---
title: "[260409] Why I'm Shorting Intel"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39797307.md"
description: "As of yesterday, $Intel(INTC.US) has seen a cumulative gain of 43.1% over 7 consecutive trading days. The drivers behind this surge are: ❶ Earnings expectations, with funds betting on an improvement in A18 yield rates and securing large orders. However, market sentiment towards Intel's financial data is pessimistic, with very low forecasts given; ❷ The potential success of its business transformation, which will be gradually validated by upcoming earnings data; ③ The intention to collaborate with Musk's Terafab, which was already reflected in the stock price when it rose to around 52..."
datetime: "2026-04-09T10:53:22.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39797307.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39797307.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39797307.md)
author: "[欧阳大叔](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/12946194.md)"
---

# [260409] Why I'm Shorting Intel

As of yesterday, $Intel(INTC.US) has accumulated a gain of 43.1% over 7 consecutive trading days. The drivers behind this surge are:

❶ Earnings expectations. Funds are betting on improved A18 yield rates and securing large orders. However, the market is not optimistic about Intel's financial data and has given extremely low forecasts;

❷ The driver of a successful business transformation. As earnings data comes out, it will gradually verify whether a successful transformation is possible;

❸ The intention to cooperate with Musk's Terafab. This was already reflected in the stock price when it rose to around 52. Remember the cooperation between $AMD(AMD.US) and Oqen Ai? That was just an imagined, fleeting beautiful vision, not a reason for long-term stock price support.

This is the core reason why I shorted it around $52 on April 7th.

The explosive surge on April 8th was not because it also had sudden positive news, but was caused by multiple factors:

❹ Musk Terafab cooperation (already priced in at $52) + Ceasefire (crude oil drop → tech stock valuation recovery, this is the key point) + Short squeeze + Breaking previous highs (54–55 range) triggering quantitative buying.

As for Intel's current stock price near $60, I believe its valuation is already severely overextended. Even the price after a potential earnings beat has been priced in early.

Intel's current valuation = "Future profit expectations × AI premium × Policy premium × Sentiment premium." This is also why I think it is overvalued and why I shorted it at $52 on April 7th. However, the sudden ceasefire was beyond my prediction. I thought the fighting would continue for two more days, with rising oil prices forcing Trump to negotiate, but I didn't expect Trump's ultimate tolerance for rising oil prices to be $110 (Brent crude futures), while my prediction was $125.

But I still stick to my shorting plan to this day:

❶ The war won't end like this; there is still room for fluctuations.

❷ Intel's overvalued valuation will be corrected by capital.

❸ I don't believe the future success of A18 will bring decisive change to Intel. Not to mention competitor AMD, in my understanding, the CPU is already a product in the late stage of an industry. The room for achieving a major breakthrough is very small. It will inevitably be iterated by a new form.

Yesterday, I also purchased more options, which is like adding to my position indirectly. I hope my understanding is correct.

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## Comments (107)

