---
title: "MRVL: ASIC card miss; wins back AI with interconnect."
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39096551.md"
description: "MRVL reported FY2026 Q4 results after hours on Mar 6 (Beijing time), for the quarter ended Jan 2026.1) Revenue: $2.22bn, +7% QoQ, in line with consensus ($2.21bn).The $150mn QoQ uplift was primarily driven by data center.2) GPM: 51.7%, +10bps QoQ.Margins are affected by amortization of acquired assets and other factors..."
datetime: "2026-03-06T02:08:14.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39096551.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39096551.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39096551.md)
author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/news/dolphin.md)"
---

> Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39096551.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39096551.md)


# MRVL: ASIC card miss; wins back AI with interconnect.

Marvell (MRVL) reported Q4 FY2026 (ended Jan 2026) after the U.S. market close on Mar 6 Beijing time. The print came after hours.

**1\. Revenue: $2.22bn this quarter, +7% QoQ**, in line with the Street ($2.21bn). The $150mn QoQ uplift was driven primarily by Data Center.

**2\. GPM**: headline GPM was 51.7%, up 10bps QoQ. As reported GAAP GPM is affected by acquisition-related amortization, it does not fully reflect operating performance. **Ex-amort., adj. GPM was 58.5%, down 50bps QoQ**, a structural mix drag from lower-margin custom ASIC.

**3\. Data Center: key focus**. **Segment revenue was $1.65bn, +8.8% QoQ**, led by **custom ASIC and optics/interconnect**, lifting Data Center to 74.4% of total. **Dolphin Research estimates** $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) **AI revenue at ~$960mn, +$110mn QoQ**.

Amazon announced Trainium 3, and market checks suggest Alchip is the main supplier. **Marvell remains an AMZN supplier, focused on Trainium 2.5 (a mid-cycle rev of Trainium 2), consistent with management’s prior comment of ‘no revenue gap’.**

**4\. Next-quarter guide: revenue $2.4bn, above the Street ($2.27bn)**, QoQ growth driven by custom ASIC and Data Center. **GPM (GAAP) 51.4%–52.4%**, broadly stable.

**5\. Full-year outlook: FY2027 revenue raised to $11bn (from $10bn), +34% YoY.** ASIC to grow 20%+, optics/interconnect to grow 50%+. FY2028 revenue raised to $15bn (from $13bn), ~+40% YoY.

**Dolphin Research view: guide raised again; clear push to ‘scale-out clusters’ capability**

**Marvell’s print broadly matched expectations**, with growth largely from Data Center. **Ex-amort., adj. GPM was 58.5%, down 50bps QoQ**, reflecting mix shift toward lower-margin custom ASIC.

The company simplified segment disclosure from five to two (Data Center; Comm. & other), highlighting Data Center’s primacy. **Data Center was the main growth driver this quarter, +8.8% QoQ, and Dolphin Research estimates AI revenue at ~$960mn**.

Beyond the quarter, guidance was ‘quite constructive’. **Marvell guides next-quarter revenue to $2.4bn, +8% QoQ, topping the Street ($2.27bn)**, driven by optical module chips and custom ASIC.

Management again raised the multi-year outlook. **FY2027 revenue is guided to $11bn (+34% YoY), with Data Center AI contributing most of the uplift.**

Key watch items for Marvell’s AI business:

**a) Capex at the mega-customer**: Amazon is the largest AI customer for Marvell, and hyperscaler capex underpins AI growth. **Marvell’s Data Center growth trails AMZN’s capex growth when viewed side by side.**

Even if AMZN lifts 2026 capex to $200bn (~+50% YoY), **Marvell captures only part of that uplift, with mgmt now expecting Data Center growth of 40%+, still below AMZN capex growth.**

**Dolphin Research believes custom ASIC is the drag (company guides 20%+ growth)**, implying AMZN is not fully satisfied with Marvell’s ASIC. Marvell supplied Trainium 2/Inferentia 3 previously, yet AMZN awarded most Trainium 3 to Alchip, with Marvell focused on Trainium 2.5 (a mid-cycle rev of Trainium 2).

**b) AI chip market share:** vs. NVIDIA and Broadcom, Marvell’s share is tiny at ~1%. **Expectations for share gains were high, but performance remains ‘muted’.** The core customer is still AMZN, and Marvell’s Trainium share is slipping, pointing to insufficient product competitiveness.

