---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39719888.md"
description: "Before Trump's speech, the general expectation was "ceasefire" and "peace talks." When expectations are aligned, there is a possibility of a reverse harvest. Next time, you can refer to the relevant predictions on Polymarket, which involve real money and are based on decentralized blockchain technology. Many senior U.S. officials and insiders participate, so it's definitely more timely than our free news and information apps. Before Trump's speech, I observed the betting volume for "U.S.-Iran ceasefire" before April 7th and April 15th, with an increase of basically less than 1%. If the probability is not above 50%, it basically won't happen. Additionally, I found that if an uncertain event has a probability above 80% 2-3 months in advance, it is highly likely to trigger a reverse harvest in the following month. If the date is imminent, it generally won't."
datetime: "2026-04-03T22:10:47.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39719888.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39719888.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39719888.md)
author: "[新用戶_dLcvRX](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/22978229.md)"
---

> Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39719888.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39719888.md)


# Before Trump's speech, the general expectation was…