---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39427523.md"
description: "Ray Dalio points out in his article "Everything Comes Down to Who Controls the Strait of Hormuz: The Final Battle" that the current situation has evolved into a decisive game concerning the shift in global order. The following are the core points of his article:1. The Strait of Hormuz is the sole criterion for determining victory or defeat. Dalio believes that everything comes down to who controls the Strait of Hormuz. This is not just a military confrontation, but also a battle of credibility. If the United States cannot ensure the free passage of the strait, regardless of its military strength, it will be judged as defeated by the world.2. The United States' Suez Canal Moment. He presents a highly cautionary view: if the U.S. loses control of the strait, it will become a turning point in the decline of American hegemony, similar to the devastating blow the Suez Canal Crisis of 1956 dealt to the British Empire. This would cause allies to lose confidence in America's protective capabilities, global creditors to doubt the U.S. dollar and American debt, leading to a global outflow of funds from the U.S. towards gold or other assets.3. The Game of Willpower: The Ability to Endure Pain. Dalio emphasizes that the outcome of war depends not only on the ability to inflict pain, but more so on the ability to endure it. Iran sees this as a war for survival, with a strong willingness to sacrifice; while the U.S., constrained by domestic politics, midterm elections, and public aversion to high oil prices, has a relatively weaker capacity to endure prolonged pain.4. The Futility of Agreements and the Final Battle. He believes the current situation can no longer be resolved through diplomatic agreements, as agreements are worthless in a context of broken mutual trust. Only through a final battle that clearly establishes who is the order-setter can the conflict truly end. The outcome of this battle will directly reshape the global geopolitical landscape.5. Macro Background: In a Turbulent Phase of the Big Cycle. Dalio places this event within the framework of the five major forces he studies. The U.S. is currently in a phase of simultaneous internal political polarization and external geopolitical conflict. Facing military challenges while experiencing financial overextension (high debt) is a classic sign of imperial decline in history."
datetime: "2026-03-22T06:26:15.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39427523.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39427523.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39427523.md)
author: "[Freemason](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/14860395.md)"
---

# Ray Dalio points out in his article "Everythin…