--- title: "The ADP data is good, but it feels like some people are going to lose their jobs." type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39076394.md" description: "Last night, many people were watching the ADP private employment data, and I took a glance too. Honestly, I didn't really pay much attention to these macro data before, thinking it was quite far from my own stock trading. But after being taught a few lessons by the market in the past two years, I gradually discovered a problem: often, market ups and downs aren't necessarily due to sudden changes in a company's fundamentals, but rather sentiment being driven by macro data. So now I occasionally look at it too, not to predict the market, but just to roughly understand what everyone is worried about and what they're expecting. After this February's ADP data came out, the overall figure was 63,000 new jobs added..." datetime: "2026-03-05T06:32:38.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39076394.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39076394.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39076394.md) author: "[James小韭日记](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/25149055.md)" --- # The ADP data is good, but it feels like some people are going to lose their jobs. Last night, many people were watching the **ADP private payroll data, and I took a glance too. Honestly, I didn't really pay much attention to these macro data before, thinking it was far from my stock trading. But after being taught a few lessons by the market in the past couple of years, I gradually discovered a problem: often, market ups and downs aren't necessarily due to sudden changes in a company's fundamentals, but rather sentiment being led by macro data**. So now I occasionally look at it too, not to predict the market, but just to roughly understand what everyone is worried about and what they are expecting. After this February's ADP data came out, the overall figure was **63,000 new jobs added**, significantly higher than the market expectation of 50,000. On the surface, this number isn't particularly strong, but the key point is that it "**exceeded expectations**". The market is sometimes like this; the absolute value isn't that important, but the deviation from expectations is more crucial. Recently, there have been quite a few concerns about the economy, so this slightly better-than-expected data often allows sentiment to take a slight breather. However, when I looked at this data myself, the most interesting part wasn't the total employment number, but the **changes in the employment structure**. For example, one quite surprising aspect this time was the construction sector. In February, the construction sector added **19,000 new jobs**, ranking second in contribution among all sub-sectors. Many people usually focus more on sectors like tech and finance when watching the market, but actually, in the US employment structure, fluctuations in goods-producing sectors like construction and manufacturing are quite noticeable. This sudden increase in so many construction jobs this time essentially gave a slight boost to goods-producing employment, which is a relatively obvious rebound recently. Of course, looking at the overall structure, **the service sector remains the core support of the job market**. In February, the service sector contributed a total of **47,000 new jobs**, accounting for the vast majority. In recent years, the US economy has had a relatively stable characteristic: the goods-producing side has its ups and downs, but the service sector has been slowly adding people, such as in healthcare, education, food services, and tourism. Often, when the market discusses whether the economy will cool down significantly, I also look at the employment structure. If service sector employment is still growing steadily, it's actually hard for consumption to suddenly drop sharply. But in this data, there was another part that caught my eye: the **employment situation in the professional and business services sector**. This sector has actually been quite weak recently, losing an average of **38,000 people per month over the past three months**, and it lost another **30,000 people in February**. If you think about it carefully, this sector includes many typical white-collar jobs, such as finance, IT, consulting, and professional services. People used to think these jobs were relatively stable, but the changes have been quite noticeable in the past two years. My first thought was actually the **structural changes brought by AI**. Sectors like finance, IT, and professional services essentially involve a lot of information processing, data analysis, and workflow management, which are precisely what AI is becoming increasingly good at. When companies push for process automation and cost reduction/efficiency improvement, it's natural for them to reduce some job demand. What might have required an entire team in the past can now be done much more efficiently with upgraded tools, so companies naturally reconsider their staffing scale. Of course, this change isn't sudden; it's a gradual infiltration. Take myself, for example. Writing articles and organizing information used to take a lot of time, but now I often use AI tools to improve efficiency. So, when seeing these sectors' employment continue to shrink, I can somewhat understand the companies' logic. Looking at the current development trend of AI, this kind of structural employment pressure is likely to continue for some time. Sometimes, looking at these macro data, I feel a bit emotional. When I first started stock trading, I only cared about one thing: **whether it goes up today, and whether I can break even tomorrow**. After going through a few market cycles, I gradually realized that many major changes actually happen early within the industry and economic structure, but we retail investors rarely pay attention. For example, trends like AI and automation mean efficiency improvements for companies, new growth logic for the stock market, but another kind of pressure for the job market. Of course, I'm not a macro analyst myself; these are more just the feelings of an ordinary investor after seeing the data. For me, this data is more for understanding market sentiment. I won't change my portfolio because of one employment report. After all, I'm mainly holding tech stocks like Google, NVIDIA, Tesla, and Apple now, as well as Alibaba and Xiaomi in Hong Kong stocks, focusing more on long-term trends. However, changes in the employment structure are indeed worth paying attention to in the long run. After all, often, **what truly changes the market isn't short-term data, but slowly unfolding trends**. I wonder how you all view this ADP data? Do you think the impact of AI on employment has already started to slowly manifest? **This article is only my personal stock trading experience and does not constitute investment advice**$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK) $Apple(AAPL.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) ### Related Stocks - [GOOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOG.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [AAPL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPL.US.md) - [GOOGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOGL.US.md) - [NVDL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDL.US.md) - [07788.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07788.HK.md) - [07388.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07388.HK.md) - [NVDY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDY.US.md) - [NVDD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDD.US.md) - [NVDX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDX.US.md) - [NVDQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDQ.US.md) - [AAPB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPB.US.md) - [AAPD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPD.US.md) - [AAPU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPU.US.md) - [AAPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPX.US.md) - [AAPY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPY.US.md) - [APLY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/APLY.US.md) - [GGLS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GGLS.US.md) - [GGLL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GGLL.US.md) - [01810.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/01810.HK.md) - [81810.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/81810.HK.md) - [HXXD.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HXXD.SG.md) - [XIACY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XIACY.US.md) - [TSLA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [09988.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09988.HK.md)