--- title: "Don't just focus on oil prices. What the market is really afraid of this round is that the transmission chain has already begun." type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39240600.md" description: "These days, everyone's been talking about the US-Iran conflict, mostly focusing on oil prices, and I was the same at first. But after watching the market for a long time today, I'm increasingly feeling that if you only look at whether Brent crude has risen in this round of market movement, you're actually a bit late. Because what the market is starting to trade now is no longer just "oil," but whether, after the oil price is passed down, it will re-ignite inflation, delay interest rate cuts, and drag down the valuations of Hong Kong and US stocks together. That's the most uncomfortable part. The IEA has already coordinated the release of 400 million barrels of strategic reserves from 32 member countries, and the US is also releasing 172 million barrels..." datetime: "2026-03-13T05:28:55.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39240600.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39240600.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39240600.md) author: "[James小韭日记](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/25149055.md)" --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39240600.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39240600.md) # Don't just focus on oil prices. What the market is really afraid of this round is that the transmission chain has already begun. In recent days, everyone has been talking about the US-Iran conflict, mostly focusing on oil prices, and I was the same at the beginning. But after watching the market closely today, I'm increasingly feeling that if we only look at whether Brent crude has risen in this round of market movement, it's actually a bit late. Because what the market is now starting to price in is no longer just "oil," but rather **whether, after the oil price transmits downwards, it will rekindle inflation, delay interest rate cuts, and drag down the valuations of Hong Kong and US stocks**. This is the most uncomfortable part. The IEA has already coordinated the release of **400 million barrels** of strategic reserves from 32 member countries, and the US is also releasing **172 million barrels**, but in today's Asian session, Brent crude is still hovering around **$99.85**, WTI around **$95**, and Asia-Pacific stock markets continue to be weak, indicating that the market is not fully soothed at all. ### **I. Oil price is just the first layer; the real trouble is "high costs starting to spill over"** The Strait of Hormuz normally carries about **one-fifth of the world's daily oil and LNG supply**, so once it gets blocked, the impact is never as simple as a jump in crude oil quotes. The reason the market is still afraid today is not because people don't know about SPR, but because everyone understands that SPR can only replenish inventory; it can't make up for shipping lane safety, nor can it alleviate companies' anxiety about future costs. ### **II. What's easier to overlook than oil are LNG, diesel, fertilizer, and sulfur** The more I watched today, the more I felt that what's truly scary is this "second layer of transmission." First is LNG. Asian buyers, in order to fill the gap from Middle Eastern supply cuts, have snatched away cargo originally destined for Europe. Even LNG ships from the US and Nigeria are changing destinations. Asian spot prices have been pushed to **$20 to $25 per million British thermal units**. Looking further, the surge in diesel prices has been directly described by Reuters as threatening a global economic slowdown because diesel isn't for storytelling; it directly corresponds to logistics, manufacturing, and transportation costs. The fertilizer situation is even more painful. Fertilizer prices at the New Orleans import hub have jumped from **$516/ton** to **$683/ton**, and now happens to be the spring planting window. An even more easily overlooked dark line is sulfur. The Middle East accounts for about 24% of global **sulfur production, and Indonesian nickel plants rely on the Middle East for about** 75% of their sulfur. This stuff is key for making sulfuric acid, which in turn is linked to nickel, copper, and fertilizer. In other words, this round of impact isn't a single line; it's energy, agriculture, and metals all being pulled along together. ### **III. It all comes back to Hong Kong and US stocks in the end: interest rate expectations, profit margins, and sentiment all get hurt together** This is also my biggest takeaway today. Many people think this round is just a story about resource stocks, but judging by the market action, it seems more like the market is trading a more troublesome logic: **costs go up, corporate profit margins come under pressure; inflation concerns return, pushing back interest rate cut expectations; once rates rise, tech and growth stock valuations become easier to kill.** Reuters mentioned today that the market's expectations for Fed rate cuts this year have shrunk from **50 basis points** last month to **20 basis points** now, and the two-year US Treasury yield has also hit a six-month high. For retail investors like us who trade Hong Kong and US stocks, the most annoying thing in this environment isn't being wrong on direction, but that many familiar trading logics are starting to become dull. You think you're watching oil, but what ends up getting hit might be tech stock valuations, consumer expectations, or even overall market sentiment. So my biggest conclusion today is just one sentence: **If we still only focus on the oil price itself in this market round, we might already be one step behind. What we really should watch is whether the transmission chain continues downwards.** As long as links like LNG, diesel, fertilizer, and metals are still spreading, the market will find it hard to truly relax. To put it bluntly, the oil price is just the most visible jump; the subsequent chain reaction of costs, interest rates, and valuations is where retail investors are most easily tormented repeatedly. When you've been watching the market these past couple of days, have you found that you're no longer afraid of oil prices, but rather afraid that "high oil prices will throw the entire market rhythm off track"? **This article only reflects personal stock trading insights and does not constitute investment advice~**$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US)  $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) ### Related Stocks - [NASDAQ Composite Index (.IXIC.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [ProShares Short Dow30 (DOG.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DOG.US.md) - [Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.DJI.US.md)