--- title: "Amidst tariff and oil price fluctuations, JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs diverge in their assessments of the US inflation path." type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39716433.md" description: "Recently, discussions in the US macro market around oil price volatility and tariff policies have noticeably intensified. On one side, JPMorgan believes that this round of shocks is more of a phased, short-term disturbance. As energy supply recovers, tariff impacts ease, and housing costs decline, inflationary pressures are expected to be gradually absorbed. On the other side, Goldman Sachs warns that the costs brought by tariffs will not simply vanish; they will ultimately be passed on to consumers through the price system, creating persistent headwinds for inflation's decline. The divergence between the two institutions essentially lies not in "how large the immediate fluctuations are," but in "how strong inflation stickiness truly is"..." datetime: "2026-04-03T05:52:46.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39716433.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39716433.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39716433.md) author: "[Skylar 瞰全球](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/25148339.md)" --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39716433.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39716433.md) # Amidst tariff and oil price fluctuations, JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs diverge in their assessments of the US inflation path. Recently, discussions around oil price volatility and tariff policies have noticeably heated up in the US macro market. On one side, JP Morgan believes that this round of shocks is more of a temporary, short-term disturbance. As energy supply recovers, the impact of tariffs eases, and housing costs decline, inflationary pressures are expected to be gradually absorbed. On the other side, Goldman Sachs warns that the costs brought by tariffs won't simply disappear; they will ultimately be passed on to consumers through the price system, creating persistent headwinds for disinflation. **The divergence between the two institutions essentially lies not in "how large the immediate volatility is," but in "how strong inflation stickiness truly is."** # I. The Core Variables the Market Is Focusing On Now Current market concerns are mainly concentrated in two areas: oil price volatility and tariff policies. Regarding oil prices, geopolitical uncertainties can easily trigger periodic increases in energy prices, thereby disturbing inflation expectations. Regarding tariffs, while they appear to be trade policy adjustments on the surface, their ultimate impact often transmits to corporate costs, end-user pricing, and household consumption, subsequently affecting the overall inflation path. **Therefore, what the market truly cares about is not how much oil prices rise on a given day, but whether these factors will persistently and repeatedly appear, forming longer-term price pressures.** # II. JP Morgan's View: Leaning More Towards Short-Term Disturbance JP Morgan's core view is relatively optimistic, believing that the current oil market turmoil and tariff-related concerns are more of temporary adverse factors rather than structural shocks sufficient to alter the US economy's medium-to-long-term trend. From their logic, volatility in the energy market will eventually ease as supply recovers. In other words, oil prices can be pushed up in the short term by geopolitical risks, but as long as the supply side returns to normal, there is room for prices to fall. Regarding inflation, JP Morgan expects the year-on-year CPI increase may rise to the range of 3.5% to nearly 4% in June, but will decline significantly thereafter. With falling oil prices, weakening tariff impacts, and declining housing costs, inflation is expected to return near the Fed's 2% target by year-end, and could even fall further below that level in 2027. **The core premise of this view is: the current shocks are digestible, and the US economy still possesses sufficient resilience.** # III. Goldman Sachs' View: Tariff Costs Will Persistently Transmit Compared to JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs' stance is noticeably more cautious. The analysis focus of Goldman Sachs' chief economist is not on short-term volatility, but on the long-term costs of tariff policies. Their research suggests the burden brought by tariffs is not a brief, temporary pain, but will gradually transmit to end consumers through the supply chain and price system. More notably, Goldman Sachs calculations show that as tariff policies advance further, the proportion of costs borne by US consumers could rise from around 20% initially to over 60%. This means the impact of tariffs won't stop at corporate profit and loss statements; it will continue to spread to the consumer side, thereby raising the core PCE price index and slowing the pace of disinflation. **From this perspective, what Goldman Sachs worries about is not a temporary rebound in inflation, but the re-elevation of the inflation floor.** # IV. The Essence of the Divergence: Is Inflation a "Temporary Uptick" or "Long-Term Sticky"? If we distill the views of both sides to their core, the divergence is actually very clear. JP Morgan leans more towards the view that the shocks from oil prices and tariffs will gradually ease, and inflation is just a temporary surge that will still smoothly decline later. Goldman Sachs believes that such policies and energy shocks have greater persistence, and the costs will ultimately be absorbed by consumers, making the process of inflation returning to 2% potentially slower than the market imagines. **In other words, the real debate is not whether inflation will rise, but whether it will linger near high levels for an extended period.** And this is precisely the key variable affecting subsequent monetary policy expectations. # V. The Market May Be Underestimating the Lag in Policy Transmission It's important to note that the economic impact of tariffs and oil prices typically doesn't fully manifest immediately; there is a noticeable lag effect. In the short term, the market might only see sentiment fluctuations. But over time, factors like corporate inventory replenishment, cost repricing, and end-user price increases will gradually transmit into inflation data. This is also why, often, the true impact of policy shocks isn't priced in immediately, but rather manifests gradually over the following months. Goldman Sachs' concern is based on this point: **if cost transmission continues to occur, the market's current judgment on the pace of disinflation and interest rate cuts might be overly optimistic.** # VI. Implications for Investment From an investment perspective, the significance of this divergence isn't just a macroeconomic discussion; it's more about asset pricing logic. If JP Morgan's view is closer to reality, then the current disturbances are more just short-term noise. Subsequent inflationary pressures will gradually ease, and risk assets will still have room for recovery. But if Goldman Sachs' view is closer to reality, then inflation stickiness might be stronger than expected, the Fed might maintain higher interest rates for longer, and market valuations will continue to face pressure. **Therefore, a more prudent approach at this stage is to be patient with short-term volatility, but remain cautious about the medium-term inflation path.** # Conclusion Overall, the divergence between JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs reflects Wall Street's different emphases in judging the US inflation path: one places more weight on economic resilience and periodic recovery, the other emphasizes policy costs and inflation stickiness. **If this is only short-term pain, the market still has recovery opportunities; if it persistently transmits into long-term pressure, the high-interest-rate environment might unfortunately persist for even longer.** In investing, what's truly important often isn't whether risks appear, but how long they last. $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US) $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) ### Related Stocks - [ProShares Short Dow30 (DOG.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DOG.US.md) - [Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [NASDAQ Composite Index (.IXIC.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [SPDR® S&P 500® ETF (SPY.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPY.US.md)