidity" is actually as thin as a millimeter, and often only clear in hindsight.   3. Abandon Extreme "Deities," Seek Universal Patterns Success is a terrible teacher; it seduces smart people into the illusion of "I'm invincible, I can't lose." Failure is also a terrible teacher; it makes you think your decisions are worthless, when in fact you might have made a good decision with an 80% win rate, but just happened to land in the unlucky 20% zone. Therefore, stop superstitiously studying those extreme billionaires or business disasters. The more extreme the outcome, the greater the influence of the polar forces of luck and risk, and the lower its practical reference value for you. We should seek more universal, widespread patterns. When evaluating your own or others' trading results, leave ample room for reverence towards "luck" and "risk." The true path of investment winners lies not in pursuing a single, get-rich-quick kill, but in building immense financial resilience: ensuring that no single bad investment or mistake can completely wipe you out. Only by preserving your chips and staying at the table can you keep playing until the scales of probability eventually tilt in your favor. ### Related Stocks - [MSFT.US - Microsoft](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFT.US.md) - [META.US - Meta Platforms](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/META.US.md) - [MSFL.US - GraniteShares 2x Long MSFT Daily ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFL.US.md) - [MSFO.US - YieldMax MSFT Option Income Strategy ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFO.US.md) - [MSFD.US - Direxion Daily MSFT Bear 1x Shares](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFD.US.md) - [MSFU.US - Direxion Daily MSFT Bull 2X Shares](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFU.US.md) - [MSFX.US - T-Rex 2X Long Microsoft Daily Target ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFX.US.md) - [MSFY.US - Kurv Yield Premium Strategy Microsoft MSFT ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFY.US.md) - [U.US - Unity Software](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/U.US.md) - [CLF.US - Cleveland Cliffs](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CLF.US.md) --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.