--- type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40059328.md" description: "1. Let's talk about why I'm so certain that SPX 6316.9 and NVDA 163.5 on 3/30 were the bottom, and share my views for April and May.US stocks have a 100-week/250-week moving average rule, meaning the S&P on average experiences a 10%-20% pullback every 2 years, and a major correction of around 30% every 3-5 years.Starting from October 2025, I noticed the weekly chart slope of the SPX gradually steepening, so after finishing my last Tesla trade around 470+ at year-end, I pretty much stopped trading.It was only in March that I opened my trading software to observe the trend. After the Iran war, the SPX gradually approached the 100-week moving average (6410). Therefore, when it dropped from 6410 to 6316 on 3/30, I started going long. After a strong bullish candle on 3/31, I was basically certain this was the absolute bottom. (See my post from 3/30).2. Outlook for the market:After March 30th, the weekly chart saw three consecutive gains to new highs. Based on S&P historical experience, after touching the 100-week moving average, the monthly K index usually remains strong for several months. There might only be minor pullbacks (3-5% at most), and it won't plunge back to 6300. This year's top is likely around 7400 or slightly higher.So there's no need to wait for a major correction; it's not going to happen. When it dips, you should actively go long!3. My operations (for reference only)The major indices will close their monthly charts in April. It's highly unlikely they will significantly exceed the current highs, maybe 7180/7200 at most, or perhaps the peak is already 7147 (mentioned 7150 as a strong resistance in a previous post).Based on this, my recent operations will be relatively conservative. If there's no opportunity, I'll just lift weights and watch TV every day, not trading.Let's wait and see in May!If TSLA doesn't break the 409 high, I'll temporarily stop trading my floating positions. I still see 474 for this year.For other giants, I'll play it by ear, based on my limited understanding.I think the giants that can still offer swing trading opportunities this year are:AMZN/AMD/NVDA/TSLA/APPL, especially Amazon.Since I don't trade small-cap stocks, just a mention: finance/software/pharmaceuticals might also see catch-up rallies.4. When will the next crash be, and how to seize it?Waiting is actually a core competency.The next retest of the 100-week moving average might be next year, or the year after. If it's a 10% drop from 7400, that would be at least down to 6660.I will continue to wait for the next opportunity and continue to bottom-fish.If you look at intraday charts, you'll think stocks are too hard to grasp. Of course, there are many 0DTE option experts in the community, but at least I'm not one.If you look more at weekly and monthly charts to evaluate a stock, you'll feel much calmer. There are still many opportunities hard to grasp, and I often make mistakes too. But I avoid major mistakes, control drawdowns, buy heavily into good companies when they're cheap, and sell in batches when they're expensive. In the future, I'll still only trade those few good companies I mentioned, hold heavy positions in the underlying shares, not trade 2X leveraged products, and only use 5% of my position for options.Here are the estimated high and low points for the giants based on EPS and PE:NVDA 164.27-220/230AMZN 196-270/280TSLA 337-474MSFT 356-480Sharing my shallow understanding here, hope you don't mind." datetime: "2026-04-21T08:48:01.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40059328.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/40059328.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/40059328.md) author: "[钢铁纪律](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/13301109.md)" --- # 1. Let's talk about why I'm so certain that SPX 63… ### Related Stocks - [AMZN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMZN.US.md) - [SPXC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPXC.US.md) - [TSLA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [AMD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMD.US.md) - [AAPL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPL.US.md) - [MSFT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFT.US.md) - [NVD.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVD.DE.md) ## Comments (10) - **怎么办 · 2026-04-21T14:53:52.000Z**: Good article - **Seven. · 2026-04-21T09:28:44.000Z**: Boss - **MAURY · 2026-04-21T09:26:29.000Z**: Isn't it necessary for Tesla to pull out a bit before the earnings report? - **钢铁纪律** (2026-04-21T09:29:55.000Z): I suggest taking some profits; I rarely bet on earnings reports. Don't know if it's good or bad. - **四顾 · 2026-04-21T08:55:45.000Z**: Teacher, can you talk about NVIDIA? Is this stock being shaken out? - **钢铁纪律** (2026-04-21T09:02:29.000Z): NVIDIA is the market; if the market doesn't rise, it won't rise either. - **四顾** (2026-04-21T09:06:25.000Z): Okay, thank you. Teacher, yesterday there was a large buy order of over 4 billion in the Nasdaq. Any thoughts on that? - **钢铁纪律** (2026-04-21T09:11:49.000Z): There are too many people who missed the rally; a slight dip brings in a flood of buy orders. - **赚不尽亏得完 · 2026-04-21T08:52:07.000Z**: 🤝