--- title: "March 26, 2026" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39546559.md" description: "Recently, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has continued to dominate market sentiment, with oil prices and U.S. stocks showing a rare and extreme negative correlation. Although U.S. stocks closed higher overnight due to ceasefire news, the decline in after-hours futures and Iran's tough response indicate that the bulls are not truly in control. For tonight's operations, the core idea is to watch more and move less, focusing on event-driven short-term swings and avoiding chasing highs. 1. Macro Background: Geopolitical Games Dominate, Beware of the "High Open, Low Close" Trap The only main theme of tonight's market remains the Middle East situation. Although the three major U.S. stock indices closed higher yesterday, this was mainly stimulated by the pre-market news of a "U.S.-Iran ceasefire proposal"..." datetime: "2026-03-26T13:09:48.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39546559.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39546559.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39546559.md) author: "[秋天里一把火](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/22876329.md)" --- # March 26, 2026 Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have continued to dominate market sentiment, with oil prices and U.S. stocks showing a rare and extreme negative correlation. Although U.S. stocks closed higher overnight due to ceasefire news, the decline in after-hours futures and Iran's tough response indicate that the bulls are not truly in control. For tonight's operations, the core idea is to watch more and act less, focusing on event-driven short-term swings and avoiding chasing highs. I. Macro Background: Geopolitical Game Dominates, Beware of the "High Open, Low Close" Trap The sole main theme of tonight's market remains the Middle East situation. Although the three major U.S. stock indices closed higher yesterday, this was mainly stimulated by pre-market news of a "U.S.-Iran ceasefire proposal," while the actual intraday trend was a volatile decline. The latest situation has deteriorated: 1. Negotiations Break Down: Iran has formally rejected the U.S. ceasefire proposal and submitted a counter-proposal including "complete cessation of aggression," meaning the conflict is difficult to ease in the short term. 2. Conflict Escalation: Iran has not only attacked Gulf countries, but Abu Dhabi, UAE, suffered civilian casualties due to falling debris from intercepted missiles, raising regional tensions. 3. Oil Prices Remain High: Brent crude has climbed above $100/barrel, and WTI crude has rebounded above $93. High oil prices are backfiring on the economy, with the import price index recording its largest increase since 2022, which will intensify market concerns about inflation and Fed tightening. Furthermore, liquidity risks cannot be ignored. Recently, the S&P 500 has experienced intraday fluctuations exceeding 1% for six consecutive trading days. This high-volatility environment is very prone to "long-short double kills." At the same time, there are allegations of insider trading using national security information in the market, putting ordinary retail investors at a natural disadvantage under such information asymmetry. II. Today's Trading Plan Given the above macro background, it is not advisable to heavily bet on a single direction today. It is more suitable to use volatility for buying low and selling high. Target Direction Key Levels/Strategy Trading Logic Nasdaq 100 Bearish Volatility Short on rebound to 24300-24400 area, stop loss above 24500, target 23900 Tech stocks are sensitive to rates; high oil prices suppress valuations; consider a quick rebound if the index drops sharply to support due to news. NVIDIA (NVDA) Watch/Hedge Monitor if the pre-market 0.6% drop expands As a former leader and index heavyweight, a breakdown would drag down the broader market; long positions could consider buying put options for hedging. ARM Buy on Pullback Wait for stabilization in the $140-145 range to enter The fundamental logic has changed; a pullback dragged by the broader market is a medium-to-long-term buying opportunity. Trading Reasons (Detailed Analysis): 1. Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX): Bearish Volatility Trading · Trading Reason: The current market structure is fragile. Although U.S. stocks closed higher yesterday, buying power was exhausted intraday, with clear signs of major players selling into the high open. As tech stock valuations are most sensitive to interest rates, the Nasdaq faces the greatest pressure for a pullback amid high oil prices eroding corporate profits. Once news of intensified U.S.-Iran conflict emerges intraday, the Nasdaq's decline will be faster than the Dow's. · Specific Levels: Aggressive traders are advised to short in the 24300-24400 range (referencing yesterday's TECH100 high area), with a stop loss set above 24500. The downside target is around 23900. If the index falls rapidly to support and oil prices show signs of retreat, consider a short-term long, but exit quickly. 1. NVIDIA (NVDA): The Bull's "Anchor" or "Achilles' Heel" · Trading Reason: It's down 0.6% pre-market. NVDA is currently a core market heavyweight. If NVDA's decline expands after tonight's open (e.g., exceeding 1.5%), it can basically confirm that major capital is selling into the rebound, at which point the broader market rally will be declared over. If holding other tech longs, NVDA's weakness is a clear hedging signal. 1. Arm Holdings (ARM): Independent Opportunity Amidst the Downturn · Trading Reason: ARM announced its self-developed AI server chip (Arm AGI CPU), breaking a 30+ year business model. This is a significant fundamental qualitative change. Although it surged last night, a pullback dragged by the broader market would be a medium-to-long-term layout opportunity. · Focus: Watch the $140-145 support zone. Institutions are divided (Citi bullish, Goldman bearish), but such divergence can create buying opportunities amidst volatility. As long as the order logic from major clients like Meta, OpenAI remains unchanged, a pullback is an opportunity. III. Risk Warnings and Risk Control 1. Don't Catch a Falling Knife: If the market plunges sharply tonight due to sudden news like missile attacks, don't buy the dip immediately. This kind of geopolitical panic often has momentum to the downside. Wait for the first wave of selling to end and for oil prices to show signs of stalling before considering entry. 2. Beware of "Fake News" Risk: The market has been heavily influenced by Trump administration rhetoric recently, with suspicions of insider trading. If sudden "ceasefire" or other positive news emerges intraday, causing a straight-line rally, absolutely do not chase. This is likely the bulls' final trap. Wait for a pullback and confirmation before acting. 3. Stop-Loss Discipline: Current market volatility is extreme. Any trade must have a hard stop loss. Especially when shorting the Nasdaq, if the index strongly breaks and holds above 24500, you must exit and watch, indicating a possible reversal in market sentiment. 1. Summary: Hold cash tonight, don't be tempted by intraday spike moves. 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