Bros, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) is still falling so much today, while $Apple Inc.(AAPL.US) has stabilized at 55 yuan. Seems like it's over. The night market opens tonight, will $Tesla(TSLA.US) go strong? I'm losing money and really want to bottom-fish, but I'm afraid of falling into a trap. What price did everyone get in at?
" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39264777.md" description: "🔥 War, oil price surge, market panic—but the real question is: why does the market end up handing money to long-term investors after every war? Over the past two weeks, oil prices have skyrocketed from $65 all the way to $115, then retreated to around $100. In just 14 days, the gain is close to 45%. Many people seeing this kind of news would do only one thing: panic. But if you look back at history, you'll discover a very counterintuitive fact: almost every war creates a “panic discount.” And this is exactly the moment long-term investors love the most..." datetime: "2026-03-14T14:55:57.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39264777.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39264777.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39264777.md) author: "[辰逸](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/16318663.md)" --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39264777.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39264777.md) #Bros, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) is still falling so much today, while $Apple Inc.(AAPL.US) has stabilized at 55 yuan. Seems like it's over. The night market opens tonight, will $Tesla(TSLA.US) go strong? I'm losing money and really want to bottom-fish, but I'm afraid of falling into a trap. What price did everyone get in at?
🔥 War, surging oil prices, market panic—but the real question is: why does the market end up handing money to long-term investors after every war? Over the past two weeks, oil prices have soared from $65 all the way to $115, then retreated to around $100. In just 14 days, the increase was close to 45%. Many people seeing such news do only one thing: panic. But if you look back at history, you'll find a very counterintuitive fact: Almost every war creates a "panic discount." And this is precisely the moment long-term investors love most. Many media outlets are now repeatedly emphasizing a word: Stagflation. It means: Rising unemployment Rising inflation Declining economic growth It sounds like the worst possible combination for the economy. And the logic the market is worried about now is this: Rising oil prices → Rising inflation Worsening employment data → Economic slowdown The Fed can neither cut interest rates nor easily control inflation Thus, market sentiment quickly enters "extreme fear." But the problem is, the market's way of pricing future risks has always been extreme. Once a new risk emerges, the market often directly assumes the worst-case scenario has already happened. For example, this oil price surge is primarily due to the Hormuz Strait. This is one of the world's most critical energy transportation chokepoints: About 20% of global oil shipments must pass through here. Iran has recently created significant uncertainty through: Drone attacks Mine-laying Disrupting tanker traffic Attacking surrounding energy facilities And what the market hates most is "uncertainty." So oil prices were quickly priced as an extreme scenario: As if global oil supply would be severely impacted for the next 12–24 months. But history tells us almost every time: Wars create oil price shocks, but rarely change long-term supply and demand. 1990 Gulf War Oil price from $17 → $40 Back to $20 a year later 2003 Iraq War Oil price rose short-term Then gradually declined 2022 Russia-Ukraine War Oil price from $74 → $130 Back to $80 a year later In other words: Wars cause short-term volatility, not long-term structural change. But the most interesting thing about financial markets is here: When risk appears, the market immediately prices in the worst scenarios for the next several years. And once reality isn't that bad, the market begins to correct. This is why wars often lead to a very consistent market pattern: Phase 1: Panic Phase 2: Market decline Phase 3: Capital flows back Phase 4: Recovery and rise The statistics are even remarkably consistent. For the vast majority of wars in history, the impact on the stock market is roughly: A decline window of around 30 days. Then, within 6–12 months, indices usually return to pre-war levels. Looking over longer cycles, this pattern becomes even more obvious. There have been about 70 wars globally over the past 30 years. But during the same period: The S&P 500 rose from 470 points to nearly 6900 points. A gain of over 1200%. This isn't an opinion; it's objective data. War didn't destroy the market. What truly destroys investor returns is something else: Panic selling. Many people choose to exit the market during wars, crises, and news shocks. But true long-term investors do the exact opposite. They gradually buy when the market panics. The reason is simple: The market is driven by emotion in the short term and by profits in the long term. And most wars do not permanently alter corporate profitability. Another overlooked fact is: Rising oil prices aren't always bad. The US is now one of the world's largest oil producers. Rising oil prices mean: Higher profits for energy companies Increased energy investment Some regional economies actually benefit Of course, no one wants oil to reach $140/barrel. But a short-term energy shock doesn't automatically lead to economic collapse. The real risk is: Investors making the most extreme decisions when emotions are at their most extreme. For example: 2003 Iraq War S&P500 fell from 1172 to 800 12 months later The index returned to 1172 2022 Ukraine War S&P500 fell from 4800 to 3667 12 months later, back to 4800 again Almost every geopolitical crisis, the market's trajectory is very similar. Panic → Decline → Recovery. So many long-term investors' strategy is actually very simple: Buy the dip. Not predicting wars Not predicting oil prices Not guessing the news But adding quality assets when market sentiment is extreme. For example: Technology Artificial Intelligence Software Long-term growth companies What truly determines the stock price of these companies isn't war, but: Profitability over the next 5–10 years. If you stretch the timeline, you'll find a very interesting phenomenon. Starting to invest at the peak of the 2000 dot-com bubble was actually one of the worst starting points in history. But if an investor dollar-cost averaged into the S&P 500 every week: After 25 years The investment return could still exceed 500%. Looking at just the past 15 years: The S&P 500's return is close to 700%. During which it experienced: Financial crisis Pandemic Multiple wars Multiple bear markets Yet the long-term trend is still upward. This is why many top investors say: The biggest risk to the market has never been war, but emotion. Because war creates panic. And panic often creates price dislocation. If history is any guide, then almost every geopolitical crisis repeats the same story: Short-term chaos, long-term opportunity. The real question isn't actually: "Will war affect the market?" But: When the market panics, will you choose to flee, or start positioning? If history continues to repeat, it tends to reward only one type of person: Those who remain patient when others are panicking.