---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39717501.md"
description: "The non-farm payroll data is coming at 8:30 PM tonight. The market generally expects an addition of 60,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.4%. From my personal trading logic, there's no need to overly obsess about the absolute value of the data. Research from the St. Louis Fed is very clear: the monthly employment breakeven point needed to maintain U.S. unemployment rate stability has now dropped to 15,000 people. Whether the data is loose or tight depends more on this marginal change than on the absolute value. The most crucial point is that the U.S. stock market will be closed when this data is released. All volatility will accumulate and be released at Monday's opening. Coupled with the uncertainty of the weekend's geopolitical situation, the risk of betting on the data is infinitely amplified. As I always say, I never bet on a single data point. For us ordinary investors, holding our positions and managing risk is always more important than betting on short-term price movements."
datetime: "2026-04-03T09:10:15.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39717501.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39717501.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39717501.md)
author: "[潘驴邓晓闲缺一](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/27015735.md)"
---

> Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39717501.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39717501.md)


# The non-farm payroll data is coming at 8:30 PM ton…