--- title: "The U.S. stock market was still hesitant last night, but today it suddenly launched a major counterattack: why am I still not chasing it yet?" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39765295.md" description: "Last night's K-line in the U.S. stock market actually speaks volumes about the current market state: it's not that it doesn't want to rise, but rather it dares not take the lead. The Dow fell 0.18% last night, the S&P 500 only rose 0.08%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.10%. It clearly fell deeper during the session, only managing to pull back in the final minutes. Looking at the indices, it seems okay, but the structure isn't particularly solid. The number of declining stocks on the Nasdaq still outnumbered the gainers, and trading volume was also below the recent 20-day average. To put it bluntly, this isn't the kind of session where the bulls have regained control of the rhythm; it's more like everyone is waiting for the last shoe to drop. 1. What last night's U.S. stocks really revealed wasn't strength..." datetime: "2026-04-08T07:07:00.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39765295.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39765295.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39765295.md) author: "[James小韭日记](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/25149055.md)" --- # The U.S. stock market was still hesitant last night, but today it suddenly launched a major counterattack: why am I still not chasing it yet? **Last night's K-line in U.S. stocks actually speaks volumes about the market's current state: it's not that it doesn't want to rise, but rather that it dares not be the first to make a move.** The Dow fell **0.18%** last night, the S&P 500 only rose **0.08%**, and the Nasdaq gained **0.10%**. The market had clearly fallen much deeper intraday, only managing to pull back in the final hour. Looking at the indices, it seems okay, but the structure isn't particularly solid. The number of declining stocks on the Nasdaq still outnumbered the advancers, and trading volume was below the recent 20-day average. To put it bluntly, this isn't the kind of session where the bulls have regained control of the rhythm; it's more like everyone is waiting for the last shoe to drop. ### **1\. What last night's U.S. stocks truly revealed wasn't strength, but "hold your fire for now."** My own first reaction to last night's price action wasn't optimism, but a sense that the market's nerves are already stretched taut. The indices were first pressured down due to issues surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the Iran deadline; in the final hour, they recovered the losses on talk of diplomatic mediation. In other words, what U.S. stocks were trading on last night wasn't corporate fundamentals, nor the Fed, but the **geopolitical news headlines themselves**. The most typical characteristic of this kind of market is that any little bit of news can swing the indices back and forth, but it's hard to take it as a real directional shift. For an ordinary retail investor like me, this environment is precisely when I should remind myself: **Don't automatically assume a bottom has been reached just because of the late-session pullback.** ### **2\. The real market explosion today wasn't because U.S. stocks were strong last night, but because oil prices were suddenly pushed down.** What really flipped market sentiment was the ceasefire news during the Asian session today. The U.S. and Iran suddenly reached a **two-week ceasefire** arrangement. The market's first reaction wasn't in stocks, but in oil prices. Brent and WTI crude fell by about **13% to 15%** at one point, directly pulling out of the "high oil prices suppress everything" state of the past few days. Japanese stocks surged about **5%** today, South Korean stocks were pulled up to **6%** at one point, and U.S. stock futures also rose sharply. This reaction is normal because the core conflict weighing on global risk assets wasn't interest rates, but oil prices and transportation risks. Now that oil prices have eased, capital will naturally rush in for some sentiment repair first. ### **3\. My conclusion is still cautious: this bounce can certainly happen, but I won't treat it as a reversal yet.** If I had to make a judgment now, I'd still prefer to understand this move as a **release of pressure after high tension**, not a confirmed trend reversal. The reason is simple. This ceasefire indeed gives the market a big breathing room, but it's only for two weeks itself, and the truly difficult parts—control of the Strait of Hormuz, the nuclear issue, shipping and insurance recovery—are still to be negotiated. More critically, even if the Strait reopens, the real supply chain pressure built up over the past few weeks won't disappear immediately. The Asian physical oil market will still be affected for months. Saudi Arabia's May official selling price to Asia has even been set near historical highs. In other words, financial markets can bounce first due to improved sentiment, but the repair speed in the real world certainly isn't as fast as the K-line. So if you ask me if today's big rebound is worth getting excited about, I'd say: **It's certainly worth taking a breather, but it's not yet time to chase with confidence.** Because the biggest characteristic of the market right now is that bad news comes fast, and reversal news also comes fast, making the rhythm particularly easy to get swept up in. The previous drop was too severe, so it's normal for indices and tech stocks to repair a bit when ceasefire-level news emerges today. But to say the bottom has been confirmed, I think we need to wait longer. At least wait a few more days to see if negotiations progress, if oil prices can stabilize and retreat, and if the market shifts from "snatching a rebound" to "daring to add positions consistently." Before these signals become clearer, my own thinking remains that old adage: **Watch more, move less, and don't let a single big bullish candlestick fill you with emotion again.** **This article is only my personal stock trading thoughts and does not constitute investment advice.**$S&P 500(.SPX.US) $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US) $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) ### Related Stocks - [QQQE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQE.US.md) - [.IXIC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [SQQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SQQQ.US.md) - [PSQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PSQ.US.md) - [QQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQ.US.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [.DJI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [TQQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TQQQ.US.md) - [DOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DOG.US.md) - [DDM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DDM.US.md) - [DIA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DIA.US.md) - [SDOW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SDOW.US.md) - [NDAQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NDAQ.US.md)