- **改玩固收FCN · 2026-04-21T10:12:02.000Z**: Don't short U.S. stocks, even if you're not bullish.
- **西瓜moko · 2026-04-16T15:11:01.000Z**: I cut my losses with a small deficit and added a short position at 66.5 today, yet it can still go up... My understanding has been overturned. The entire market sentiment right now is just fiery.
  - **欧阳大叔** (2026-04-16T15:26:31.000Z): Amazing Intel. The sentiment now is all waiting for the earnings report.
  - **西瓜moko** (2026-04-16T15:30:59.000Z): Can't figure it out. QQQ has been rebounding all the way and broke through its previous high. Besides the expectation of a ceasefire, is there really such a big positive catalyst?
  - **欧阳大叔** (2026-04-16T18:48:16.000Z): What's even more puzzling is that the trading volume is shrinking every day.
- **TD2008 · 2026-04-14T13:41:02.000Z**: Uncle, it finally pulled back. It might fluctuate in the next couple of days.
  - **欧阳大叔** (2026-04-14T13:50:49.000Z): It should be shocking.
- **股指比严格1:3 · 2026-04-14T00:42:29.000Z**: Why aren't you posting anymore? I support your view, remaining unfazed even when facing the condemnation of thousands.
- **小L同学 · 2026-04-13T13:58:56.000Z**: Uncle, what should we do now? Can't hold on much longer.
  - **王富贵_3NTd2P** (2026-04-13T16:09:00.000Z): Hahaha, you're the only honest one following him short. How does that feel? 🤔
  - **欧阳大叔** (2026-04-13T16:58:15.000Z): I'm also suffering a lot. 🥹
  - **欧阳大叔** (2026-04-13T16:59:17.000Z): Even if you want to exit, you have to wait until the second half.
- **买股票就是投资公司 · 2026-04-11T04:20:07.000Z**: You all like to short the hard ones. Semiconductor storage has strong certainty. Even if driven by sentiment, there's a premium and overvaluation, it's hard to come down in a short time because it can indeed make money! I think we can still short the soft persimmons, like Tesla, which only knows how
  - **小L同学** (2026-04-11T10:29:59.000Z): He's not worth this price; he'll definitely drop back after the earnings report.
  - **买股票就是投资公司** (2026-04-11T19:21:20.000Z): Look at how weak/overvalued Tesla is?
  - **小L同学** (2026-04-12T04:52:53.000Z): Intel is different; it's inherently very volatile. If you're bullish, then just buy it. I'm bearish, and I've shorted it anyway. I shorted it at 55.
- **浔阳忧郁三少 · 2026-04-09T13:58:58.000Z**: Got 10 tickets to play around with🤓
  - **欧阳大叔** (2026-04-09T15:34:54.000Z): We agreed, no crying if you lose money😂
  - **朵拉05** (2026-04-09T22:47:47.000Z): @Uncle Ouyang (Joke Edition) Uncle, I sold at a loss. My account lost half its value in two days, and I'm mentally devastated.
  - **欧阳大叔** (2026-04-09T23:28:54.000Z): I'm still holding on. In fact, the volume has already started to shrink today, and momentum has weakened.
- **朵拉05 · 2026-04-09T13:21:45.000Z**: If they keep releasing positive news, are they really going to force a short squeeze all the way to 65-70? @Uncle Ouyang (Joke Edition) 😰
  - **欧阳大叔** (2026-04-09T15:34:16.000Z): How is that possible? The 61.06 from a few days ago is most likely the short-term high. Only short positions buying to cover could cause such a sudden vertical spike. Those who hold on without getting
  - **朵拉05** (2026-04-09T15:40:42.000Z): Thank you for your comfort.
  - **欧阳大叔** (2026-04-09T15:54:46.000Z): Basically, we can confirm this level tomorrow. A few percentage points increase based on these worthless tweets? Institutions really treat retail investors like pigs. But when liquidity decreases, the
- **悟空勇闯纳斯达克 · 2026-04-09T13:03:33.000Z · 👍 1**: Intel is releasing news before the market opens again to pump the stock. This tactic seems very similar to the methods used by Chinese capital. So disgusting. There are market makers hunting short sellers.
  - **欧阳大叔** (2026-04-09T13:07:57.000Z): This is Intel's usual tactic; you'll get used to it once you like it.
  - **朵拉05** (2026-04-09T13:37:02.000Z): My mentality has collapsed.
  - **小L同学** (2026-04-09T14:04:40.000Z): Feels like a short squeeze! I knew something was wrong when it dropped pre-market. Definitely a lot of people were shorting, and then it just surged. So cheap!
- **胖虎叱咤老美 · 2026-04-09T12:12:55.000Z · 👍 1**: Uncle, what's your take on the storage sector? My short position on SanDisk is still struggling.
  - **欧阳大叔** (2026-04-09T13:06:47.000Z): Hold on
  - **欧阳大叔** (2026-04-09T15:38:05.000Z): At what price did you enter the market?
  - **拿不住就去进厂** (2026-04-13T13:54:36.000Z): Please increase the intensity of short selling
- **aboro · 2026-04-09T12:04:27.000Z · 👍 1**: Last year, the same kind of story and plot were happening in the Disney forum, and it was people like you who were posting bearish comments, influencing the decisions of the general retail investors. They could have avoided the trap or minimized their losses by selling short, but a group of small re
- **19rhT8 · 2026-04-09T11:35:43.000Z**: How low do you think this short-selling wave will go?
- **耳朵制造战争 · 2026-04-09T11:26:28.000Z · 👍 3**: Why do you always like to make money on the edge of such extreme market conditions? 🧐🧐🧐
  - **欧阳大叔** (2026-04-09T12:05:50.000Z): This is not an extreme market condition; in my view, it's a certain fact. Of course, it still needs time to be verified.
- **实习的交易员 · 2026-04-09T11:05:28.000Z**: Hope your analysis is correct, I want to buy more.