--- title: "Want to contain the war first, but not planning to 'fix' the Strait of Hormuz for the market." type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39660201.md" description: "Donald Trump has indicated to his aides that he is willing to end military action against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed; he also posted on social media that day suggesting that other countries should get their own oil, and the US would no longer help. The signal the market heard is clear: military escalation can be paused, but reopening the strait may not be America's top priority. The implications of this for oil prices are far greater than just the word "ceasefire." Because the Strait of Hormuz is not an ordinary shipping lane, but the choke point for global energy pricing. The average oil flow transported through the Strait of Hormuz in the first half of 2025 was about 20.9 million barrels per day..." datetime: "2026-04-01T02:54:34.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39660201.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39660201.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39660201.md) author: "[多知再行最后合一](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/25247736.md)" --- # Want to contain the war first, but not planning to 'fix' the Strait of Hormuz for the market. Donald Trump has indicated to his aides that he is willing to end military action against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed; he also posted on social media that day, hinting that other countries should secure their own oil, and the US would no longer help. The signal the market heard is clear: **military escalation can be paused, but reopening the Strait may not be a top US priority.** The significance of this for oil prices is far greater than the two words "ceasefire." Because the Strait of Hormuz is not an ordinary shipping lane; it is the choke point for global energy pricing. In the first half of 2025, the average oil flow transported through the Strait of Hormuz was about **20.9 million barrels per day**, accounting for roughly **20%** of global oil and petroleum product consumption. In other words, Trump can say the fighting has stopped, but as long as the Strait does not truly resume traffic, the global crude oil market cannot immediately return to its pre-war rhythm. More realistically, **the Strait's actual traffic volume has not yet shown the significant improvement the market imagined.** The 7-day average transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz is only **1.8 million barrels per day**, roughly on par with Iran's crude oil exports, indicating a clear gap between official statements and verifiable facts. The "goodwill gift" from Iran mentioned by Trump has not changed the pattern of crude oil and refined product flows from west to east through the Strait. That is to say, the market is now facing not a reopened Strait, but a Strait still half-blocked. This is also why oil prices now seem to be trading on the **long-term persistence of risk premiums**, rather than a simple one-time war shock. The average Brent crude price forecast for 2026 has been raised to **$82.85 per barrel**, a significant increase from **$63.85 per barrel** in February; if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Brent could even surge towards **$190 per barrel**. If the disruption drags on, oil prices could return to **$100** by late April and reach **$110** by late May, while a prolonged blockade would mean the global supply gap would be very difficult to fill. In other words, the market is now trading not on whether prices will rise, but on how high they will go and for how long. Don't forget, the global energy market has already deployed very strong buffer tools. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has coordinated the release of **4 million barrels worth** of strategic reserves, a record-breaking scale. This kind of release is more like a tourniquet, not a cure. The problem is, as long as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is not restored, such reserves can only delay the tension, not fundamentally solve the supply bottleneck. Therefore, Trump's hands-off approach essentially shifts the problem from the US personally reopening the Strait to pushing the reopening task to allies and the diplomatic level after the US achieves its desired strategic objectives. France has already begun rallying about 35 countries to discuss future reopening tasks, and Trump had previously complained that some allies were not proactive in escort and operations. This reality is crucial: **Reopening the Strait is not something that can be accomplished with a political statement; it requires mine clearance, escort, diplomatic coordination, energy facility repair, and tacit cooperation from all parties in the region.** In this chain, as long as one link gets stuck, the pressure on oil prices will not easily disappear. I am more inclined to understand the current situation as the superposition of two layers of market logic: the first layer is that **war risk premiums may no longer continue to rise linearly**, because Trump clearly wants to scale back military operations as soon as possible; the second layer, however, is that **the practical obstacles to Strait traffic will keep the oil price center at a high level for longer**, because transit volumes have not recovered, and IEA reserves can only provide a buffer. In other words, oil prices may not continue to skyrocket in a straight line in the short term, but it's also difficult for them to quickly return to normal just because someone says the war is over. What truly determines the direction of oil prices is not what the White House says, but whether ships can actually pass normally through the Strait of Hormuz. To put the conclusion more bluntly: **Trump's hands-off approach to the Strait of Hormuz means the worst sentiment in the crude oil market may cool slightly, but the structural risk of high oil prices has not been lifted.** As long as the Strait is not truly reopened, oil prices will not easily return to pre-conflict levels; if the reopening drags on longer, triple-digit oil prices are not a scary slogan, but a scenario the market must seriously price in. $Exxon Mobil(XOM.US) $TotalEnergies SE(TTE.US) $Imperial Oil(IMO.US) ### Related Stocks - [XOM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XOM.US.md) - [IMO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IMO.US.md) - [TTE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TTE.US.md)