---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39718059.md"
description: "$POP MART(09992.HK) The return that can be obtained by buying Pop Mart at the current price is 7.6%. The company is currently in an expansion phase with capital expenditure needs, and its sustainable cash distribution ratio cannot be determined. We can only simplify the process again: assume that the company's retained earnings neither create nor destroy value, and retained earnings are equivalent to cash dividends. From a qualitative perspective, unless Pop Mart deviates from its main business in the future to engage in a large number of unrelated investments, its retained earnings should actually be able to create significant value. Our assumption here should be conservative.Next, we need to consider the natural growth rate that Pop Mart can maintain over a long future cycle. The company is actually still in a period of rapid change. Setting a long-term natural growth rate is not much different from a 'gut feeling' in terms of accuracy. However, we must be clear in our minds that no matter how promising a company's prospects are, it cannot maintain high growth rates indefinitely. Otherwise, the entire planet would eventually be bought out by that company. Since we previously equated retained earnings with cash dividends, we should not consider the growth brought about by the reinvestment of retained earnings again when considering the long-term natural growth rate. Pop Mart's products are different from ordinary goods; they lack 'practicality' and lean more towards 'emotional consumption'. Its customer base is relatively 'affluent'. Its long-term natural growth rate should be slightly higher than the overall economic growth rate. When analyzing Haidilao, we set the natural growth rate at 5%; Pop Mart might reach 6%.Without considering the decline of economic moats, the return we can obtain from buying Pop Mart now is approximately 13.6%.Pop Mart is a relatively young company. It started in 2010 from a trendy grocery store in Beijing and created a 'miracle' in 15 years. My current impression is that of a 'vibrant young person' with too many territories yet to be explored, and no signs of weakness are seen for now. Assuming the half-life of the company's economic moat is 30 years, the average annual decline is 2.4%. Compared to the total return of 13.6%, this is a significant proportion of decline. The return after considering the decay of the economic moat is 11.2%. from px"
datetime: "2026-04-03T10:22:12.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39718059.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39718059.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39718059.md)
author: "[离岸股息穿透回报率](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/19098983.md)"
---

# $POP MART(09992.HK) The return that can be obtaine…


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