--- title: "ATFX: Crude oil rebound approaches a key watershed: Geopolitical risks still provide support, but demand concerns limit the upside." type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40130976.md" description: "ATFX: Crude oil has once again become the market focus this week. The driving force behind it is not just a single piece of news, but the simultaneous impact of several main themes: the Middle East situation, shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, changes in US refined oil inventories, and the global demand outlook. According to Reuters, Brent crude oil once rose above $103 per barrel this week, while US crude oil also returned to around $94. The market is mainly trading on the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations and the continued risk of disruption to transportation in the Strait of Hormuz (source: Reuters). This indicates that the core of the current rise in oil prices remains the geopolitical risk premium..." datetime: "2026-04-23T10:14:25.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40130976.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/40130976.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/40130976.md) author: "[交易员说](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/25527811.md)" --- # ATFX: Crude oil rebound approaches a key watershed: Geopolitical risks still provide support, but demand concerns limit the upside. **ATFX:** Crude oil has once again become the market focus this week. The driving force behind it is not just a single piece of news, but the simultaneous impact of several main themes: the Middle East situation, shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, changes in US refined product inventories, and the global demand outlook. According to Reuters, Brent crude rose above $103 per barrel this week at one point, and US crude also returned to around $94. The market is mainly trading on the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations and the continued risk of disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz (source: Reuters). This indicates that the core of the current oil price increase is still the geopolitical risk premium. Fundamentally, the importance of the Strait of Hormuz dictates that as long as the situation does not genuinely ease, it will be difficult for oil prices to cool down quickly. Reuters points out that this strait handles about one-fifth of global oil transportation flow. Once shipping is persistently obstructed, the market's concern is not just how much supply is lost in the short term, but whether there will be a risk of larger-scale disruption in the future (source: Reuters). At the same time, the larger-than-expected decline in US gasoline and distillate inventories has further reinforced the market's judgment of tight short-term supply (source: Reuters). ATFX analysts believe this means the current support for oil prices does not come solely from the war news itself, but from the real pressure formed jointly by "unstable transportation + tight inventories." However, this round of rebound in crude oil is not without hidden worries. Another Reuters analysis mentions that if high oil prices persist for too long, they will gradually erode consumption, transportation, and manufacturing activities, ultimately suppressing demand itself (source: Reuters). This is also why the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from various countries this week is particularly important. If manufacturing and services data in Europe and the US continue to weaken, the market will start to worry that the oil price increase is evolving from a "supply shock" into "demand destruction." ATFX analysts believe the biggest test for crude oil going forward is not whether new geopolitical news will emerge, but whether high oil prices have already started to harm real economic activity. This will determine whether this round of increase can continue to expand. ▲ATFX Chart From a technical chart structure perspective, the current US crude oil price has clearly shaken off the suppression of the previous downtrend channel and has stabilized and rebounded from the **$86.77** level, indicating that short-term bearish pressure has eased somewhat. The price is currently stable above the **$91.47 support level** and has rebounded to **around $94**, showing the market is leaning towards a short-term recovery. If bullish momentum continues, the first important target above will be the **$102.00 resistance level**. This level is not only a key horizontal pressure point in the chart but also an important watershed for previous price conversions. If it can be effectively broken through subsequently, it means this round of increase will no longer be just a technical rebound but has the opportunity to further open up upside space. On the other hand, if the price lacks momentum above $94 and falls back again, then **$91.47** will become the first observation point for the short term. If this level is lost, it means the current rebound structure is weakening, and the price may revisit the **$86.77** level, i.e., the second support area in the chart. In other words, at this stage, the technical picture of crude oil has shifted from a unilateral decline to a phase of "recovery above support, but trend reversal not yet fully confirmed." ATFX analysts believe that current crude oil is better understood as being in a key transition zone: holding above $91.47, bulls still have a chance to continue challenging $102; if it falls back below $91.47, it indicates this rebound is still more of a recovery within the downtrend. In summary, the reason crude oil deserves close attention this week is not only because of the price rebound but also because it is at a triple intersection of "fundamental support, technical recovery, but lingering demand-side questions." In the short term, Middle East risks, strait shipping disruptions, and tight inventories will still provide bottom support for oil prices. But whether it can continue to rise in the medium term depends on whether global economic data can prove that demand remains resilient. For the market, the real core issue for crude oil now is no longer "why is it rising," but "after it rises, can demand sustain it?" This will also determine whether US crude oil will challenge $102 next or return to consolidate within the $91.47 to $86.77 range. ATFX Disclaimer: The views, scenario analysis, and market judgments presented in this article are for reference and exchange purposes only and do not constitute any form of investment advice, trading recommendation, or endorsement of any financial product. ### Related Stocks - [BNO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BNO.US.md) - [DBO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DBO.US.md) - [SCO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SCO.US.md) - [UCO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UCO.US.md) - [USL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/USL.US.md) - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/USO.US.md) - [WTID.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/WTID.US.md) - [WTIU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/WTIU.US.md)