---
title: "The Fed's dot plot"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39637955.md"
description: "After each FOMC meeting, you often see a sentence: "The market is digesting the latest dot plot." So what exactly is this famous dot plot? Encyclopedia Jun is here to clarify for friends who are not yet clear 👇 What is the Fed's dot plot? The dot plot, whose full name is the Summary of Economic Projections for the federal funds rate by Federal Open Market Committee participants, essentially reflects the personal forecasts of Fed officials for future interest rates. The Fed holds a total of 8 FOMC meetings each year, but the dot plot is only released after the meetings held in March, June, September, and December..."
datetime: "2026-03-31T09:54:51.000Z"
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  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39637955.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39637955.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39637955.md)
author: "[百科君](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/26848909.md)"
---

# The Fed's dot plot

After each FOMC meeting, you often see a phrase: "The market is digesting the latest dot plot." So what exactly is this famous dot plot? Here, Baike Jun explains it clearly for those who are not yet familiar 👇

## What is the Fed's Dot Plot?

The Dot Plot, officially known as the Summary of Economic Projections, is essentially a chart showing the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members' individual forecasts for the future federal funds rate. The Fed holds a total of 8 FOMC meetings each year, but the dot plot is only released after the meetings in March, June, September, and December. As shown in the chart, the horizontal axis represents the year, and the vertical axis represents the interest rate; each dot here represents an official's forecast for a specific year. These dots are anonymous, and no one knows which official each corresponds to.

## Origin of the Dot Plot

The Fed's interest rate meetings are attended by 7 members of the Board of Governors and 12 presidents from regional Federal Reserve Banks, totaling 19 people. However, only 12 members vote each time. The 7 Board of Governors members plus the President of the New York Fed have permanent voting rights, while the other 11 regional Fed presidents rotate for the remaining 4 voting rights each year. In 2012, to enhance decision-making transparency, the Fed proposed that all 19 members express their forecasts for the future path of interest rates based on their own views. This is the origin of the dot plot.

## How to Read the Dot Plot

1️⃣ Locate the Median: The median in the dot plot is considered the mainstream policy expectation of the Fed. By comparing the current interest rate with the median forecast, we can roughly estimate the number of rate hikes or cuts expected by the market. Connecting the median forecast points for each year forms the "expected interest rate path" interpreted by the market. If the median points shift upward overall, it suggests possible rate hikes; if they shift downward, it suggests possible rate cuts.

2️⃣ Observe the Dispersion: If the dots for a particular year are relatively concentrated, it indicates a high degree of consensus within the Fed, and the policy path is relatively clear. However, if the dots are very scattered, it suggests significant internal disagreement, and the uncertainty surrounding the policy path often increases market volatility.

3️⃣ Compare Historical Changes: Compare the dot plot with the previous one. If the overall plot shifts noticeably upward, it means officials have become more hawkish (leaning towards rate hikes or later cuts). If it shifts downward, it means they have become more dovish (leaning towards rate cuts).

## Comments (1)

- **ChoiJay · 2026-04-12T13:51:47.000Z**: Excellent! Clear and understood.