**c) Acquiring Celestial AI & XConn: expanding into ‘scale-out + scale-up’ across scenarios**

**① Celestial AI:** bolsters silicon photonics and CPO, core to scaled interconnect. Its ‘Photonic Fabric’ enables large-scale CPO deployment, with revenue contribution starting 2028. The first chiplet is moving to mass production, with **FY2028 Q4 CPO ARR at $500mn (i.e., ~$125mn per quarter), and FY2029 Q4 at $1bn (i.e., ~$250mn per quarter)**.

**② XConn**: strengthens PCIe/CXL switching to expand AI infra interfaces. It had 20+ customers pre-deal, and should scale quickly via Marvell’s global sales network, targeting leadership in PCIe/CXL switching while reinforcing UA-LINK and accelerating the scaled switching roadmap.

**Taking (a+b+c) together, while custom ASIC engagement with AMZN has been bumpy, Marvell is steadily expanding interconnect capabilities across Data Center.** Rather than just ‘selling cards’, the company aims to be a provider with ‘scaled cluster’ capabilities.

**With the current mkt cap at ~$64.2bn, Marvell screens at ~23x FY2027 adj. net income** (assuming revenue +34% YoY, adj. GPM 57.6%, adj. tax rate 10.6%). Valuation sits between NVIDIA (~20x) and Broadcom (~27x).

**Shares have been soft recently**, on concerns about hyperscaler capex beyond 2027 (a sharp deceleration in 2028) and the fact that Trainium 3 is mainly with Alchip. **Management’s renewed multi-year uplift should help sentiment.** Even if the ‘disappointing’ ASIC segment grows only 20%+, optics/interconnect can still drive attractive growth.

**Comparing AMD and AVGO, hyperscalers in AI Data Centers prize ‘scaled cluster’ capabilities over simply ‘selling cards’.**

**While Celestial AI & XConn will not add revenue near term, the strategy is clearer.** Building out interconnect breadth to become a ‘scaled cluster’ provider should attract more customers and strengthen competitiveness.

Dolphin Research’s detailed take on Marvell (MRVL):

**I. Marvell’s biz.**

Marvell started with storage and expanded via a series of bolt-on M&A, with Data Center now its largest revenue driver. Details by segment:

**1) Data Center (~75%)**: **high-growth, benefiting from Data Center and ASIC demand, and the market’s key focus.** Includes optics/interconnect, SSD controllers, and custom ASIC (AMZN AWS, GOOGL Axion CPU, etc.), serving cloud servers and edge computing.

**2) Other (~25%)**: legacy Enterprise Networking, Carrier Infrastructure, Consumer, Auto & Industrial are now grouped into ‘Comm. & other’.

**II. Key metrics: EBITDA trending up**

**2.1 Revenue**

**Marvell delivered Q4 FY2026 revenue of $2.22bn, +7% QoQ, in line with the Street ($2.21bn).** Growth was driven by Data Center, notably custom ASIC and optics/interconnect.

**2.2 Gross profit**

**Q4 FY2026 GP was $1.15bn, +$80mn QoQ.** Headline GPM was 51.7%.

**Given amortization from acquisitions obscures GAAP GPM, we reference adj. GPM.** **Adj. GPM was 58.5%, down 50bps QoQ,** mainly due to a higher mix of lower-margin custom ASIC.

**2.3 Opex & profit**

Q4 FY2026 net income was $400mn. **Ex non-recurring items, EBITDA was $740mn, with EBITDA margin rising to 33.5%.** Opex was stable to slightly down, and the QoQ improvement was mainly volume-driven.

**III. Segment highlights: guide raised again; building ‘scaled cluster’ capability**

Since 2018, Marvell has acquired Cavium, Innovium, and others, strengthening ASIC and Data Center capabilities. **With rising demand from AMZN and GOOGL for custom ASIC and optics/interconnect, Data Center is on an uptrend and the biggest driver of results.**

**This quarter, traditional segments were consolidated into Comm. & other,** while Enterprise Networking, Carrier, Consumer, and Auto/Industrial each fell to ~10% or less of total.

