---
title: "Analysis of the US-Iran War Situation and Market Impact (Updated 4/14)"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39891529.md"
description: "Timeline Date Event 2/28 US+Israel launch airstrikes, hitting key targets such as Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei is killed in the attack 2/28- Iran launches a large-scale counterattack with ballistic missiles+drones against Israeli territory and US military bases in the Middle East 4/7 The three parties reach a temporary agreement in Islamabad, announcing a two-week ceasefire 4/8 Trump announces ceasefire, Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz, global stock markets surge 4/12 Negotiations break down — Iran refuses to abandon its nuclear program, the US demands "unrestricted access" to Iranian territorial waters 4/12 Trump orders a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz..."
datetime: "2026-04-14T07:46:40.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39891529.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39891529.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39891529.md)
author: "[阿布咋办](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/104.md)"
---

# Analysis of the US-Iran War Situation and Market Impact (Updated 4/14)

## Timeline

Date

Event

2⁄28

The US and Israel launched airstrikes, hitting key targets such as Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed in the attack.

2⁄28\-

Iran retaliated massively against Israeli territory and US military bases in the Middle East with ballistic missiles and drones.

4⁄7

The three parties reached a temporary agreement in Islamabad, announcing a two-week ceasefire.

4⁄8

Donald Trump announced a ceasefire, Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and global stock markets surged.

4⁄12

Negotiations broke down — Iran refused to abandon its nuclear program, and the US demanded "unrestricted access" to Iranian territorial waters.

4⁄12

Donald Trump ordered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran called "piracy."

4⁄13

The US military blockade officially took effect, intercepting all vessels trading with Iran.

4⁄14

A second round of negotiations may be held within days, with tensions remaining high.

## Market Impact

-   **Oil Price**: Up about 50% since the war began, with Brent surging to $102/barrel and WTI to $104 after the April 13 blockade. The IEA called this "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market."  
    
-   **Stock Market**: On April 8, the day of the ceasefire, the Dow Jones recorded its largest single-day gain since last year, but global markets weakened again after the April 13 blockade.  
    
-   **Inflation Risk**: Persistently high oil prices are pushing up inflation expectations, which may prolong the high-interest-rate environment.  
    

## Transmission Path to US Tech Stocks

High oil prices → Rising inflation expectations → Interest rates remain high → Tech stock valuations face pressure.

This also partially explains why TSLA is down -10.9% over the past month and the overall US stock market is under pressure. It's not entirely a fundamental issue; geopolitical risk is the main source of pressure.

## Key Focus Points

1.  Whether a second round of negotiations will be initiated in the coming days.  
    
2.  The duration of the Strait of Hormuz blockade.  
    
3.  Whether oil prices can fall back below $90.  
    
4.  If a new ceasefire agreement is reached, a rebound similar to April 8 is expected.

### Related Stocks

- [DDM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DDM.US.md)
- [DIA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DIA.US.md)
- [DOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DOG.US.md)
- [SDOW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SDOW.US.md)
- [.DJI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.DJI.US.md)
- [TSLA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md)