---
title: "UnitedHealth Note 7: How to understand the CMS rate 2.48% benchmark increase and 4.98% equivalent increase"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39740297.md"
description: "I. Review Conclusion After verifying the final version of the CY2027 Medicare Advantage rate announcement released by CMS (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services) on April 6, 2026, the statement regarding "a benchmark increase of 2.48%, with an equivalent increase of 4.98% after considering risk score trends" is 100% accurate, precise, and can be directly used for investment research analysis and financial modeling..."
datetime: "2026-04-07T10:10:35.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39740297.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39740297.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39740297.md)
author: "[小马哥的交易员](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/15302149.md)"
---

# UnitedHealth Note 7: How to understand the CMS rate 2.48% benchmark increase and 4.98% equivalent increase

I. Review Conclusion

After verifying the final CY2027 Medicare Advantage Rate Announcement released by CMS (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services) on April 6, 2026, the statement regarding "a 2.48% benchmark increase, with an equivalent increase of 4.98% after accounting for the risk score trend" is 100% accurate, precise, and can be directly used for investment research analysis and financial modeling.  
II. Official Data Source (Traceable)

• Releasing Agency: CMS (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services)

• Announcement Title: 2027 Medicare Advantage and Part D Rate Announcement

• Document Type: Fact Sheet (Official Final Version)

• Release Date: April 6, 2026 (US Time)

• Original Quote:  
The final policies... are projected to result in an increase of 2.48%...  
When accounting for estimated risk score trend... this amounts to a 4.98% increase.  
• Summary Link/Searchable Information:

◦ The document can be found on the CMS official website cms.gov by searching for the keyword: "CY2027 MA Rate Announcement Fact Sheet"

◦ Citations by Authoritative Chinese Media: GuruFocus, Sina Finance, Becker's Hospital Review, Fierce Healthcare, all consistently confirm the three data points: 2.48% / $13B / 4.98%  
III. Key Figures Verification Item by Item

1.  Benchmark Increase

• Official Figure: +2.48%

• Corresponding Increment: Over $13 billion (over $13B)

• Purpose: The benchmark for nominal payment growth, providing core revenue support for MA plans.

1.  Effective Increase After Risk Adjustment

• Official Definition:  
After considering factors such as demographic changes, coding practice trends, and the natural rise in risk scores.

• Official Figure: 4.98%

• Conclusion: This is the effective payment growth that insurance companies actually receive, which has been finally confirmed by the CMS actuarial model.

1.  Draft vs. Final Version Comparison (Validation Logic)

• January Draft: Benchmark increase 0.09% → Risk-adjusted 4.97%

• April Final: Benchmark increase 2.48% → Risk-adjusted 4.98%

→ The final data is consistent, the trend is reversed, and the figures are precise.  
IV. Actuarial Logic Verification for 4.98% (Official Formula)

The official CMS statement uses the compound growth rate formula:

Effective Increase = (1 + Benchmark Increase) × (1 + Risk Score Trend Increase) − 1

According to CMS actuarial assumptions:

• Benchmark Increase: +2.48%

• Risk Score Trend Increase: ≈+2.45%

Substitute into calculation:

1.0248 × 1.0245 − 1 = 0.049908 ≈ 4.98%

→ The conclusion is completely consistent with the official text; 4.98% is the actuarial verification result.  
V. Third-Party Media Consensus Confirmation

To further ensure reliability, the following media outlets all cited the same set of official data:

• Becker's Hospital Review (4/6/2026):  
...amounts to a 4.98% payment increase.  
• Fierce Healthcare / Modern Healthcare / AHA:  
All cited: 2.48% / $13B / 4.98%

• Authoritative Chinese Sources: GuruFocus, Sina Finance  
After accounting for demographic changes and coding practices, the actual increase is 4.98%.  
→ Consensus confirmation across the entire industry, no controversy.  
VI. Final Summary Sentence for Report Use (Can be directly copied)

After reviewing the final CMS 2027 MA Rate Announcement, the benchmark payment increase is 2.48%. After considering the risk score trend brought by demographic changes and coding practices, the equivalent effective growth is 4.98%. This figure is completely consistent with the official actuarial model and can be confidently used for UNH profit forecasts, EPS calculations, and stock valuation models.

$Unitedhealth(UNH.US)

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