---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39046384.md"
description: "🚀When $Micron Tech(MU.US)'s orders are locked in until 2028, I start to re-evaluate the term "cyclical stock."In this March 2nd research from Morgan Stanley, one sentence is particularly crucial:"We see hyperscalers placing 3-year orders, even paying in full upfront."This is not an ordinary order.This is locking in future cash flows in advance.If a memory supplier receives prepayments this quarter equivalent to 100% of 2028 revenue, and the order volume is several times the current level—what does that indicate?It indicates the customer is not "replenishing inventory."They are "scrambling for capacity."Our past understanding of the memory industry was:Severe supply-demand fluctuationsHigh price elasticityPeak cycles difficult to sustainBut AI has changed the demand structure.HBM, advanced DRAM, and AI server configuration upgrades have made memory no longer just an "auxiliary component," but one of the core bottlenecks for computing density.Morgan Stanley's switch from $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) to Sandisk, and then to $Micron Tech(MU.US) last year had a simple logic:Nvidia is the AI engineBut memory is the leverWhen GPU shipments increase, memory demand multiplies.The results also far exceeded their expectations.Memory stocks have risen 300%-900% since then, while $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)'s stock price has barely moved despite a 38% increase in profit expectations over 6 months.What does this indicate?It indicates the market is starting to shift from "definitive leaders" towards "profit elasticity."The debate between Memory and $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) is essentially not about which is better.It's about which has stronger potential for profit revision in the current phase.Morgan Stanley believes the market generally thinks memory reflects a longer cycle, but they don't fully agree.What they see is:Both environments are exceptionally strong right nowBut both lack high certainty for 2027This sentence is important.It shows even optimists have no illusions of an infinite cycle.What truly changes the rhythm is the prepayment.Prepayment means:High visibility into future demand for customersSignificantly reduced cash flow risk for suppliersMore confidence in capital expenditureThis is not common in traditional memory cycles.If hyperscalers are willing to lock in for three years and pay upfront, it indicates they believe:AI training and inference demand will not decline in the short termThe scramble for capacity has already entered the next phase earlyWill this eliminate the cycle?No.Memory is still a supply-driven industry.But the cycle may be lengthened and smoothed out.I'm more focused on three variables:HBM capacity expansion speedYield improvement paceHyperscaler capital expenditure trendsIf these three points remain strong, then the "exit logic" for 2026 might indeed be premature.But if supply quickly catches up with demand, profit peaks will also decline.This is not a "long-term value stock" narrative.This is the cycle being repriced by AI.When cash is locked in until 2028, I will at least admit one thing:This memory rally is not exactly the same as the past few."
datetime: "2026-03-04T04:34:45.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39046384.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39046384.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39046384.md)
author: "[辰逸](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/16318663.md)"
---

# 🚀When $Micron Tech(MU.US)'s orders are locked in …


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