---
title: "Stock Live Trading P182: Too Much Complaining Harms Your Health"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39961296.md"
description: "It's really frustrating. The day before yesterday, I thought US stocks had peaked, so I sold all my US stock-related holdings, only keeping defense and precious metals stocks. But then yesterday, US stocks continued to surge. Not only did I miss out on the rally by selling, but I also bought more precious metals and defense stocks halfway up the hill. This is just speechless and makes no sense. Everyone knows the fundamentals of US stocks are far worse than before, yet they can still hit new highs. Isn't this as ridiculous as last April? The fundamentals keep deteriorating, the stock market keeps climbing, and the bubble keeps inflating. In the end, won't it be retail investors left holding the bag? I thought US stocks were in a bubble last April, and I still think they are in a bubble this year..."
datetime: "2026-04-16T08:46:45.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39961296.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39961296.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39961296.md)
author: "[股神小顾](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/13638348.md)"
---

# Stock Live Trading P182: Too Much Complaining Harms Your Health

It's truly painful. The day before yesterday, I thought the U.S. stock market had peaked, so I sold all my U.S.-related holdings, keeping only defense and precious metals stocks. But yesterday, the U.S. market continued to surge wildly. Not only did I miss the rally by selling, but I also added more precious metals and defense stocks halfway up the hill.

  
This is just frustrating and illogical. Everyone knows the fundamentals of the U.S. market are far worse than before, yet it can still hit new highs. Isn't this as ridiculous as last April? Fundamentals are deteriorating, the stock market is climbing higher, the bubble is inflating, and in the end, won't it be the retail investors left holding the bag? I thought the U.S. market was in a bubble last April, and I still think it's in a bubble this year, but this bubble just keeps getting bigger.

  
Going long at this point is essentially playing with fire. I still believe gold can reach $7,000 or $8,000 in the future, and I still believe the defense sector is in a super cycle this year. I'm not afraid of this temporary pullback. I believe in the trend, and I believe I'm on the side of truth. Although the timing of this cycle is hard to predict—someone as brilliant as Newton could calculate the trajectory of celestial bodies but couldn't calculate the madness of human nature—we can at least infer that this is the final frenzy.

  
For example, Amazon definitely won't be able to rise much because its fundamentals have already deteriorated. If it's forcibly pulled up to its previous high, it certainly won't break through. That's why I said the day before yesterday was a good time to short Amazon. In a few months, it will definitely fall below $200. That's the ironclad reality.

  
So, let's not let excessive complaints harm our health; we should take a long-term view. Let's take another year as a cycle and see if I can recover significantly and whether the U.S. market will crash.

### Related Stocks

- [AMZN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMZN.US.md)
- [AMZU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMZU.US.md)

## Comments (42)

- **滚雪球的旅途 · 2026-04-17T06:40:44.000Z**: Can NVIDIA and Tesla be shorted?
- **顾神与chatgtp · 2026-04-16T13:43:27.000Z**: This passage is actually no longer "analyzing the market"; it's a typical mix of emotion, obsession, and self-justification. You might think what he says "makes some sense," but that's exactly the problem—sounds right ≠ makes money.Let me break it down for you; it's crucial.1️⃣ The b
- **杰尼杰尼6758 · 2026-04-16T12:27:02.000Z**: Originally planned to clear and short a bit tonight, forget it, I'll listen to God Gu.
- **Future_629 · 2026-04-16T11:46:59.000Z**: Thank you
- **anon_dwbh · 2026-04-16T11:29:37.000Z**: Combining with what God Gu said yesterday, oh no, God Gu has become a spare part for futures cadres😭
- **黑化的交易员 · 2026-04-16T11:00:45.000Z**: What's wrong with the fundamentals? Is it earning less money or has the growth rate turned negative?👽 I want to learn
- **图图要有耐心 · 2026-04-16T10:45:59.000Z**: Is Gu Shen actually losing or making money? The Douyin posts still show profits, what about the Longbridge bros? 🤣🤣🤣
- **不吃香菜的交易员 · 2026-04-16T10:18:59.000Z · 👍 1**: GuShen reviews the market every day, just like continuously drawing tangents on the graph of a complex function, and always treats the most recent tangent as the future trend.
- **赚美元中国花 · 2026-04-16T09:50:14.000Z**: Go all-in short on the flip side, opportunity knocks but once
- **ciibzzz · 2026-04-16T09:31:54.000Z · 👍 1**: Major positive for Amazon
- **学着理解这个世界 · 2026-04-16T09:18:33.000Z**: Really, stock god? I really want to bottom-fish Amazon at 200 again, I didn't make enough this time. Can we do it again? Is there such a good thing?
- **巴菲特max · 2026-04-16T09:15:51.000Z**: Amazon has been blessed by the gods, luckily it's not divine punishment.
- **皇牌交易员 · 2026-04-16T09:15:28.000Z**: Talent
- **月落西湖 · 2026-04-16T09:10:52.000Z · 👍 1**: @京城Z先生 Little Gu is stubbornly holding onto precious metals🤣 How come he stubbornly holds on when he shouldn't, and lets go when he should?🤣
  - **不吃香菜的交易员** (2026-04-16T09:55:22.000Z): Last year, Gu Shen's record with UNH was about three months. In the long run, being bullish on precious metals is a correct but empty statement; it depends on how he executes.
- **葫芦墩墩管理员 · 2026-04-16T09:09:01.000Z**: Why say Amazon's fundamentals are deteriorating? I don't see any changes besides the AI investment.
  - **葫芦墩墩管理员** (2026-04-16T10:07:47.000Z): Adding one more point about Amazon: 1. Cloud chips, selling computing power, I think this area has long-term explosive potential. 2. Amazon's investment in AI large models is absolutely unparalleled, 
- **芝士卷 · 2026-04-16T09:08:00.000Z · 👍 1**: Putting aside everything else, you really know how to find fun for everyone.
- **发财财多米 · 2026-04-16T09:07:16.000Z · 👍 1**: Fortunately, the stock god sold Microsoft early.
  - **巴菲特max** (2026-04-16T09:16:25.000Z): No wonder it's risen so much these past two days.
  - **雄也_sCm210** (2026-04-16T22:33:03.000Z): So moved
  - **滚雪球的旅途** (2026-04-17T06:39:29.000Z): No wonder, I was trapped for three months, and suddenly there's a profit. So he's gone. It's indeed an ironclad reality.
- **天才交易员9号 · 2026-04-16T09:02:40.000Z**: For the defense sector to rise, there needs to be a war. If there's a war, interest rates can't be cut, or may even be raised. Without rate cuts or with rate hikes, precious metals face pressure. If you're bullish on the defense sector, you shouldn't be bullish on precious metals. That's contradicto
  - **葫芦墩墩管理员** (2026-04-16T09:06:11.000Z): If there's war, invest in defense; if there's no war, invest in metals. This logic is perfectly consistent, you can't lose money.
- **ting666 · 2026-04-16T09:01:05.000Z · 👍 1**: Newton was also a naive investor, and one of the most famous naive investors in history.