--- title: "The market just took a breather, it's not completely recovered: my real feeling about US stocks today" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39544202.md" description: "The market action over the past two days can be summed up in two words: awkward. On one hand, the market keeps trying to bet on an easing of tensions, thinking the worst might be over for now; on the other hand, oil prices remain high, and gold hasn't shown particularly strong safe-haven behavior, indicating that capital is still uneasy deep down. This feeling right now is a lot like the state many retail investors are in recently: wanting to bottom-fish, but afraid of catching a falling knife; wanting to wait a bit longer, but afraid of missing out on a sudden big rally. My biggest takeaway these past two days is that the market isn't without a breather, but this breather feels more like a brief respite, not a genuine turn towards strength. 1. The most awkward part right now..." datetime: "2026-03-26T11:17:44.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39544202.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39544202.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39544202.md) author: "[James小韭日记](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/25149055.md)" --- # The market just took a breather, it's not completely recovered: my real feeling about US stocks today The market over the past couple of days can be summed up in two words: twisted. On one hand, the market is eager to bet on a de-escalation, thinking the worst might be over. On the other hand, oil prices remain high, and gold hasn't shown a particularly strong safe-haven rally, indicating that capital isn't truly at ease. This feeling is very much like the state many retail investors are in lately: wanting to bottom-fish but afraid of buying halfway down the mountain; wanting to wait a bit longer but afraid of missing out on a sudden big green candle. My biggest takeaway these past two days is that the market isn't without a breather, but this breath feels more like a brief respite, not a genuine turn for the stronger. ### **1\. The most awkward part right now is the simultaneous existence of "de-escalation expectations" and "real-world pressure."** Recently, the market has been caught in a tug-of-war between two narratives. The first narrative is the market's belief that there's still room for de-escalation. At the slightest hint of negotiation, ceasefire, or concessions, capital immediately wants to chase a rebound, because the pressure has been building for too long, and everyone fears missing that recovery bounce. The second narrative is more realistic: what truly affects the market isn't just talk, but whether things like oil prices, shipping, and inflation have actually eased substantially. The current problem is that the former provides emotional support for the market, while the latter hasn't yet provided real reassurance. That's why the market ends up like this—unable to fall smoothly, unable to rise with confidence, and always at risk of having its rhythm disrupted by a new piece of news. This is also why US stocks lately always give a feeling of "seemingly stabilizing," yet always lacking that final push. Because capital is willing to engage in short-term repair trades doesn't mean it truly believes the risk has passed. ### **2\. What I'm more concerned about now isn't the index rebound, but the market slowly starting to accept that "high oil prices will last longer."** Many people focus on index gains and losses, but I'm more concerned about another issue now: whether the market is already re-adapting to the idea that "high oil prices will persist longer." Once the market truly accepts this, the subsequent logic becomes troublesome. High oil prices mean inflationary pressure won't ease easily. If inflation doesn't ease, interest rates won't loosen quickly. If interest rates don't loosen, the valuations of growth and tech stocks will remain suppressed. This is why many tech stocks lately feel similar: the companies themselves don't have major issues, their long-term theses are still intact, but their stock prices just don't move comfortably. It's not that the fundamentals have collapsed, but that the macro environment doesn't provide fertile ground for a comfortable rally. I already hold stocks like Google, NVIDIA, and Tesla myself, so this feeling is particularly pronounced. In the past, often you could just look at the company, feel the thesis was still valid, and hold on. But now it's different. The macro hand is constantly pressing down. Even if the company is fine, it's hard for the stock to move smoothly in the short term. ### **3\. My conclusion is simple: now is not the time to charge in with confidence, but it's not bad enough to despair.** If I had to sum up my current view of the market in the plainest terms, it's still cautious. It's not that a big drop is certain here, nor that one can't be bullish at all, but rather that this current phase feels more like a stage of "high volatility, repeated tug-of-war," not the clear start of a new trend. As long as oil prices remain high and the geopolitical situation hasn't seen a genuine turning point, the market will likely keep switching between optimism and worry. The most frustrating part of this kind of market for retail investors is that it won't present the answer all at once. It always makes you feel "it seems okay now," only to slap you in the face moments later. Just a few days ago, we were scared by a sell-off; today, a slight rebound easily makes people get carried away. But what's most dangerous at times like this isn't being wrong about the direction, but having your rhythm disrupted and letting your emotions be dragged along by the market's movements. So I still say: moving less is no shame. When you can't see clearly, don't rush to prove how brave you are. What the market needs most right now isn't impulse, it's patience. **This article is just my personal stock trading thoughts and does not constitute investment advice.** ### Related Stocks - [GOOGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOGL.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [TSLA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [GOOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOG.US.md) - [GGLS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GGLS.US.md) - [GGLL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GGLL.US.md) - [NVDL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDL.US.md) - [07788.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07788.HK.md) - [07388.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07388.HK.md) - [NVDY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDY.US.md) - [NVDD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDD.US.md) - [NVDX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDX.US.md) - [NVDQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDQ.US.md) - [TSDD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSDD.US.md) - [TSLL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLL.US.md) - [TSLQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLQ.US.md) - [09366.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09366.HK.md) - [07766.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07766.HK.md) - [07366.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07366.HK.md) - [TSLR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLR.US.md)