---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39852566.md"
description: "Recently, during the negotiation phase, I think it's unlikely that the two sides will reach an agreement. There's a significant gap between their red lines. The most probable scenario is that the US will first take a tough stance to intimidate, thereby increasing their bargaining chips. This could lead to localized friction, rising oil prices, and a short-term market correction, then the TACO script begins again...An escalation of conflict is unlikely. Trump faces midterm elections this year. If he loses control, the next two years will be tough. Controlling inflation and preventing oil prices from spiraling out of control is the top priority. Also, I believe in Master Trump. The opportunities he has given are truly more than all other presidents combined [/Riverside Trump.jpg].I'm preparing to free up some ammunition (capital), clear out high-volatility positions, and wait for a window to bottom-fish again. Although @京城Z先生 z-lao says 'inaction is better than rash action,' which I deeply agree with, after the turmoil in March, almost all my positions have been swapped over. My cost basis has already risen, so it's a good time to set this year's holding targets, then go to bed early and get up early, and stop watching the night market.$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)35% unchanged$Sandisk(SNDK.US)20%$Micron Tech(MU.US)10% bullish, originally 20% but last month's experience was really bad$Newmont(NEM.US)15%$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) and $AXT(AXTI.US)20%, bullish on LITE, will replace if I can buy back inPersonal plan does not constitute investment advice."
datetime: "2026-04-11T17:59:28.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39852566.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39852566.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39852566.md)
author: "[保温壶里泡枸杞](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/18888644.md)"
---

# Recently, during the negotiation phase, I think it…


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