--- title: "If you're tempted to buy IonQ today, take two minutes to look at a detail that's easily overlooked." type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39920726.md" description: "I almost wanted to buy today. I didn't buy in the end. IonQ rose 20% in a day, D-Wave rose 15%—but the real winner in this frenzy is NVIDIA, not these quantum companies. If you're tempted to chase quantum concept stocks today, the following matter will determine whether your money is in the wrong place. First, let's clarify what happened today: NVIDIA released an open-source quantum AI model called Ising. (Quantum computing: a new generation of computing that uses quantum mechanics principles for calculations, theoretically much faster than traditional computers in specific tasks..." datetime: "2026-04-15T05:18:02.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39920726.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39920726.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39920726.md) author: "[Fiona第一线](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/25149506.md)" --- # If you're tempted to buy IonQ today, take two minutes to look at a detail that's easily overlooked. I almost wanted to buy it today. I didn't in the end. IonQ rose 20% in a day, D-Wave rose 15% — but the real winner in this frenzy is NVIDIA, not these quantum companies. **If you're tempted to chase quantum concept stocks today, the following thing determines whether your money is going to the wrong place.** First, let's be clear about what happened today NVIDIA released an open-source quantum AI model called Ising. (Quantum computing: A new generation of computing that uses quantum mechanics principles for calculations, theoretically much faster than traditional computers on specific tasks. However, the biggest problem with quantum machines currently is the extremely high error rate; the machines make mistakes, so they are still in the laboratory stage.) **The Ising model solves the two core technical challenges of quantum computing — calibration (getting the quantum machine ready to work properly) and error correction (whether mistakes can be fixed).** In the past, a single calibration took days; Ising can compress that time to a few hours. Once the news broke, quantum concept stocks collectively surged: IonQ +20%, D-Wave +15%, Rigetti +11%. The Nasdaq had ten consecutive gains, the CNN Fear & Greed Index rose from 22 to 47 entering the neutral zone, and market sentiment is extremely optimistic. Seeing this, your first reaction might be — the quantum sector is taking off, should you get on board? But there's one detail most people didn't notice NVIDIA's official announcement listed a roster of institutions adopting the Ising model, including IonQ itself, as well as Harvard, Fermilab, and the UK's National Physical Laboratory. This isn't a strategic partnership; this is integration. IonQ's quantum machines, from today, are using NVIDIA's open-source calibration software. Put it this way with a different analogy and you'll understand. Imagine Apple one day releases an open-source mobile operating system, and then Samsung, Xiaomi, and OPPO all announce they are using this system — on the surface, every phone manufacturer is rising because there are more users and the system is better. But the real winner is Apple, because all the users of these phone manufacturers are now operating within the rules Apple defines. The profit margin for phone manufacturers shifts from how good my system is, to how much cheaper my hardware is than my competitors. What NVIDIA did to the quantum industry today is exactly this. Now look at IonQ's own numbers IonQ's full-year 2025 revenue is $130 million, with 2026 company guidance of $225-$245 million. Sounds like good growth, but the valuation reflected in the stock price is far ahead of revenue — D-Wave's forward P/S (price-to-sales ratio) is already at 95 times, extremely expensive. Rigetti is even more outrageous, with full-year 2025 revenue of only $7.09 million, down 34% from 2024. Moreover, from the beginning of this year to today (excluding today's surge), IonQ is down 22%, D-Wave down 35%, Rigetti down 23%. **Today's 20% isn't the start of some new trend, but a technical rebound after losing a third over the past three and a half months, amplified by NVIDIA's news.** My judgment, and how you should think Quantum computing itself will succeed — the fact that NVIDIA is willing to open-source a core model for it today is the best contrary evidence. But the ones making the most money won't be the small companies surging today like IonQ, D-Wave, and Rigetti. Once upstream giants start laying down the operating system layer, the valuation ceiling for downstream hardware companies will be compressed from the next NVIDIA (with immense imagination space) to a hardware manufacturer in the quantum era (reasonable valuation but no longer sexy). **What it means for you: If you're tempted to buy into the quantum sector, the real ticker you should consider is NVIDIA, not IonQ. NVIDIA today embedded itself into the foundation of the entire quantum industry — regardless of which quantum hardware manufacturer wins in the future, NVIDIA is in the foundation.** **If you absolutely must buy small stocks like IonQ — first set a clear profit-taking or stop-loss level for yourself. The most dangerous thing about chasing a stock that's up 20% isn't it falling back, it's you not knowing when to get off.** In one sentence Today's biggest gainers are the IonQs, but the most worth buying is NVIDIA. These two things are not contradictory — on the contrary, the former's surge is precisely because the latter embedded them into its ecosystem. I don't hold any quantum sector stocks, and I didn't add any today. But **if someone asks me which quantum stock to buy, my answer is — NVDA.** $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $IonQ(IONQ.US) ### Related Stocks - [IONQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IONQ.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [NVDL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDL.US.md) - [07788.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07788.HK.md) - [07388.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07388.HK.md) - [NVDY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDY.US.md) - [NVDD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDD.US.md) - [NVDX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDX.US.md) - [NVDQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDQ.US.md) - [QBTS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QBTS.US.md) - [IONQ+.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IONQ+.US.md) - [QBTS+.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QBTS+.US.md) - [NVD.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVD.DE.md) ## Comments (2) - **烽火vs诸侯 · 2026-04-15T16:58:43.000Z · 👍 1**: One has a market cap of five trillion, the other has a market cap of over ten billion. I choose the smaller one. The key is that they already have commercial implementation, revenue, and growth expectations. What's there to be afraid of? - **小猫妮 · 2026-04-15T08:42:41.000Z · 👍 1**: These small-cap stocks are all for swing trading; just look at the previous trend and you'll know. Last year, Jensen Huang said quantum computing still has a long way to go, and immediately the small-cap stocks plummeted 50% within a week, but then quickly rebounded and broke new highs.