---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39574467.md"
description: "Regarding $AXT(AXTI.US), my first thought wasn't "can this stock still go up," but rather "what exactly does the market think it is?" Because its current price action clearly isn't that of an ordinary small-cap semiconductor stock anymore; it's more like being aggressively pushed by capital as an upstream material concept for AI optical connectivity. AXT produces compound semiconductor substrates, with indium phosphide being the hottest material recently. The core reason this material has caught the market's attention is that as AI data centers become more competitive, the demand for high-speed optical connectivity increases, making the indium phosphide narrative easy to repeatedly bring up. The company's February earnings report also mentioned Q4 2025 revenue of $23.04 million, full-year 2025 revenue of $88.30 million, and simultaneous expansion of indium phosphide capacity, aiming to double related capacity by the end of 2026. So, this stock's recent sharp rise isn't completely illogical. Reuters page shows that AXTI's stock price reached around $67.35 near March 25, indicating that capital has already priced in the expectation of "scarcity of upstream materials for AI optical modules" quite fully. Its most attractive aspect right now is also its most dangerous one. The company's annual revenue scale is actually still not large, and the profit side isn't easy either, with the full-year 2025 gross margin significantly lower than 2024. Additionally, much of its capacity and supply chain links are related to China, making geopolitics and export controls a persistent potential disturbance.So my personal feeling is that AXTI isn't without substance; on the contrary, its current story is too smooth. Those who are genuinely bullish on it must accept that it might continue to be volatile; but those wanting to chase it now must also accept that if it no longer exceeds expectations, the pullback could be severe. Frankly, this kind of stock is suitable for tracking logic and rhythm, not for blindly following the hype."
datetime: "2026-03-27T09:46:42.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39574467.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39574467.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39574467.md)
author: "[Nick](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/26996853.md)"
---

> Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39574467.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39574467.md)


# Regarding $AXT(AXTI.US), my first thought wasn't &…


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- [AXT, Inc. (AXTI.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AXTI.US.md)

## Comments (8)

- **今天吃什么好呢 · 2026-03-27T10:38:56.000Z**: In the past, most people who chased SMCI were attracted by its "greater volatility than large-cap stocks." However, volatility is a double-edged sword; it acts like leverage in favorable conditions and also like leverage in adverse conditions. In the current environment, it no longer seems l
- **摸鱼小能手 · 2026-03-27T10:38:39.000Z**: The trickiest part of this kind of stock is that the fundamentals and the stock price narrative have already decoupled. Looking at orders and revenue, you might think it still has a fighting chance; but what the market is focusing on now is lawsuits, compliance, and export controls. These things are
  - **见山是山⛰️** (2026-03-27T10:39:36.000Z): That hits the nail on the head. Many people are still looking at it with a traditional growth stock mindset.
- **漩涡激流 · 2026-03-27T10:38:18.000Z**: The most troublesome thing for SMCI now is no longer whether its valuation is expensive, but that the market is starting to doubt whether it still deserves to enjoy the trust premium of being a 'core AI asset'. Once this label loosens, even with good performance, there may not be immediate buyers.
- **Trader林 · 2026-03-27T10:07:23.000Z**: The biggest problem now is not whether the theme is right or wrong, but that the market has already priced in the logic of "indium phosphide scarcity + AI optical connectivity" too much in advance. If there is only normal growth, not growth that exceeds expectations, the valuation could easi
- **慢慢富起来 · 2026-03-27T10:07:04.000Z**: The most intoxicating thing about this kind of small-cap stock is that it does have some substance, it's not pure vaporware, but it's not solid enough to ignore volatility either. You can't say it's bad because the logic is sound; you can't say it's stable because its scale and performance can't sup
- **风吹过第七页 · 2026-03-27T10:06:44.000Z**: What I'm more concerned about is whether it will later be compared by the market to larger-scale optical module chain companies. Once everyone realizes it's just an upstream materials segment, not the one that directly benefits the most from the earnings surge, the valuation anchor might shift.
- **我先笑为敬 · 2026-03-27T10:06:04.000Z**: Now this stock is no longer priced solely on fundamentals; sentiment and the shareholding structure have a significant impact.