---
title: "US March PMI hits 11-month low, consumer confidence declines, stagflation risks heat up"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39606828.md"
description: "Important Information: 01) The E Fund Select Strategy Series - E Fund (HK) Select Bond Fund (the “Sub-Fund”) is subject to general market volatility and other inherent factors of the Sub-Fund's assets. Therefore, you bear the risk of being unable to recover the principal invested in the Sub-Fund or potentially losing most or all of your investment. 02) The Sub-Fund primarily invests in a portfolio of investment-grade debt securities denominated in offshore RMB, US dollars, euros, or Hong Kong dollars, aiming to generate a stable income stream beyond capital appreciation for the Sub-Fund, thereby achieving long-term capital growth..."
datetime: "2026-03-30T03:52:04.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39606828.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39606828.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39606828.md)
author: "[易方达香港](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/8787667.md)"
---

> Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39606828.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39606828.md)


# US March PMI hits 11-month low, consumer confidence declines, stagflation risks heat up

_Important Information: 01) E Fund Select Strategy Series - E Fund (Hong Kong) Select Bond Fund (the "Sub-Fund") is subject to general market conditions and other inherent factors of the Sub-Fund's assets. Therefore, you must bear the risk of being unable to recover the principal invested in the Sub-Fund or potentially losing most or all of your investment. 02) The Sub-Fund primarily invests in a portfolio of investment-grade debt securities denominated in offshore Renminbi, US dollars, Euros, or Hong Kong dollars, aiming to generate a stable income stream beyond capital appreciation for the Sub-Fund, thereby achieving long-term capital growth. Potential risks include a) risks related to debt securities (including credit risk, risks associated with credit ratings, credit rating downgrade risk, interest rate risk, valuation risk, volatility and liquidity risk, sovereign/government debt risk, risk of below-investment-grade or unrated debt securities, and risks associated with investing in debt instruments with loss-absorbing features), b) concentration risk, c) emerging market risk, d) foreign exchange risk, e) risks related to sale and repurchase agreements, f) risks related to reverse repurchase agreements, g) Renminbi currency risk and Renminbi-denominated share class risk, h) hedging Renminbi-denominated share class risk, i) convertible bond risk, j) risks related to equity securities, k) Eurozone and European country risk, l) "Dim Sum" bond risk. 03) The Sub-Fund may invest in derivatives for hedging or investment purposes within the limits permitted by the Code. In adverse circumstances, the use of financial derivatives may become ineffective and/or cause the Sub-Fund to suffer significant losses. 04) The Sub-Fund may pay distributions out of the capital of the Sub-Fund. Investors should note that paying distributions out of capital is equivalent to returning or withdrawing part of the investor's original investment amount or any capital gains attributable to that original investment, and such distributions may lead to an immediate reduction in the net asset value of the relevant units. The distribution amount and net asset value of the hedged share class may be adversely affected by the interest rate differential between the currency of the hedged share class and the base currency of the Sub-Fund, leading to an increase in the amount of distributions paid out of capital, and consequently, a greater capital erosion relative to other non-hedged share classes. 05) Unless the intermediary has explained to you, after considering your financial situation, investment experience, and objectives, that this fund is suitable for you, you should not invest in the Sub-Fund. 06) Investors should not make investment decisions based solely on the information provided in this document and should read the details and risk factors contained in the relevant fund offering documents._

Hello, dear investor friends, what important changes occurred in the market last week? Let's take a look together:

Last week, the US core focus was on March PMI and consumer confidence data. Slowing economic growth combined with rising inflation heightened market concerns about stagflation risks. **The preliminary March S&P Global Composite PMI fell to 51.4, hitting an 11-month low, with diverging trends in manufacturing and services:** the Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4 (expanding for the eighth consecutive month), while the Services PMI fell to 51.1 (an 11-month low). Price pressures rebounded significantly, with input cost increases being the largest in ten months and selling prices hitting a new high since August 2022. Supply chain tensions re-emerged, mainly influenced by soaring energy prices driven by Middle East conflicts. **Employment saw its first decline in over a year, with companies adopting a more cautious hiring stance.** Additionally, the final March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 53.3. Weighed down by rising oil prices and stock market volatility, consumer expectations for the short-term economic outlook worsened, with one-year inflation expectations climbing to 3.8%, **further intensifying stagflation concerns and making it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to balance between cutting interest rates and controlling inflation.**

In China, industrial enterprise profits for January-February and the overall real estate market showed positive recovery momentum. Regarding industrial enterprises, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year-on-year in January-February, **with the growth rate accelerating significantly. Profits in all three major categories achieved growth, with manufacturing and mining showing notable improvement in growth rates;** operating income grew simultaneously, unit costs decreased year-on-year (for the first time since 2022), profit margins improved, and most industries saw profit recovery. High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing made outstanding contributions, with new growth drivers providing significant support, but attention must be paid to cost pressures brought by rising crude oil prices in March. **Regarding real estate, it has been one full month since purchase restrictions were relaxed within Shanghai's outer ring. Secondary home transactions continue to climb, with March transactions expected to reach a new high since April 2021.** Secondary home transactions in Beijing and Shenzhen also show signs of warming up, but listing prices for secondary homes across all city tiers continue to bottom out. Nationally, secondary home weekly transactions have increased week-on-week for four consecutive weeks, and new home transactions have significantly improved, driven by second- and third-tier cities, indicating a mild warming trend in the market.

In bond market performance, **global bond markets overall continued to decline over the past week,** with the Global Aggregate Index down 0.49%, the US Aggregate Index down 0.12%, US investment-grade corporate bonds down 0.23%, and US high-yield corporate bonds down 0.47%. **The Emerging Markets USD Bond Aggregate Index fell 0.32%, and the China USD Credit Bond Index fell 0.14%. Regarding interest rates, US Treasury yields generally rose,** with the 2-year US Treasury yield up 1bp to 3.91% and the 10-year US Treasury yield up 5bp to 4.43%.

The net asset value of the E Fund (Hong Kong) Select Bond Fund A Class Accumulating USD Share is 12.59\*. Regarding the recent overall bond market situation, **we will continue to deploy targets with high-quality credit attributes under the condition of low yield spreads, striving to provide more stable returns than the market.**

Key economic data releases to focus on this week:

Tuesday: China will release March official PMI data;

Wednesday: The US will release March ISM Manufacturing Index data;

Thursday: The US will release February durable goods orders data;

Friday: The US will release March non-farm payrolls and related data.

_\* Data sourced from E Fund Hong Kong's official website, as of 2026/3/30._

_Disclaimer: The issuer of this report is E Fund Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited. This report does not constitute an invitation or recommendation to invest in fund units. Subscription forms for fund units must be accompanied by the fund prospectus. Investments involve risks; fund prices may rise or fall, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Before investing, investors should carefully read the investment risks related to the fund contained in the fund prospectus (including the "Risk Factors" section). This report may only be distributed within certain jurisdictions. In jurisdictions where it is unlawful to distribute such information or make any invitation or recommendation, or to any person to whom such distribution or invitation or recommendation would be unlawful, this report does not constitute such distribution, invitation, or recommendation. This document is exempt from pre-vetting and authorization by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and has not been reviewed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Authorization by the Securities and Futures Commission does not imply endorsement or recommendation of the scheme, nor does it guarantee the commercial merits or performance of the scheme, nor does it mean the scheme is suitable for all investors, or endorse the scheme as suitable for any individual investor or any class of investor. Copyright©2026. E Fund Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited._

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