---
title: "Failed to predict yet again. Looks like my self-imposed 10% win rate is quite rational. Based on cas"
description: "Failed to predict yet again. Looks like my self-imposed 10% win rate is quite rational. Based on case analysis of my past few psychological predictions, my predictions not only have a low short-term s"
type: "topic"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/38766517.md"
published_at: "2026-02-17T23:30:37.000Z"
author: "[小马哔哔](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/16337583)"
---

# Failed to predict yet again. Looks like my self-imposed 10% win rate is quite rational. Based on cas

Failed to predict yet again. Looks like my self-imposed 10% win rate is quite rational. Based on case analysis of my past few psychological predictions, my predictions not only have a low short-term success rate, but they're actually not very accurate in the medium term either. For example, let me make another prediction now: Dazi will reach 216 before the meeting between the leaders of China and the US in April.

Also, let me add that I don't really have any technical analysis methods. Things like Fibonacci retracement, golden ratio, this support level, that gap—I might consider some of them or completely ignore them. It's mainly a kind of chaotic prediction based on my gut feeling, combining recent trends, news sentiment, and market mood. Of course, all predictions are made with the goal of being as achievable and useful as possible, not just to forcibly meet that 10% win rate, because that rate itself is just a rough estimate. Deep down, I naturally hope the win rate is as high as possible!

To summarize, the new prediction is that NVDA will be ≥216 before those two meet in April, Pcs=0/4.

### Related Stocks

- [NVDA.US - NVIDIA](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md)

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> **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.