---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39601048.md"
description: "🚀$Oracle(ORCL.US) Credit Risk Soars to Financial Crisis Levels? What the Market Is Really Worried About Is the Other Side of AI DebtA rarely noticed signal has recently become increasingly apparent.Investors are repricing the risks of large tech companies through the credit market, not the stock market.The most typical example is $Oracle(ORCL.US).Oracle's credit default swap (CDS) spread has risen to about 191 basis points, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. Meanwhile, its CDS volume has expanded about fourfold since mid-2025.In other words, the cost to insure $10 million of Oracle debt against default is now about $191,000.For comparison, this level was about 127 basis points at the peak of the 2022 bear market.This is not a minor fluctuation, but a structural change.More importantly, this change is not an isolated event.As large tech companies issue debt at an accelerating pace to fund AI infrastructure, the credit market is becoming a new battleground for expressing views.In the past, the market was more focused on going long or short on the equity side. But now, investors are starting to hedge, or even directly bet on the future debt risks of these companies through CDS.And $Oracle(ORCL.US) happens to be the most active component in this expression tool.The reason is that it has the most liquid investment-grade CDS, with average weekly trading volume reaching about $830 million. This makes it the preferred instrument for institutions to hedge risk or establish short exposure.At the same time, institutions like JPMorgan have already started offering basket CDS products that include $Alphabet(GOOGL.US), $Amazon(AMZN.US), $Meta Platforms(META.US), $Microsoft(MSFT.US), and $Oracle(ORCL.US).This means one thing:The market has begun to treat "shorting tech company debt" as a strategy that can be systematically executed.The core issue here is not whether Oracle itself will default.It's a deeper structural change:AI investment is being amplified through "debt" on an unprecedented scale.When capital expenditure expands rapidly, the equity market is often still focused on the growth story, but the credit market reflects changes in "funding costs" and "solvency" earlier.So when the CDS spread rises, the message it conveys is not simply "rising risk," but:Investors are starting to demand higher risk compensation.In other words, the market is reassessing the balance between the intensity of investment and returns for these companies in the AI race.This also explains why $Oracle(ORCL.US)'s CDS has become a key observation point.It's not just a company metric; it's more like a thermometer for "AI debt risk."Here, price no longer just reflects the company itself, but the financing structure of the entire industry.So the question becomes more critical:As AI capital expenditure continues to expand,Are you more worried about slowing growth, or the ripple effects caused by rising financing costs?"
datetime: "2026-03-29T14:04:13.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39601048.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39601048.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39601048.md)
author: "[辰逸](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/16318663.md)"
---

> Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39601048.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39601048.md)


# 🚀$Oracle(ORCL.US) Credit Risk Soars to Financial …


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