---
title: "Release schedule for key US macroeconomic data next week (February 16–20, 2026)"
description: "📅 Next week's key economic data and market expectations (including times). All times are in EST / Beijing Time (+13 h). Data expectations are based on current market consensus and forecasts from majo"
type: "topic"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/38745898.md"
published_at: "2026-02-15T19:57:48.000Z"
author: "[欧阳大叔](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/12946194)"
---

# Release schedule for key US macroeconomic data next week (February 16–20, 2026)

📅 Key Economic Data & Market Expectations for Next Week (Including Times)  
All times are in ET / Beijing Time (+13 h). Data expectations are based on current market consensus and major institution forecasts (e.g., LBBW, Investing.com calendar summary, etc.)  
LBBW +1  
🎯 Tuesday — February 17  
🕗 08:30 / 21:30  
Retail Sales (January, MoM)  
Consensus: Approximately +0.3%  
Previous/Context: December showed no growth (MoM ~ 0.0%)  
The Wall Street Journal  
Business Inventories (December)  
Expectation: Moderate inventory growth (limited contribution to GDP)  
Scotiabank  
Empire State Manufacturing Index (February)  
Expectation: Approximately +7.4 (slightly above previous)  
LBBW  
📊 Wednesday — February 18  
🕐 09:15 / 22:15  
4) Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (January)  
Expectation: Slight growth or moderate  
Scotiabank  
🕙 10:00 / 23:00  
5) Leading Indicators (January)  
Expectation: Slight growth (indicating short-term economic resilience)  
Scotiabank  
🕑 14:00 / Next Day 03:00  
6) FOMC Meeting Minutes  
No specific value, qualitative policy communication (affects sentiment and rate expectations)  
Scotiabank  
🌍 Thursday — February 19  
🕗 08:30 / 21:30  
7) Trade Balance (December)  
Expectation: Deficit remains large (trade imbalance drags on GDP)  
Scotiabank  
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (February)  
Expectation: Moderate expansion range  
Scotiabank  
🕙 10:00 / 23:00  
9) Pending Home Sales (January)  
Expectation: Slight decline or flat (housing demand slowing)  
Scotiabank  
📉 Friday — February 20  
🕗 08:30 / 21:30  
10) GDP Preliminary (Q4 Annualized)  
Expectation: Annualized ~ +2.6% (relying on consumption and business inventory contribution)  
LBBW  
Personal Income (December)  
Expectation: +0.4%  
Personal Spending (December) \*\*Expectation: +0.5%\*\*  
LBBW  
🕙 10:00 / 23:00  
12) University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (February)  
Expectation: Approximately 57.3, maintaining stable level  
LBBW  
📈 Typical Impact Logic of Data on Major US Stock Market Sectors

1.  GDP (Most Critical Macro Growth Indicator)  
    Expected actual GDP growth ~ +2.6%  
    Technology Sector (Tech): If GDP exceeds expectations (indicating continued economic expansion), it typically supports high-valuation growth stock premiums; if significantly below expectations, pressure due to declining risk appetite.  
    Financials Sector (Financials): Better-than-expected GDP often drives upward revisions to bank earnings expectations (enhanced loan/investment growth expectations).  
    Consumer Sectors (Consumer Discretionary & Staples): GDP acceleration usually benefits consumer company earnings expectations; slowing growth weakens consumption support.  
    Summary: GDP is the core measure of the economy's "overall momentum." If it exceeds expectations, US stock market risk assets (especially high-valuation growth stocks) typically perform stronger; below expectations is more bearish for overall market sentiment.
2.  Retail Sales  
    Expectation +0.3% (slight consumption improvement)  
    Consumer Staples: Even if overall sales data is weak, Staples are often more resilient due to stable daily consumption demand.  
    Consumer Discretionary: If core consumption growth is weaker than expected, retail, auto, and restaurant stocks face pressure; conversely, it benefits sector valuation recovery.  
    Technology/Growth Sector: If weak consumption suggests economic slowdown, funds flow to safer assets, potentially reducing allocation to high-risk tech stocks.
3.  Industrial & Manufacturing Indicators (Empire / Philadelphia / Industrial Production)  
    Industrial Sector (Industrial): If manufacturing indices exceed expectations and industrial output strengthens, industrial equipment, machinery, and energy companies get a boost.  
    Materials/Energy Sector: Increased manufacturing activity implies higher raw material demand, benefiting the sector's fundamentals.  
    Technology & Financials Sectors: Manufacturing data strength/weakness is often a risk appetite signal; strong data boosts market risk appetite, benefiting growth/high-beta sectors.
4.  FOMC Meeting Minutes  
    Core Impact: Rate expectations and risk appetite direction  
    Dovish (clearer rate cut bias): Beneficial for long-term rates and growth assets (e.g., tech stocks, consumer growth stocks).  
    Hawkish (maintaining tightening bias): Bearish for high-valuation sectors, may boost USD and bond yields, beneficial for financials (steeper yield curve benefits bank profits).
5.  Consumer Confidence & Personal Spending / Income  
    Personal spending and confidence expectations stable  
    Consumer Sectors (Discretionary & Staples): Improved confidence and spending benefit medium-to-long-term earnings expectations; weakness erodes valuation premiums.  
    Technology Sector: Stable consumer income supports long-term demand for tech products and services, neutral or slightly positive for growth-oriented consumer tech stocks.  
    Financials Sector: Recovering confidence usually improves loan/credit usage expectations, benefiting bank and financial services stocks.

📊 Brief Summary  
Focus on two types of data for US stocks next week:  
Economic Growth & Consumption Demand: GDP, Retail Sales, and Consumer Spending → Directly impact market risk appetite and company earnings expectations.  
Policy Preference Signals: FOMC Minutes → Determine future rate expectations, affecting relative performance of growth vs. value stocks.

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> **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.
