--- title: "ATFX: Ceasefire deadline approaches, US military seizes Iranian cargo ship, gold rebound reverses again" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40037574.md" description: "ATFX: As the new week begins, tensions between the US and Iran have escalated again. The United States announced on Sunday that it had seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to break through the blockade, and Iran immediately stated it would retaliate. At the same time, US President Donald Trump issued a threat on Friday: unless a long-term agreement to end the war can be reached by Wednesday, he may terminate the ceasefire with Iran. Affected by this, the price of gold, which had previously rebounded due to ceasefire expectations, turned lower this morning. During the session, the gold price fell by 1.9% at one point, breaking below $4,740 per ounce, erasing all gains from last week before recovering some of the losses. Meanwhile, oil and natural gas prices soared..." datetime: "2026-04-20T10:29:18.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40037574.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/40037574.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/40037574.md) author: "[交易员说](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/25527811.md)" --- # ATFX: Ceasefire deadline approaches, US military seizes Iranian cargo ship, gold rebound reverses again ATFX: As a new week begins, tensions between the US and Iran have escalated once again. The US announced on Sunday that it had seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to break through a blockade, with Iran subsequently vowing retaliation. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump issued a threat on Friday: unless a long-term agreement to end the war can be reached by Wednesday, he may terminate the ceasefire with Iran. As a result, the price of gold, which had rebounded earlier on ceasefire expectations, turned lower this morning. The price fell as much as 1.9% during the session, dropping below $4740 per ounce, erasing all of last week's gains before recovering some losses. At the same time, oil and natural gas prices surged, US stock index futures declined, and the US Dollar Index rose as much as 0.3%, adding extra pressure on dollar-denominated gold. ![Gold](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/745460627399129163226b765da77c5b?x-oss-process=style/lg) ▲ATFX Chart The latest developments have jeopardized the prospects for potential peace talks scheduled to be held in Islamabad this week. While Trump stated he saw an opportunity for a deal, he also renewed his threat to destroy Iran's power plants and bridges. Tehran, for its part, said there was no "clear" prospect for productive negotiations. In recent weeks, the failure to reach a lasting diplomatic agreement to end the war has increased market volatility, and the latest events once again highlight the fragility of the ceasefire agreement set to expire on Tuesday. The protracted conflict has triggered an unprecedented energy supply shock, exacerbating inflationary pressures and making it more likely that central banks will keep interest rates unchanged or even raise them—a negative for non-yielding gold. Since the war broke out in late February, the price of gold has fallen by about 10%. Gold's Rebound Becomes Fragile Last week's rebound in gold prices was primarily built on market optimism regarding ceasefire talks, rather than any fundamental improvement. The fragility of this rebound is reflected in the following two aspects: The driving force is "expectation" rather than "fact": Last week's rise stemmed from market bets on easing tensions in the Middle East. Once those expectations are dashed, prices quickly give up their gains. The ceasefire agreement itself is extremely fragile: The core contradictions between the US and Iran remain unresolved. Iran has clearly stated there is no "clear" prospect for productive negotiations and is prepared for a resumption of hostilities. The sustainability of the ceasefire agreement, set to expire on Tuesday, was already in doubt. Iranian state media explicitly denied it would participate in a second round of talks, directly shattering market peace expectations. Meanwhile, the US military's seizure and firing upon an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, with Iran vowing revenge, turned geopolitical risk from an "expected concern" into a "fait accompli." Safe-haven funds flowed back into the US dollar, pushing the Dollar Index higher rapidly, directly pressuring dollar-denominated gold. ATFX's view points out that in the short term, geopolitical news and Federal Reserve policy expectations remain the core trading logic for the market. The expiration of the ceasefire agreement on April 22nd is the most critical near-term time point. If the conflict continues but remains contained, the market will digest the new normal of "fighting while talking." After a spike, gold prices may fall back due to "exhaustion of positive news." Only a full-scale, uncontrolled spillover of the conflict (such as a sustained energy supply disruption) could allow gold prices to break through resistance and embark on an independent upward trend. The current gold market can be understood as a battlefield where bulls and bears are locked in a fierce tug-of-war. In the short term, bears have a slight upper hand due to a strong dollar and fading hopes for an interest rate cut. However, in the medium to long term, bulls have the solid backing of safe-haven demand and "de-dollarization." Short-term traders need to be highly vigilant, closely tracking developments after the ceasefire expires on April 22nd, as well as this Tuesday's US retail sales data, which is related to the Fed's interest rate cut outlook. Market volatility could be very high, and the risk of chasing rallies or selling into declines is elevated. If the situation develops as institutions predict—"fighting while talking"—gold prices are likely to remain in a wide range for some time, until a new decisive force emerges to break the deadlock. ATFX Risk Disclosure: The views, scenario analysis, and market judgments presented in this article are for reference and discussion purposes only and do not constitute any form of investment advice, trading recommendation, or endorsement of any financial product. ### Related Stocks - [07299.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07299.HK.md) - [GLD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLD.US.md) - [.IXIC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.IXIC.US.md)