---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39343474.md"
description: "There's probably nothing to see in the first half of the year; it's suitable for guerrilla tactics or watching the show with a light position. There are currently many uncertain factors.1. Core PCE prices have been rising continuously since last year's tariffs.2. Geopolitics are pushing up crude oil prices, raising short-to-medium-term inflation expectations.3. The Fed chair transition is still ongoing, and Warsh hasn't made a statement yet (the market seems to have forgotten him). Monetary policy uncertainty is very high. Based on current data, the probability of a rate cut in the first half of Powell's term is not high.4. The Reserve Bank of Australia has already raised rates twice. This week is a super central bank week; pay more attention to the actions of global central banks.5. Non-farm payrolls were again much lower than expected, showing some signs of stagflation trading.Also, pay attention to Bitcoin's halt and crash last year, followed by the collapse of many individual stocks and the sideways movement of the major indices, which basically indicates the direction of liquidity expectations."
datetime: "2026-03-18T14:28:37.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39343474.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39343474.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39343474.md)
author: "[左饼右箭](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/13751259.md)"
---

# There's probably nothing to see in the first half …


### Related Stocks

- [ABTC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ABTC.US.md)
- [GBTC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GBTC.US.md)
- [SBET.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SBET.US.md)

## Comments (1)

- **左饼右箭 · 2026-03-18T14:35:13.000Z · 👍 1**: Traders have fully priced in expectations for the European Central Bank to raise interest rates twice by 25 basis points each in 2026.