---
title: "Is there still a safe haven play? March 26th review"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39573915.md"
description: "As mentioned in yesterday's review, the Hang Seng Index must close above 25,200 for three consecutive days to reverse the downward scenario. However, it fell below the key level of 25,000 again today. Under these circumstances, as long as it falls below 24,800 again tomorrow or next week, the downward trend will be basically confirmed. In this case, there is a high probability of entering the fourth stage of the downward trend. The risk alarm has sounded. It is the earnings season for Hong Kong stocks recently. However, $POP MART(9992.HK) has plummeted for two consecutive days after its earnings report; although the results were actually better than expected..."
datetime: "2026-03-27T09:16:32.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39573915.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39573915.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39573915.md)
author: "[孫子的末代傳人](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/5724230.md)"
---

> Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39573915.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39573915.md)


# Is there still a safe haven play? March 26th review

As mentioned in yesterday's review, the Hang Seng Index must close above 25,200 for three consecutive days to reverse the downward scenario. However, today it fell below the key level of 25,000 again. In this situation, as long as it falls below 24,800 again tomorrow or next week, the downtrend will basically be confirmed. Under these circumstances, there is a high probability of entering the fourth stage of the downtrend. The risk alarm has sounded.

Recently is the earnings season for Hong Kong stocks, but $POP MART(9992.HK) has plunged for two consecutive days after its earnings report. Although the results were actually better than expected, with net profit increasing by 272% year-on-year. However, the market is temporarily skeptical about whether it can maintain ultra-high-speed growth, which has caused large funds to hesitate and exit. The key support level of 178 below has been broken, and the next key support is at 119. At the same time, $KUAISHOU-W(1024.HK) also plunged after announcing its results, as the market is worried that the huge AI expenses will put significant pressure on the company's cash flow statement. Now, the market is like a startled bird at the mention of AI expenses. Haven't you seen that $TENCENT(700.HK), $Alibaba(BABA.US), and $BABA-W(9988.HK) have caused large funds to flee due to AI expenses? Basically, all three are in a downtrend, and no signs of a bottoming rebound have been seen yet.

$MEITUAN(3690.HK) just announced its results after the market closed, with losses larger than expected. However, due to a 4.1% year-on-year increase in revenue, and the CEO's clear and firm opposition to internal competition during the conference call, actively withdrawing from inefficient price wars. At the same time, it is fully advancing into AI, opening the AI assistant Xiao Tuan to all users, and committed to building an AI-powered local life. At the same time, for its overseas expansion, it is expected to achieve profitability in the first month in the Saudi market by the end of this year. The company's latest guidance is that losses from new businesses in 2026 will not exceed last year. This situation led to a 3% increase in the US trading session, and it has finally temporarily become the first blue-chip stock to perform well after earnings.

$XIAOMI-W(1810.HK) stock price continues to be dull, with no new updates for now; while the previously strong $MINIMAX-W(100.HK) fell below the significant psychological level of 1000 again. In this situation, be careful about the possibility of the stock price peaking and reversing downward. $SMIC(981.HK) has also clearly developed a downtrend, with the next support level at 47.3. $CHINA MOBILE(941.HK) just shared its financial report, but due to a lack of highlights, the downward trend is expected to continue.

The Nasdaq index finally fell. Whether it can close with a bearish candle today is very important for the overall situation. If it closes below 24,800 today, it will be the second time it officially falls below the key level of 24,300. Then there is a high probability of truly entering the fourth stage of the downtrend $FI2CAMNDQ100(7522.HK).

Today, a group of semiconductor stocks finally fell. Among them, as mentioned yesterday, memory chip giants $Micron Tech(MU.US) and $Sandisk(SNDK.US) had the most exaggerated pullbacks. Be very careful. When the two strongest stocks in the previously strongest sector show a significant weakening trend, it further dampens market sentiment. The performance of the US Magnificent Seven is also disappointing. $Tesla(TSLA.US) still fell below the key level of 400 and continued lower even with the positive atmosphere from Space X's listing. $Microsoft(MSFT.US) and $Meta Platforms(META.US) have become the weakest large-cap tech stocks, clearly entering a downtrend phase. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), after months of sideways movement, is also finally preparing to officially decline today.

1.  Positions and Trading  
    Deployed a long position in soybean oil because oil prices remain high, coupled with optimistic agricultural product trends. The deployment was made as the system conditions were met.

Still holding high-yield assets $CAM ASIA HIGHDV(3145.HK). However, according to the data, the companies it invests in are the most diversified and located in different markets across Asia, which is believed to be sufficient to diversify risks. Moreover, since it holds high-dividend companies, this is enough to attract market funds. Its performance is temporarily better than the broader market.

Reflection  
In this turbulent situation, any operation based on news and immediate reaction will basically result in losses. In such times, preserving capital and maintaining stability become the key phrases. Once some already very strong leading stocks turn downward, based on experience, be very careful about the possibility of the trend peaking. Safety is paramount. As the saying goes, "As long as the green hills remain, there will be no shortage of firewood." It is essential to focus on risk management. If the trend develops as expected or triggers the exit point, I will not hesitate to leave the market.

Deployment  
As mentioned above, the sentiment in the Hong Kong stock market has cooled down a bit recently. The attitude of funds has gradually become more conservative, and volatility is also greater than expected. Therefore, it is clearly visible that funds are mainly concentrated in defensive traditional economy stocks. Among them, Chinese financial sector stocks are still performing better than the technology sector for now, which should be related to the high dividend policy.

$PING AN(2318.HK) just announced its results. Based on past records, among the many listed mainland insurance stocks in Hong Kong, Ping An has the highest historical dividend payout ratio, reaching 55%. The company focuses on shareholder returns, so it adopts an operating profit-linked dividend. In other words, as long as operations continue to grow, the dividend payout ratio and the dividends distributed will increase accordingly.

According to financial data, based on the current stock price, the total dividend yield for 2025 reaches 4.81%, maintaining a top-three position in the industry. More importantly, the company has adjusted and increased dividends for 14 consecutive years, possessing a highly stable dividend policy. This dividend yield absolutely tops the market among its competitors. Among traditional economy stocks, the sector that can remain stable against the trend during this period is temporarily represented by mainland banks, but the average dividend yield is only about 5%. If the current market logic is that a high dividend yield provides a safe defensive force, then Ping An's dividend yield can be considered a very important moat. Operating income exceeded 10,000 billion yuan, reaching 11,403.24 billion yuan. The parent company's operating profit reached 1,344.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. This operating profit excludes one-time gains such as investments, making it more convincing for the company's main business.

Finally, the company announced a 2025 interim dividend of 1.75 RMB per share in cash, which is approximately 1.98 HKD. If we calculate based on last year's interim dividend of 1.04 HKD plus 10% growth, the 2026 interim dividend is approximately 1.44 HKD. Adding these two together, the preliminary estimate for the full-year dividend is 3.42 HKD. Based on the current price, the dividend yield is approximately 5.88%. This dividend yield absolutely tops the market. Among traditional economy stocks, the sector that can remain stable against the trend during this period is temporarily represented by mainland banks, but the average dividend yield is only about 5%. If the current market logic is that a high dividend yield provides a safe defensive force, then Ping An's dividend yield can be considered a very important moat. Focus on the company's 2025 annual results conference tomorrow, which will focus on the company's future development guidance and whether there will be accelerated growth.

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