---
title: "Is this time different?"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/38820649.md"
description: "“Things that have never happened before happen all the time” by Scott Sagan. We look at K-line charts, calculate the historical percentile of the price-to-earnings ratio (PE), conduct quantitative backtests over the past 50 years, trying to find the “standard answer” for the future from history. We take it for granted that as long as I'm prepared with methods to deal with the last financial crisis, I'm safe. But..."
datetime: "2026-02-22T14:49:20.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/38820649.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/38820649.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/38820649.md)
author: "[哆啦A梦の彼女](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/12269917.md)"
---

> Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/38820649.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/38820649.md)


# Is this time different?

"Things that have never happened before happen all the time" by Scott Sagan.

We look at K-line charts, calculate the historical percentile of the P/E ratio, and run quantitative backtests over the past 50 years, trying to find the "standard answer" for the future from history. We take it for granted that as long as I'm prepared with the methods to deal with the last financial crisis, I'm safe. However, history is a record book of "accidents," not a "topographic map" of the future.

Give up predicting specific disasters and instead comprehensively improve the "Margin of Safety" of your account and life.

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)

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