--- title: "Intel longs over the next two days: pricing has put the \"asymmetry\" on the table" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40062823.md" description: "$Intel(INTC.US) will enter the final 48 hours before the after-hours earnings report on 4/23 (Thursday)..." datetime: "2026-04-21T10:59:25.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40062823.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/40062823.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/40062823.md) author: "[无问西东](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/26444977.md)" --- # Intel longs over the next two days: pricing has put the "asymmetry" on the table $Intel(INTC.US) will enter the final 48 hours before the **4/23 (Thursday) after-market earnings report**. If you hold a long position in INTC, this article is not about "whether to hedge" but "how to hedge"—because market pricing has already made the risk asymmetry clear: - Stock price $65.88, YTD +74%, near a 26-year high - RSI 78 overheated - Analyst consensus target price $51, **22% lower than the current price** - Futures/options implied **±11-12% post-earnings swing** - Options market signals were bearish yesterday (Net Put purchase $1.41M, see combination identification.md) **One detail to be particularly wary of**: The analyst target price of $51 is so much lower than the current price, meaning Street's fundamental valuation models haven't caught up with the stock's run. In this situation, the earnings report is a reconciliation—if it matches, the run continues; if not, it reverts. The ±11-12% implied volatility indicates the market is already pricing in a "potential post-earnings riot." **Three catalysts (Street's perspective)** 1\. **18A Yield and Cost**—CFO Zinsner previously stated: current yield supports shipments but not normal gross margins, targeting to reach cost goals by end of 2026 and align with industry average by 2027. This call needs to listen for updated yield data and 14A customer signals. 2\. **Foundry External Customers**—The market is waiting for the first formal commitment, not just pipeline. The difference in wording between "Pipeline" and "commitment" is key in the conference call. 3\. **Xeon Server CPU**—KeyBanc data shows Intel+AMD server CPU capacity is basically sold out, lead times for high-end models are 6 months, and prices are up +10% year-to-date. If guidance here is strong, it can offset some of the drag from Foundry losses. **Yesterday's Options Market Signals** 10:09 Independent Buy Put $53 DTE39 (OTM 19.6%, $612k)—Far OTM tail insurance, institutions aren't hedging daily volatility, they're betting "a tail event with a pullback exceeding 20% could happen." 14:11/14:34 Same institution Sell Put $62 + Buy Put $59 (DTE25, contract ratio 1:9)—Called a spread but essentially a net Put purchase, $800k net outflow, Sell Put only to reduce cost Net outflow $1.41M, direction bearish Institutions are telling us with real money: even with YTD +74%, they still believe the asymmetric downside post-earnings requires paying Theta for insurance. As a long, not hedging = letting institutions bear this insurance cost for you while you run naked. **Option 1 · Protective Put (Pay fixed cost to retain upside)** Tool: Buy Put 260530 $62 DTE 39 · Covers downside -5.9% (65.88 → 62) Hedge size: Position Delta 50-70% Trigger scenario: Earnings miss (breaks through ±11-12% pricing lower bound ≈ $58) / falls below $62 institutional Put concentration zone Why $62 and not $60 or $65: $62 is exactly the upper bound of the institutional Put spread identified yesterday, defined by the institutions themselves as "the first line worth protecting." Following the institutions' strike selection minimizes error. **Option 2 · Zero-Cost Collar (Cap upside for zero-cost protection)** Sell leg: Sell Call 260530 $72 (current price +9.3%, above the +11-12% implied volatility upper bound) Buy leg: Buy Put 260530 $62 Net cost: Approximately $0 There's a counterintuitive point to clarify here: **I placed the sell leg at $72 instead of $70**. The reason is, if Intel's earnings significantly exceed expectations and gap up +12%, the stock price would surge to around $73-74—a $70 Call would be forcibly exercised, missing the gap. $72 leaves a little buffer, not capturing the full gap but not losing it entirely. Risk: If there's a major positive catalyst like a Foundry spin-off combined with earnings exceeding expectations leading to consecutive sharp rallies, $72 will still cap the upside. You need to decide in advance if you're willing to cap gains in this "extreme positive + extreme upside" scenario. Still bullish on fundamentals, worried about downside—Option 2 (Collar $62/$72) zero cost Uncertain about direction, worried about downside but don't want to cap upside—Option 1 (Protective Put $62) pay a little cost to retain upside Judging RSI 78 + TP $51 is already the top—Directly reduce position by 30-50%, don't use hedging as a substitute for position reduction Options pricing doesn't lie. YTD +74%, TP 22% below current price, implied volatility ±11-12%, institutions paying Theta to buy Puts—these four facts are laid out together. As a long, if you still pretend not to see them, you're just betting that past luck will continue. ### Related Stocks - [AMD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMD.US.md) - [BANC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BANC.US.md) - [INTC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/INTC.US.md) - [AMDL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMDL.US.md) - [04335.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/04335.HK.md) - [BANC-F.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BANC-F.US.md)