--- type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/38851810.md" description: "$Microsoft(MSFT.US) I saw a post on Xiaohongshu (Little Red Book) and found it very insightful. This isn't about denying the idea of bottom-fishing Microsoft or turning bearish on it just because it crashed hard. It's about using this incident to warn all investors: if you don't even understand why Microsoft fell, or what kind of bottom you're trying to catch (i.e., what informational edge you're trying to profit from), then your current bottom-fishing is just speculation, and you're even calling it value investing. This is highly inadvisable. The strong rebound over the past year might have given many people the illusion that as long as you 'buy the dip,' you can just wait for it to recover. I don't deny that good companies can do that, and Microsoft might even hit new highs again, but the prerequisite is that you have a solid, logical rationale when you buy the dip, not some clumsy imitation of so-called 'value investing.'Personally, I bought the dip at 423. At the time, I just heard from a friend that it was cheap and that Microsoft is a Mag7 stock. That logic was obviously very fragile. So, I haven't averaged down at all so far. I'll only take the next step when I understand Microsoft and am convinced of its future prospects. Let's all encourage each other." datetime: "2026-02-24T09:08:39.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/38851810.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/38851810.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/38851810.md) author: "[脆皮大学牲](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/24317474.md)" --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/38851810.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/38851810.md) # $Microsoft(MSFT.US) I saw a post on Xiaohongshu (L… ### Related Stocks - [Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFT.US.md) ## Comments (14) - **晏总的交易员 · 2026-02-25T18:11:14.000Z · 👍 1**: Actually, when looking at stocks, the main approach is to estimate their reasonable price range for the year based on their forward P/E ratio. For example, in my previous post, I mentioned that Netflix's actual price in 2026 would be between 64-94. At that time, most people in the comments were mock - **脆皮大学牲** (2026-02-25T18:13:42.000Z): Hmm, that post being able to accurately predict at that time is really impressive. I only invested in Netflix after reading your post. - **脆皮大学牲** (2026-02-25T18:14:37.000Z): Since I don't have the ability to make such judgments myself, I can only control my position size and improve my risk-reward ratio. So, if I were to add to my Microsoft position, I'd wait until around - **晏总的交易员** (2026-02-25T18:16:06.000Z): No no no, if the heavens are still providing, we must add to our position once at 365-375! This is a major support level, you know. - **晏总的交易员 · 2026-02-25T18:07:01.000Z · 👍 1**: Actually, you should average down on Microsoft below 380-395. This wave of sell-off in the software sector is actually a mispricing of many individual stocks due to a liquidity crisis in the entire sector, such as Microsoft and Intuit. The median reasonable price for Microsoft in 2026 is around 424, - **脆皮大学牲** (2026-02-25T18:10:57.000Z): For this breakout, I'm looking at around 350. The main point is that if you don't understand it, you should be cautious about averaging down. The reason for opening the position in the first place was - **晏总的交易员** (2026-02-25T18:14:18.000Z): Emm, it's hard to say about this wave of selling. It's mainly a stampede in the software sector caused by a liquidity crisis. When it reaches undervalued levels, it's actually all about bottom-fishing - **powell901 · 2026-02-24T14:14:50.000Z**: Cloud? What else? I'm looking at his Office, huh? - **mmmin · 2026-02-24T14:14:07.000Z**: You don't need to understand anything, just wait. - **Doge839 · 2026-02-24T12:47:16.000Z**: Anthropic 的发布可能又会带有悬念 - **黄毛还我钱 · 2026-02-24T10:03:55.000Z**: I've lost ten thousand dollars buying Microsoft, it hurts. - **脆皮大学牲** (2026-02-24T10:31:08.000Z): Microsoft and Amazon together account for more than 10% of my portfolio. I bought Amazon following Value Brother, and I bought Microsoft because it looked cheap. For stocks I don't understand, I buy l