---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39818059.md"
description: "The mobile (ETF) is expected to be launched in May-June, with an estimated discount of around 30% off the spot price.III. Hard Supply Constraints: Capacity at Full Utilization, Expansion Extremely DifficultCapacity utilization: 50%-60% in 2020-2022 → >95% in 2026Q1Expansion cycle: 18 months (domestic) / 24 months (overseas), with high barriers for equipment, environmental assessment, and investment.Structural shortage: Production lines shifting to high-margin G.657A2, passive contraction in G.652D supply.No new capacity release before 2026Q4-2027Q1, leading to sustained tightness.IV. Operator Game Theory: Dual-Track Pricing, Wave of DefaultsSpot price 100 yuan vs. old long-term contract 20 yuan, a 5x price gap.Manufacturers would rather pay penalties to break contracts and sell on the spot market.Delayed procurement leads to doubled costs and compressed construction cycles.Centralized procurement prices will eventually converge with market prices.V. Cycle Judgment and RisksThe industry continues to underestimate the price increase; supply-demand imbalance far exceeds expectations.Support for high prices: rigid expansion constraints, diversified demand, product upgrades, global capacity reallocation.Earnings lag: High-price orders from Q1 → concentrated confirmation in Q2-Q3, with momentum likely to last 1-2 quarters $YOFC(06869.HK)$Corning(GLW.US)"
datetime: "2026-04-09T23:44:30.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39818059.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39818059.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39818059.md)
author: "[佩宁渊瑾财商成长系](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/17154496.md)"
---

# The mobile (ETF) is expected to be launched in May…


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## Comments (10)

- **看不懂不做 · 2026-04-10T02:00:11.000Z · 👍 1**: If the price drops after buying in the morning, can it be understood that funds have flowed to other stocks?
  - **道可道99** (2026-04-10T02:14:42.000Z): No, are you getting on the Changfei train now?
  - **看不懂不做** (2026-04-10T02:18:17.000Z): Yes, bought it this morning.
  - **自来也** (2026-04-10T02:35:35.000Z): You talk about it.