**3.1 Data Center**

**Q4 FY2026 Data Center revenue was $1.65bn, +8.8% QoQ, in line with the Street ($1.64bn).** Growth was driven by custom ASIC and optics/interconnect.

AI already accounts for most of Data Center. **Dolphin Research estimates AI revenue at ~$960mn, +$110mn QoQ;** non-AI storage and other offerings saw modest sequential upticks. **AI as a share of total held above 40%, and mgmt’s goal remains 50%+.**

**Management raised the outlook again, now guiding FY2027 Data Center growth of 40%+.** Optics/interconnect to grow 50%+, and **custom ASIC 20%+; FY2028 Data Center growth to ~50%.**

**On ASIC, AMZN is the main customer, and AMZN recently lifted 2026 capex by ~50% YoY.** Marvell’s 20%+ full-year ASIC growth guide is **still notably lower.**

Market checks indicate AMZN’s latest Trainium 3 went to Alchip. **Marvell is focused on Trainium 2.5 (a mid-cycle rev), and its share in AMZN’s supply chain has slipped, implying ASIC growth below AMZN capex growth.**

**Versus ASIC, Dolphin Research sees the core priority shifting to ‘scaled cluster’ capability, supported by the acquisitions of Celestial AI & XConn.**

**① Celestial AI: bolstering silicon photonics and CPO, core to scaled interconnect**

Key tech is Photonic Fabric (PF), enabling large-scale CPO commercialization, with revenue contribution from 2028. The first chiplet is moving to mass production, with **FY2028 Q4 CPO ARR at $500mn (~$125mn per quarter) and FY2029 Q4 at $1bn (~$250mn per quarter)**.

**② XConn**: **enhancing PCIe/CXL switching, expanding AI infra interfaces**

It had 20+ customers pre-acquisition, and should scale quickly via Marvell’s global sales, potentially becoming a core PCIe/CXL switching player. It also reinforces UA-LINK and accelerates the scaled switching roadmap.

**Comparing AMD and AVGO share performance, hyperscalers value ‘scaled cluster’ capability in AI Data Centers over simply ‘selling cards’.**

**Celestial AI & XConn may not add near-term revenue, but the strategic focus is clear.** Building interconnect depth to become a ‘scaled cluster’ provider should drive broader customer adoption and competitiveness.

**3.2 Comm. & other**

The company consolidated disclosure to Comm. & other, no longer breaking out Enterprise Networking, Carrier, Consumer, Industrial, etc. **Q4 FY2026 Comm. & other revenue was $570mn, +25% YoY,** driven by a rebound in enterprise networking and carrier infrastructure.

**Management guides steady growth for Comm. & other,** with FY2027 at ~10% and FY2028 in the low single digits. Trajectory remains stable.

<End here>

Prior Dolphin Research coverage on Marvell (MRVL):

Earnings:

Dec 3, 2025 Trans ‘[Marvell (Trans): AWS becomes Celestial AI’s ‘core lead customer’](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/36868576)’

Dec 3, 2025 First Take ‘[Marvell: Targeted M&A fills gaps; is the NVIDIA ‘alt’ path now faster?](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/36866810)’

Aug 29, 2025 Trans ‘[Marvell (Trans): still no direct response to Alchip’s challenge](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/33459106)’

Aug 29, 2025 First Take ‘[Marvell: hyperscaler spend is generous; why didn’t ASIC ‘catch a tailwind’?](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/33455225)’

May 30, 2025 Trans ‘[Marvell (Trans): AI to reach half of total revenue](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/30189065)’

May 30, 2025 First Take ‘[Marvell: AI sequential growth ‘stalled’; where’s the next ‘ace’?](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/30184584)’

Mar 6, 2025 Trans ‘[Marvell (Trans): Data Center growth cracked](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/27852608)’

Mar 6, 2025 First Take ‘[Marvell: another splash of cold water on AI; ASIC flashing warning signs](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/27847825)’

Deep dives:

Jan 14, 2025 Company Deep Dive ‘[ASIC battle: can Marvell beat Broadcom?](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/26604690)’

Jan 2, 2025 Company Deep Dive ‘[Marvell: challenging trillion-dollar Broadcom; can ASIC ignite a comeback?](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/26395071)’

Risk disclosure and statements: [Dolphin Research disclaimer and general disclosure](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer)

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