--- title: "The U.S. stock market that turned on a dime: Trump said the war would end in 2-3 weeks, and the market immediately rallied to show you." type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39661321.md" description: "The main theme of major asset classes last night was risk-on: U.S. stocks rebounded sharply, marking one of the more substantial single-day recoveries in nearly a year. The S&P 500 rose 2.91%, the Nasdaq rose 3.83%, and the Dow Jones rose 2.49%, all representing significant single-day gains since last year. Semiconductors were even more dramatic: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) surged +6.24% in a single day, completely reversing the previous day's decline. The question is: does this rebound signal the beginning of an easing situation, or is it just a technical move driven by short covering? I tend to treat it as the latter for now, for a simple reason—the trigger for this rise seems to be more about the speech..." datetime: "2026-04-01T03:54:35.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39661321.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39661321.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39661321.md) author: "[敏仔拆研报](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/25149505.md)" --- # The U.S. stock market that turned on a dime: Trump said the war would end in 2-3 weeks, and the market immediately rallied to show you. The main theme for major asset classes last night was risk-on: U.S. stocks staged a significant rebound, marking one of the more substantial single-day recoveries in nearly a year. The S&P 500 rose **2.91%**, the Nasdaq gained **3.83%**, and the Dow Jones increased **2.49%**, all representing some of the larger single-day gains since last year. Semiconductors were even more dramatic: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) surged **+6.24%** in a single day, completely reversing the previous day's decline. The question is: Is this rebound the starting point of a de-escalation, or just a technical move driven by short covering? I lean towards treating it as the latter for now, for a simple reason—the trigger for this rally was more about words than facts. ### **1) The reason for the rebound: Both sides are signaling an end, but verifiable substance is limited** The main pieces of information the market digested last night were two: 1. **On the U.S. side**: Trump stated that the U.S. could end its military action against Iran in **2 to 3 weeks**, with the goal of degrading Iran's capabilities and preventing it from obtaining nuclear weapons, withdrawing once the objectives are met. 2. **On the Iranian side**: The public stance is a willingness to end the war, but only if its basic conditions are met (this type of statement is more of a negotiation posture, with concrete terms still unknown). The market initially priced this in as a potential off-ramp. On the price level: Oil prices retreated on de-escalation expectations (Brent once fell back to around **$103.97**), and interest rates eased slightly (the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell back to about **4.31%**), giving the stock market some breathing room. However, I won't equate words with an inflection point. Because the market itself is scoring this in a more realistic way: on the prediction market Polymarket, a contract showing the probability of **U.S. troops entering Iranian land before April 30** was traded up to **72%**. It may not represent the true probability, but it illustrates one point: capital does not believe the risk is over; it's more about pricing in a temporary de-escalation followed by reassessment. ### **2) Why I'm not chasing: This looks more like a technical rebound, not the restart of a trend** The strength of last night's rally indeed exceeded what could be explained by just a couple of statements. Especially for a high-beta sector like SOX to surge 6% in a day, it's easy for technical factors like **short covering and passive portfolio rebalancing** to be involved (simply put: the sharper the fall and the more bearish the positioning, the sharper the rally). Here I'll use a less formal but quite practical judgment: \*\* Trump's time unit isn't days, it's more like news cycles. \*\* He says 2-3 weeks to end, the market can rally first; but as long as oil prices rise again or negotiation rhetoric flip-flops, risk appetite can retract just as quickly. Another long-term risk is emerging: news is spreading about domestic efforts in Iran to legalize tolls for passage through the Strait of Hormuz (even if enforcement varies, any increase in shipping friction could raise the floor for global commodity and freight costs). Therefore, my characterization of this rebound is: **It's tradable, but not enough to make me switch my portfolio from a defensive posture back to an offensive one.** ### **3) My actions: Not betting on the narrative, just watching oil prices and positioning structure** My actions over the past two days have been very boring, but boring is often more useful in this kind of market: 1. **Equity positions**: Not chasing in to add leverage just because of a one-day surge. The faster the rebound, the more it looks technical; unless oil prices/interest rates give several consecutive days of confirmation, I'd rather treat it as a volatility opportunity, not a trend signal. 2. **Order of focus**: Oil first, stocks second. As long as oil prices fluctuate within a high range, inflation expectations will fluctuate, the interest rate anchor will fluctuate, and it will be hard for the stock market to move smoothly. 3. **Cash/defense**: I consider holding ammunition as part of the strategy. Buffett recently expressed a similar attitude in a CNBC interview: even after the market adjustment, he still doesn't see much to buy, and Berkshire continues to hold a large amount of cash and short-term bonds. In summary: I acknowledge the trading value of last night's move, but I'm discounting its trend value for now. I'll only add back offensive exposure when at least one more verifiable change appears—for example, a trend decline in oil prices, or the emergence of a substantive framework for negotiations confirmed by a third party. This is merely my personal investment perspective, for discussion and reference only, and does not constitute any investment advice or operational basis.$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US) ### Related Stocks - [BRK.B.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BRK.B.US.md) - [SPY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPY.US.md) - [.IXIC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [.DJI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [DOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DOG.US.md) - [07777.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07777.HK.md) - [BRK.A.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BRK.A.US.md)