--- title: "Sold 70% of Tesla, why didn't I sell all?" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40090229.md" description: "Yesterday, I already broke down all the common fundamentals of Tesla's Q1 earnings report for everyone: delivery falling short of expectations, a significant decline in energy storage, gross margin hitting a bottom, and the four major business lines of physical AI entering a verification period. These are all publicly available market information, and I won't repeat them today. This article only answers three questions I didn't address yesterday: 1. What were the quantitative trigger conditions for my 70% reduction at the high point? 2. Why didn't I liquidate the entire position, and why precisely set $300 as the buy-in line? 3. Tonight's earnings report..." datetime: "2026-04-22T08:07:24.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40090229.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/40090229.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/40090229.md) author: "[潘驴邓晓闲缺一](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/27015735.md)" --- # Sold 70% of Tesla, why didn't I sell all? Yesterday, I already broke down all the general fundamentals of Tesla's Q1 earnings report for everyone: **deliveries falling short of expectations, energy storage significantly declining, gross margins hitting bottom, and the four major business lines of physical AI** entering a validation period. These are all publicly available market information, and I won't repeat them today. This article only answers three questions I didn't cover yesterday: 1\. What were the **quantitative triggers** for my 70% reduction at the high point? 2\. Why didn't I sell out completely, and why did I **precisely set $300 as the buy line**? 3\. For tonight's earnings report, **which data points could refresh my view**? I. Why I Sold 70%: Three Hard Metrics That Triggered My Reduction None of my operations are based on "feelings"; they are all based on quantitative thresholds. I reduced my position by 70% in batches from the end of 2025 to March 2026 because three metrics simultaneously fell below my bottom line. **1\. Auto Business Growth Redline Breached for Two Consecutive Quarters** The minimum requirements for Tesla's auto business are: **full-year deliveries YoY ≥5%, and quarterly auto gross margin (excluding credits) ≥16%**. When both metrics break down, a position reduction is mandatory. – 2025 full-year deliveries: 1.635 million vehicles, YoY growth only 0.6%, breaching the 5% redline. – 2026 Q1 auto gross margin market consensus: 14.3%, down 3.6 percentage points QoQ, breaching the 16% redline. – Additional note: Cybertruck's real demand is also below expectations. Of the 7,071 Cybertrucks registered in the US in Q4 2025, SpaceX alone purchased 1,279, accounting for 18%—nearly one-fifth of sales came from internal related-party transactions. Uploading... Add image description, optional, max 50 characters **2\. Robotaxi Progress Deviates from Public Commitments by Over 6 Months** My tracking thresholds for Robotaxi are: **actual operating vehicles ≥ 50% of public commitment, and proportion of operations without safety drivers ≥ 30%**. – Musk's Q4 2025 commitment: Robotaxi to cover dozens of cities by the end of 2026. – Current actual progress: Operating only in Austin, fleet size 30-50 vehicles, proportion without safety drivers 25%. Both metrics are below target. **3\. Capital Expenditure Exceeds My Acceptable Upper Limit by 54%** My acceptable upper limit for Tesla's annual capital expenditure is **$15 billion**. Exceeding this significantly increases equity dilution risk. – Q4 2025 earnings guidance: 2026 capital expenditure "over $20 billion," a 54% increase from the previous market expectation of $13 billion. – And this figure does not include the initial $5 billion investment for Terafab and the 100GW solar factory. All three of the above metrics were triggered before March 2026, hence I executed the 70% reduction plan. II. Why I Didn't Sell Out Completely, and Why $300 is My Buy Line The remaining core position and the $300 buy plan are also based on quantifiable valuation and certainty, not faith. **1\. Valuation at $300: Already Fully Prices in All Short-Term Negatives** A $300 share price corresponds to a market cap of $1.13 trillion. After breaking down the business valuation, this is already a very pessimistic pricing: – Traditional auto business: Based on 2026 deliveries of 1.61 million vehicles and net profit per vehicle of $2,000, corresponding to $322 billion. – Energy business: Based on 2026 energy storage deployment of 50 GWh and net profit per GWh of $5 million, corresponding to $2.5 billion. – The remaining $783 billion already fully prices in all the option value of FSD, Robotaxi, Optimus, and Terafab. – Historical comparison: Tesla's lowest point in January 2024 was $222, corresponding to a PE of 128x based on 2024 expected net profit at that time. The current $300 corresponds to a PE of 203x based on 2026 expected net profit. Considering the progress of the physical AI business, the valuation is not overestimated. **2\. Two Incremental Catalysts Expected to Materialize in 2026** The core reason I didn't sell out completely is that there are two catalysts **that might materialize this year and contribute quantifiable revenue**, which are not fully priced in by institutions currently: – FSD EU rollout: Approved in the Netherlands, full EU application submitted in May, expected to go live in summer. EU Tesla fleet size is 5 million vehicles. Assuming a 20% subscription rate at $1,200/year, this adds $1.2 billion in annual revenue. – Cybercab mass production: Mass production began this month at the Texas factory. This is the world's first dedicated Robotaxi vehicle, marking Tesla's transition from the retrofit phase to the dedicated vehicle mass production phase. **3\. Physical AI Business: Three Mass Production Milestones in 2026** I believe Tesla's long-term value lies in physical AI, and 2026 is a crucial year for this business to move from concept to mass production: – Cybercab: Mass production began in April at the Texas Gigafactory, initial capacity ~1,000 vehicles/year, planned for commercial operation in Austin by the end of 2026. – Optimus Gen 3: Released in March 2026, designed for mass production. A production line with 1 million units/year capacity will be built by the end of 2026, with external sales starting in 2027. – AI5 chip: Mass production in the second half of 2026, to be used in Tesla vehicles and Optimus, expected to reduce autonomous driving computing costs by 70%. III. Q1 Earnings: Three Data Points That Will Determine My Actions As mentioned yesterday, data like deliveries, revenue, and energy storage are already fully expected by the market and won't change my actions. Therefore, I will focus on three data points: Uploading... Add image description, optional, max 50 characters Currently, institutional divergence on Tesla has reached an extreme: Deutsche Bank is bullish at $465, Barclays is neutral at $360, and UBS upgraded from sell to neutral at $352. I'm not siding with any institution. I'm simply writing out my own trading system, quantitative metrics, and operational rules in full for your reference. IV. Actionable Plan for Reference **Current Position**: Core position unchanged, holding 30% cash waiting for buying opportunities. **Buying Conditions**: If the stock price falls below $300, buy in batches, adding 5% for every $10 drop. This article is compiled based on public information and institutional research reports and does not constitute any investment advice. The stock market carries risks; invest with caution. 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