---
title: "周期：Mastering the Market Cycle"
description: "As the foundation for long-term trading and value investing, I recommend "Mastering the Market Cycle" (Chinese title "周期") by Howard Marks, founder of Oaktree Capital. The core is unde"
type: "topic"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/38802683.md"
published_at: "2026-02-20T14:26:30.000Z"
author: "[evocator](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/15159426)"
---

# 周期：Mastering the Market Cycle

As a foundation for long-term trading and value investing, I recommend Howard Marks' "Mastering the Market Cycle" (Chinese title "Cycle"). The core is understanding the position in the cycle, positioning contrarily, and controlling risk, rather than precisely predicting turning points.

I. Core Thesis

The market is always in a cyclical loop (boom → bust → recovery → boom). The root of fluctuations is the resonance of human nature (greed/fear) + fundamentals + credit + policy. The key to investment success is judging the current position in the cycle, not predicting tops and bottoms.

II. Nine Key Cycles

1\. Economic Cycle (GDP, employment, inflation): The foundation for other cycles.  
2\. Corporate Profit Cycle: Operating/financial leverage amplifies fluctuations.  
3\. Credit Cycle (Most Critical): Ease or tightness determines liquidity and is the trigger for crises (e.g., 2008).  
4\. Investor Sentiment Pendulum: Swings between extreme optimism ↔ extreme pessimism, driving valuation extremes.  
5\. Risk Attitude Cycle: Risk appetite follows sentiment; risk is greatest when there is a "sense of no risk."  
6\. Market Cycle (Stock Price/Valuation): Sentiment amplifies profit fluctuations, alternating bull and bear markets.  
7\. Government Intervention Cycle: Counter-cyclical adjustments via fiscal/monetary policy.  
8\. Real Estate Cycle: Long cycle, high leverage, strong linkages.  
9\. Distressed Debt Cycle: Opportunities emerge during credit contractions.

III. Four Stages of Cycle Operation (Sentiment + Price)

-   Bottom (Despair): Pessimism, low prices, high potential return, low risk → Buy/Add.
-   Rise (Doubt → Optimism): Improving fundamentals, warming sentiment → Hold.
-   Top (Euphoria): Optimism, high prices, low potential return, high risk → Reduce/Defend.
-   Decline (Panic): Deteriorating fundamentals, collapsing sentiment → Hold cash/Wait.

IV. Core Investment Strategies

-   Don't Predict, Just Position: Judge "where we are," not "when it will turn."
-   Contrarian Thinking: Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.
-   Risk First: Risk comes from "ignoring risk," not the market itself.
-   Dynamic Position Adjustment: Defensive at tops (cash/high-rated), offensive at bottoms (undervalued/junk bonds).
-   Avoid Extremes: Don't chase rallies, don't sell in panic, avoid making decisions during euphoria/panic.

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> **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.