---
title: "Day 66 in the market: When the smoke rises"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39046500.md"
description: "The core focus in March 2026 is the chain reaction following the US-Israel military strike on Iran. The "Twelve-Day War" that broke out in June 2025 shattered the long-standing strategic balance, and the latest offensive on March 2, 2026—a joint US and Israeli strike targeting Iranian nuclear facilities and military hubs—marks the "de-functionalization" phase of Iran's regional threat. 2026 is the "first year of industrial mobilization" for the US Defense Industrial Base (DIB). As "war" becomes the keyword for global defense ETFs..."
datetime: "2026-03-04T04:47:58.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39046500.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39046500.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39046500.md)
author: "[SU & JOJO](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/23264164.md)"
---

# Day 66 in the market: When the smoke rises

The core focus in March 2026 is the ripple effects following the US-Israel military strike on Iran. The "Twelve-Day War" that erupted in June 2025 shattered the long-standing strategic balance, and the latest offensive on March 2, 2026—a joint US-Israel strike targeting Iranian nuclear facilities and military hubs—marks the "de-functionalization" phase of Iran's regional threat.

2026 is the "first year of industrial mobilization" for the US Defense Industrial Base (DIB). With "war" becoming the keyword for global defense ETFs, the industry is undergoing a revolution driven by AI, space-dominant, and highly protectionist. The US defense production strategy has fully implemented the "America First" principle. Through a series of executive orders, the US is establishing an independent, self-sufficient military-industrial supply chain.

I believe that the future of the US military-industrial sector will be driven by two major engines: the "Golden Shield" plan and "AI militarization." Despite challenges such as labor shortages and rising compliance costs, supported by a $1.5 trillion budget expectation, the entire sector's risk resilience is extremely strong.

**In the short term:** Ammunition consumption caused by the Middle East conflict will support companies like Lockheed Martin's MFC segment to exceed performance expectations.

**In the medium term:** The competition for space defense sovereignty will determine who gains pricing power in this "new Cold War."

**In the long term:** Companies that can successfully integrate AI technology and meet the government's stringent performance requirements will become the dominant players in the new military-industrial era.

**For LMT, several segments** 

**1- Aeronautics segment: Full delivery of the F-35 TR-3 version, signing of Lot 18-19 contracts. After a record delivery of 191 aircraft in 2025, 2026 deliveries will slightly decline to normal levels (approx. 156 aircraft) due to the end of destocking.**

**2- Missiles and Fire Control: PAC-3 MSE, THAAD interceptor production capacity doubled, multi-year procurement for JASSM and LRASM initiated. Stimulated by the Middle East war, due to production cycle constraints, 2027 will see a "super revenue peak" for ammunition replenishment.**

**3- Rotary and Mission Systems: Aegis system upgrades and helicopter project impairment completed. Marginal profit margins enter a recovery channel as R&D loss provisions are fully accounted for.**

**4- Space segment: "Golden Dome" plan launched, LEO satellite constellation bidding.**

### Related Stocks

- [LMT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/LMT.US.md)
- [00945.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00945.HK.md)
- [MFC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MFC.US.md)

## Comments (1)

- **SU & JOJO · 2026-03-04T05:00:13.000Z**: Global defense spending continued to grow in 2025, reaching $2.63 trillion, with Europe and the Middle East being significant drivers. The common trend for 2026 is the increased priority of "air defense & missile defense + long-range strike + space/cyber/AI + ammunition replenishment/product