--- title: "Neither US stocks nor gold held up. What should we really focus on in the market this week?" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39275567.md" description: "Last Friday night's market left many feeling uneasy: logically, when economic data weakens, the market sometimes trades on the idea that 'recession = faster rate cuts,' but this time it didn't play out that way. As a result, the three major U.S. stock indices continued to close lower, ending the week in the red; gold didn't show strong safe-haven demand either, with spot gold falling to around $5052 on Friday and dropping nearly 1% again during Monday's Asian morning session before barely stabilizing around $5020. The most uncomfortable part of this market is that neither stocks nor gold are doing well, indicating that what the market fears now is no longer a single negative factor..." datetime: "2026-03-16T06:25:56.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39275567.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39275567.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39275567.md) author: "[James小韭日记](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/25149055.md)" --- # Neither US stocks nor gold held up. What should we really focus on in the market this week? The market action on Friday night left many feeling uneasy. Logically, weak economic data sometimes leads the market to trade on the idea that 'recession = faster rate cuts,' but that didn't happen this time. The result was that the three major U.S. stock indices continued to close lower, ending the week in the red. Gold didn't show strong safe-haven demand either; spot gold fell to around **$5052** on Friday and dropped nearly **1%** again during Monday's Asian morning session before barely stabilizing around **$5020**. The most uncomfortable aspect of this market is that neither stocks nor gold are performing well, indicating that the market is no longer fearing a single negative factor but rather the compounding of several troublesome issues. ### **1\. Why Stocks and Gold Were Weak Together on Friday** The U.S. Q4 GDP annualized growth rate was revised down from a previous estimate of **1.4%** to just **0.7%**, essentially halved. January personal consumption expenditure grew **0.4%** month-over-month, but after adjusting for prices, real consumption only increased by **0.1%**. Even more troubling for the market was core PCE, which rose **0.4%** month-over-month and **3.1%** year-over-year in January, the highest since **March 2024**. In plain English: the economy isn't as strong as people thought, and inflation isn't as tame as people thought. With this combination, the market's first thought wasn't 'rate cuts are coming soon,' but rather 'the Fed might have to keep holding steady.' Gold theoretically hedges against inflation, but once high oil prices push back rate cut expectations, real interest rates and dollar expectations will conversely pressure gold. So, its recent choppy performance doesn't surprise me at all. ### **2\. The Weekend Brought No Relief, Only More Pressure** What really added pressure over the weekend was the lack of significant de-escalation in the Middle East. The latest weekend news showed the U.S. pushing allies to discuss securing passage through the Strait of Hormuz while continuing pressure on key Iranian energy-related nodes. Risks to core export hubs like Kharg Island remain on the table. As a result, oil prices climbed back to high levels during Monday's Asian session, with Brent crude around **$104** and WTI near **$100**. As long as oil stays at these levels, the market will continue to worry about one thing: previously, people thought tariff-driven inflation was a one-off; now, energy prices have delivered another blow, making inflation less likely to come down easily. Precisely because of this logic, overall sentiment in Asian markets on Monday remained cautious, and market bets on Fed rate cuts this year continued to shrink. ### **3\. The Focus This Week** Personally, I'm focusing on just three things this week. First is, of course, oil prices. Don't be fooled by all the war talk; for Hong Kong and U.S. stocks, the most direct transmission will ultimately come down to 'whether oil prices can stabilize soon.' Second is the Fed meeting. No rate cut this time is almost a consensus; what the market is really watching is the statement, **Jensen Huang**'s remarks, and whether the dot plot further removes room for easing within the year. Third is **NVIDIA**'s **GTC2026**. The market will definitely be watching **Jensen Huang**'s keynote from tonight to early tomorrow morning Beijing time to see if the AI theme can regain momentum. Simply put, the most troublesome part of the current market isn't a complete lack of direction, but rather that macro factors are pressuring valuations while AI is supporting sentiment. These two forces are pulling back and forth, making it particularly easy to disrupt short-term psychology. So my personal feeling right now is simple: this is not the time to go all in on a whim, because the market isn't trading on a simple piece of bad news. It's trading on 'whether high oil prices will drag an already not-so-strong economy into an even more uncomfortable phase.' If oil prices can drop significantly over the next two weeks, a lot of pressure will ease. But if oil prices continue to grind at high levels and the Fed's tone becomes more hawkish, neither U.S. stocks nor gold may be easy to play in the short term. For now, I'm leaning towards moving less and observing more, getting a clear view of these three major events before deciding how to proceed. **This article is only my personal stock trading experience and does not constitute investment advice~**$Us Brent Oil(BNO.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Gabelli Global Utility & Income(GLU.US) ### Related Stocks - [GLU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLU.US.md) - [BNO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BNO.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [NVDL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDL.US.md) - [07788.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07788.HK.md) - [07388.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07388.HK.md) - [NVDY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDY.US.md) - [NVDD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDD.US.md) - [NVDX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDX.US.md) - [NVDQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDQ.US.md)