--- title: "Review the operations around NVIDIA's earnings report" description: "After a long winter, the temperature in Beijing gradually rose around the Spring Festival, even approaching 20°C at its peak; but in the past few days, it suddenly plummeted below zero, even with snow" type: "topic" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/38959152.md" published_at: "2026-02-28T02:01:00.000Z" author: "[爱妻的交易员](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/17289850)" comments_count: 7 --- # Review the operations around NVIDIA's earnings report After a long winter, temperatures in Beijing gradually rose around the Spring Festival, with highs even approaching 20°C; but these past few days, there was a sudden cliff-like drop to below zero, and even some snow. Many people couldn't adapt, and colds became more common. This feeling is a bit like NVIDIA recently: thinking "spring has arrived" after the earnings report, with signs of a price uptick, only for it to pull back nearly 10% over two consecutive days. Today, I'm reviewing my actions around the earnings report. My long-standing discipline has been: **move less and watch more when the market is uncertain.** Especially around earnings reports when volatility is extreme, my habit is usually to wait a few days for the market to fully price in the news before making decisions. But this time, NVIDIA delivered an almost "flawless" earnings report: in a nutshell — the AI CapEx narrative is more stable, its competitiveness stronger, and future guidance clearer. I did a scenario valuation myself: • Optimistic scenario (40–50% growth): PE 45–55x → price range 351–429 • Realistic scenario (30–35% growth): PE 27–35x → price range 210–273 • Conservative scenario (20–25% growth): PE ~20x → price range 140–171 So, I naturally considered 210–273 as the "price range more aligned with fundamentals." But the market is interesting: even if you're 183cm tall, have an eight-pack, look like a handsome celebrity, and are worth billions, it's no use if ordinary people (retail investors) go crazy for you; when you meet the goddess you like (institutions), and she says "not feeling it," you're out of luck. So we saw: after the earnings, retail investors bought heavily, with net buying hitting a record high since 2012; meanwhile, institutions took the opportunity to shift funds out of the highly concentrated big tech stocks. Pre-market on earnings day hit my sell point, and I reduced some of my position as per discipline. But the extra cash after the report, plus the "too perfect" earnings, gave me a bit of FOMO: I subjectively judged that NVIDIA would at worst fall back to 185, maybe even touch 190 before bouncing, then oscillate between 190–200. So that night, I placed staggered buy orders in the 190–185 range. Woke up in the morning to find all orders filled. This once again reminded me: **Don't always think "this is impossible, that is impossible." Dan Bin said the market loves to make the impossible happen.** **So always leave yourself room, don't think about making all the money in one go. There are always opportunities in the market; what's important is — staying alive.** Fortunately, I still stuck to my bottom-line principle: **Always keep yourself in a position with options.** This dip-buying was just a light "buying a ticket," and my cash cushion is still ample. I was also a bit carried away by this report: I overlooked NVIDIA's earnings history. **"Surge after earnings — digestion — pullback" has almost become a stock characteristic of NVDA.** Every time NVIDIA delivers a perfect earnings report, the market raises similar questions: • Is growth peaking/slowing from here? • How much certainty is already priced into the valuation? • Can it continue to "beat significantly" rather than "beat slightly" going forward? And these questions have become increasingly frequent since 2024, because NVDA is transitioning from a "consistently off-the-charts growth stock" to being scrutinized by the market with harsher standards: not just growth, but growth that consistently exceeds already sky-high expectations. **This is something I must always remember when investing in NVIDIA in the future.** I'm not denying this dip-buying operation — I just wish I could be more patient and more "emotionless." From a fundamental perspective, this decline looks more like: a post-earnings sentiment and valuation multiple giveback. Historical experience also shows: as long as consensus estimates don't see significant, consecutive downward revisions, prices often tend to "come back," though they might first consolidate sideways for a few weeks, digesting the selling pressure above. Maybe by the GTC in mid-March, the conference will bring a new narrative and push the stock price up again. What we really need to watch out for are two things: • The market starting to consecutively lower consensus estimates; • Or a macro-level repricing (e.g., a change in interest rate direction, sudden policy shocks like in April last year). It's hard to be perfect every time in short-term trading, which is why we need constant review, constant refinement, and the courage to criticize ourselves. **Never let emotions drive you; never think about how much you must make on this one trade, but first think: what if I lose?** **As Donald Trump said in "The Art of the Deal": always leave yourself an out.** But one thing I still believe: spring has already arrived. Even with a sudden cold snap and a couple of snowfalls, it doesn't change the trend of gradually warming temperatures. ### Related Stocks - [NVDA.US - NVIDIA](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [NVDL.US - GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDL.US.md) - [07788.HK - XL2CSOPNVDA](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07788.HK.md) - [07388.HK - XI2CSOPNVDA](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07388.HK.md) - [NVDY.US - YieldMax NVDA Option Income Strategy ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDY.US.md) - [NVDD.US - Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDD.US.md) - [NVDX.US - T-Rex 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDX.US.md) - [NVDQ.US - T-Rex 2X Inverse NVIDIA Daily Target ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDQ.US.md) ## Comments (7) --- **爱学习的明** · 等下周一再看看，作为一个刚进股市不久的新人，我靠最近英伟达这波价格走势，正好在学习 call put 对正股的影响。 --- **京城狐狸姐姐** · 我发现长桥在北京、广东的好多呀～Z 老、东四环 xxx… --- **道可道99** · 有道理 好在那天跌四个点后我才开仓两层 --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.