--- title: "The logic of subsequent transactions" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39427207.md" description: "Do some thinking about the subsequent path and make judgments about future trading directions. The current macro backdrop is still a rate-cutting cycle, however, the European Central Bank and the UK have not cut rates, Australia has raised rates, and Japan says it will raise rates. Due to the potential follow-on effects from the US-Iran conflict and crude oil, the overall sentiment is hawkish, and the rate-cutting cycle has reached its substantive end. Therefore, a conclusion should be drawn here: a broad-based rally is unrealistic, and divergence will intensify. So, there should be some scenarios next. 1. The war ends quickly, everything returns to normal, risk appetite can continue to expand, liquidity is released again, a return to rapid rate cuts, gold ↑, risk assets ↑, this outcome is difficult..." datetime: "2026-03-22T04:53:35.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39427207.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39427207.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39427207.md) author: "[哥哥](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/14720746.md)" --- # The logic of subsequent transactions Conduct some thinking on the subsequent path and judgment on future trading directions. The current macro backdrop remains a rate-cutting cycle; however, the European Central Bank and the UK have not cut rates, Australia has raised rates, Japan has indicated it will raise rates. Due to the US-Iran conflict and the potential subsequent impact of crude oil, the overall stance is hawkish. The rate-cutting cycle has reached its substantive end, so a conclusion should be drawn here: a broad-based rally is unrealistic, and divergence will intensify. Therefore, some scenarios are likely to unfold. 1. The war ends quickly, everything returns to normal, risk appetite can continue to expand, liquidity is released again, rapid rate cuts resume, Gold ↑, risk assets ↑. This outcome is difficult. 2. Conditional end to the war, crude oil has a controllable substantive impact on inflation, limited liquidity easing. Then we return to the narrative of AI bubble + intensified divergence, risk assets fluctuate, Gold fluctuates. 3. The war does not end in a short time, crude oil remains at high levels for an extended period, inflation impact is significant, the rate-cutting path cannot proceed, but we haven't reached the point of rate hikes. Risk assets remain under sustained pressure, slowly declining; the mid-term easing logic for Gold is suppressed, slowly declining. 4. The war escalates in intensity, crude oil price increases become difficult to control, measures such as lifting sanctions on Russia are not ruled out. Inflation spirals out of control, rate hikes are implemented, but with massive US Treasury debt maturing within a year, larger-scale money printing occurs. Risk assets ↓, Gold ↑. Below is the AI-polished version, clearer. I. Baseline Judgment (Current Core Conclusion) 1\. The rate-cutting cycle has entered its substantive end, global central banks are overall hawkish + rate cuts delayed. ​ 2\. A comprehensive, broad-based rally is unrealistic; structural divergence and volatility will be the norm. ​ 3\. Baseline path: Localized conflict stalemate → Oil price range-bound volatility → High interest rates maintained for longer. II. 6 Scenarios + Probability + Asset Direction + Trading Ideas Scenario 1: Conflict ends quickly, return to easing (Low probability ≈5%) - Trigger: Quick ceasefire + oil price rapid decline ​ - Policy: Restart rate cuts, liquidity eases again ​ - Assets: ​ - Gold ↑↑ ​ - Growth stocks, risk assets broadly ↑ ​ - Trading: ​ - Increase positions in growth, AI, Gold ​ - Go long on trends Scenario 2: Conditional ceasefire, inflation controllable (Medium probability ≈25%) - Trigger: Limited ceasefire, oil price impact on inflation controllable ​ - Policy: Cautious, slow rate cuts ​ - Assets: ​ - Risk assets volatile but strong ​ - Gold volatile ​ - Trading: ​ - Main theme remains AI + quality growth ​ - Range trading, don't chase highs Scenario 3: Conflict long-term stalemate, oil price high (Medium-high probability ≈30%) - Trigger: War of attrition, crude oil remains high ​ - Policy: Rate-cutting path interrupted, but no hikes ​ - Assets: ​ - Risk assets slowly shift lower ​ - Gold's mid-term easing logic suppressed, weak volatility ​ - Trading: ​ - Reduce total position size ​ - Lean towards dividend, defensive, cash flow sectors ​ - Less trend-following, more selling on rebounds Scenario 4: Conflict escalates, inflation out of control (Low probability ≈5%) - Trigger: Sea lane blockade / full-scale expansion of war, oil price surges ​ - Policy: Inflation out of control, forced rate hikes; simultaneous US debt pressure forces passive easing ​ - Assets: ​ - Risk assets ↓↓ ​ - Gold ↑↑ (Anti-inflation + monetary credit logic) ​ - Trading: ​ - Significantly reduce equity positions ​ - Increase allocation to Gold, safe-haven assets ​ - Focus on defense Scenario 5: Fighting while talking, oil price range-bound (Current baseline ≈25%) - Trigger: Localized conflict, no sea lane blockade, oil price 90–110 range ​ - Policy: Rate cuts significantly delayed, high rates maintained for the year ​ - Assets: ​ - Equities: Extreme divergence, AI + dividend defense two lines ​ - Gold: Volatile but strong (Safe-haven support + high rate suppression) ​ - Crude oil: Range-bound fluctuations ​ - Trading: ​ - Neutral position size, structure over macro trend ​ - Capture main theme swings, don't overstay Scenario 6: Stagflation volatility, central banks "hawkish talk, steady action" (≈10%) - Trigger: Economic slowdown + sticky inflation, central banks neither raise nor cut, long-term wait-and-see ​ - Constraint: US Treasury supply pressure → long-end rates rise, valuation pressure ​ - Assets: ​ - Risk assets: Volatile and weak, trends difficult ​ - Gold: Range-bound volatility ​ - Trading: ​ - Low position size, short cycles ​ - Watch more, act less, focus on defense and arbitrage - $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US) $Newmont(NEM.US) $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Tesla(TSLA.US) $United States Oil Fund LP(USO.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) ### Related Stocks - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/USO.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [TSLA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [QQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQ.US.md) - [PSQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PSQ.US.md) - [GLD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLD.US.md) - [NEM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NEM.US.md) - [SQQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SQQQ.US.md) - [MSFT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFT.US.md) - [AMZN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMZN.US.md) - [MSFL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFL.US.md) - [MSFO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFO.US.md) - [MSFD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFD.US.md) - [MSFU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFU.US.md) - [MSFX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFX.US.md) - [MSFY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFY.US.md) - [NVDL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDL.US.md) - [07788.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07788.HK.md) - [07388.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07388.HK.md) - [NVDY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDY.US.md)