---
title: "🚀🧠 $Micron Tech(MU.US) throws down $200 billion, what I see is not capacity expansion, but a compl"
description: "🚀🧠 $Micron Tech(MU.US) throws down $200 billion, what I see is not capacity expansion, but a complete transformation of "memory identity"For the past few decades, I've always viewed memory a"
type: "topic"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/38797511.md"
published_at: "2026-02-20T06:51:29.000Z"
author: "[辰逸](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/16318663)"
---

# 🚀🧠 $Micron Tech(MU.US) throws down $200 billion, what I see is not capacity expansion, but a compl

🚀🧠 $Micron Tech(MU.US) throws down $200 billion, what I see is not capacity expansion, but a complete transformation of "memory identity"

For the past few decades, I've always viewed memory as a cyclical product.

Price fluctuations, inventory digestion, capacity on/off—standard commodity logic.

But this time, my judgment is starting to waver.

Because what Micron Technology announced is not minor tweaks, but a structural bet—a $200 billion capacity expansion plan, with its core squarely aimed at HBM.

Of this, $50 billion will be invested in expanding the Boise campus, with two giant wafer fabs, the first to start production in mid-2027 and be fully operational by the end of 2028.

It also includes a $100 billion project in Syracuse and a $9.6 billion investment in Hiroshima.

This is not a conservative capacity adjustment; this is a bet on the demand curve for the next 5–10 years.

Why do I think this time is different?

Because AI has changed the role of memory.

In the past, DRAM was a supporting actor that "followed CPU/GPU shipments."

Now, the data throughput driven by AI training and inference means every GPU needs a large amount of stacked HBM.

Memory is no longer a side product; it's the bottleneck limiting computing power release.

Supply has become the key variable.

The price already tells the story.

DRAM contract price YoY +170%

Micron's gross margin rose from 18.5% to 56%

Company guidance even points to 68%

This is no longer a mild recovery in a traditional commodity cycle, but a leap in profit structure.

Even more exaggerated, the tightness isn't limited to HBM.

DDR5 prices have jumped nearly 500% since September.

The market generally expects the shortage to persist until the end of 2026 or even the first half of 2027.

This means—

The demand is not short-term orders, but a structural pull.

Of course, I won't ignore the risks either.

First, cycle whiplash.

If capacity is released in a concentrated manner while AI capital expenditure slows, prices could quickly fall back.

Second, certification risk.

Reports suggest Micron's HBM4 has not entered Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform.

Although the company denies this and emphasizes that HBM3e and HBM4 are sold out through the end of the year, technical certification is extremely critical in this industry.

Once the design window is lost, market share can shift in an instant.

But even considering the risks, I still see a bigger change:

Memory is transforming from a "commodity" to a "strategic resource."

When NVIDIA's GPUs require stacked HBM,

When data center expansion becomes a core constraint just like power,

Memory is no longer just about price volatility; it's a key link in computing power release.

What really makes me think is:

If HBM becomes the "new oil" of the AI era,

Then shouldn't $Micron Tech(MU.US)'s valuation logic also shift from a cyclical stock to an infrastructure stock?

I no longer just ask, "Will the cycle reverse?"

I now ask more—

When AI demand persists for more than 5 years, has the identity of memory already undergone an irreversible change?

### Related Stocks

- [MU.US - Micron Tech](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MU.US.md)
- [NVDA.US - NVIDIA](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md)

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> **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.