--- title: "Stock Live Trading P168: Potential Sword" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39554532.md" description: "It's been almost two months of ups and downs, and my analysis at the end of January was completely right. I think we can only focus on the main theme; all the side themes have collapsed. Now two months have passed, the "Seven Sisters" are still bleeding, and storage stocks are still soaring. For Pop Mart, I judged yesterday that it would definitely fall today, and today it indeed plummeted. Actually, I already gave the reasoning for yesterday's judgment. Things like Pop Mart, Pinduoduo, and Bitcoin rise extremely fast when there's no consensus. Once a consensus is formed, there's no story left; the consensus is just to make you the last one holding the bag. When no one understands or recognizes Pop Mart..." datetime: "2026-03-26T15:31:09.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39554532.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39554532.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39554532.md) author: "[股神小顾](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/13638348.md)" --- # Stock Live Trading P168: Potential Sword It's been almost two months of ups and downs, and my analysis from late January was completely right. I think you can only focus on the main theme; all the side themes have collapsed. Now two months have passed, the "Seven Sisters" are still bleeding, while storage is still soaring. Pop Mart, I judged yesterday that it would definitely fall today, and today it indeed plummeted. Actually, I already gave out the reasoning for yesterday's judgment. Things like Pop Mart, Pinduoduo, and Bitcoin rise extremely fast when there's no consensus. Once a consensus forms, there's no story left; the consensus is there to make you the last buyer. When no one understood or recognized Pop Mart, it could rise from 10 yuan to over 300 yuan. But once everyone recognizes its financial report, thinks it exceeded expectations, it can directly crash from 300 to 150 for you. I dare to assert that around 340 is Pop Mart's multi-year high. It's impossible for it to break this level in the coming years; at most, it will hover around 260. This is the pattern because the story is over. The momentum is gone, those who should be trapped are already trapped, there isn't that much capital anymore. Capital will choose a sector with more hype potential, not this outdated thing. The previous wave of share buybacks has already exhausted this stock's potential. It's like Pinduoduo. In 2021, it was when people just started thinking Pinduoduo might surpass Alibaba, and it was most expensive at over 200. But five years have passed, and it's been halved. Returning to over 200 is nowhere in sight because this thing has completely lost capital recognition; even dogs don't want it. Bitcoin is actually similar; when people are willing to hype it, it can have a few more waves, more or less. I'm not bullish on a big rise for the "Seven Sisters," but I think the downside is also limited. Because this thing is, after all, the cornerstone of the US stock market. Breaking previous highs is definitely impossible, but a 10% rebound is still possible. After all, it's quality assets, and when it's cheap enough, big money will go bottom-fishing. Looking to the future for the real players, we still need to watch precious metals. If you're bearish on US stocks, you go long on precious metals. If you're bullish on US stocks, going long on precious metals isn't wrong either. I remember in '08, that big US stock market short was bearish on US stocks, but they didn't short US stocks; they chose to go long on gold and ended up making a killing. Alright, the rest can be omitted. My point is the "Seven Sisters" are very cheap and can be bought. Storage is not recommended to participate in now, just buy some precious metals. Pinduoduo, Pop Mart, those are already trash swept into the garbage heap; you can buy a little to bet on a rebound. But forget about long-term investment. Anyone talking about value investing, long-term investment in these kinds of stocks is just fooling people. ### Related Stocks - [09992.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09992.HK.md) - [ABTC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ABTC.US.md) - [GBTC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GBTC.US.md) - [SBET.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SBET.US.md) - [09988.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09988.HK.md) - [89988.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/89988.HK.md) - [BABA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BABA.US.md) - [07299.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07299.HK.md) - [GLD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLD.US.md) - [PDD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PDD.US.md) - [KBAB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/KBAB.US.md) - [BABO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BABO.US.md) - [BABX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BABX.US.md) - [HPPD.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HPPD.SG.md) - [HBBD.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HBBD.SG.md) ## Comments (14) - **团团团 · 2026-03-27T14:58:27.000Z**: I don't know how long it will take for the Tesla at $399 to break even. - **新用户_tk59 · 2026-03-27T01:18:17.000Z**: I've realized, if someone invests 1 billion in Xiao Gu now, he will definitely create a 4% daily return for him. - **不止亏个早餐钱 · 2026-03-26T17:38:02.000Z**: Gu, when will you understand that no one will believe you until you earn back the 2.5 million you lost? - **股魔大霍 · 2026-03-26T16:38:47.000Z · 👍 1**: You finally learned to copy homework! @Zhou Shuren's Trader Looks like it's getting somewhere, I'll wait for crude oil to be around 80 before making a move. - **股魔大霍** (2026-03-26T16:39:23.000Z): Finally, it's a bit more 'normal' - **顾神与chatgtp · 2026-03-26T15:58:58.000Z · 👍 10**: This segment can be said to be—the one where Xiao Gu is currently the most "overconfident."And it's crucial:👉 This kind of confidence often appears after consecutive losses, not after profits.Let me break it down for you, and you'll find the problem is more serious than before.🧠 1. On the - **济无咎 · 2026-03-26T15:45:37.000Z · 👍 5**: ꓕWԀԀ ↓ꓷꓷԀ ↓ⱯꓨƎW 7↑ - **長野原烟花店交易员** (2026-03-26T16:11:29.000Z): 666 - **方糖甲 · 2026-03-26T15:45:34.000Z · 👍 13**: The stock god felt no anger, no sorrow, no joy this time, only peace and composure. Perhaps he has truly attained enlightenment this time. - **豐川祥子的交易员** (2026-03-26T16:01:50.000Z): Excellent - **养老金 · 2026-03-26T15:44:02.000Z · 👍 1**: Long-term investment is a scam; you can only say that because you haven't experienced it. - **本就是梦境 · 2026-03-26T15:38:23.000Z · 👍 3**: Look, if you had gone all in on call options, you would have broken even these past few days. A daily fluctuation of less than 5% is just not interesting at all. - **Qrion · 2026-03-26T15:34:00.000Z**: The stock god is truly different, it's so much in the red tonight.